EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[tpr1967]

I see it moving a little more to the north then northeast right now. I see it maybe moving more to the nnw over the next 24 hrs just my take.

[NDG]

Yeah, it should be coming ashore tonight

[KWT]

Yeah I'm still seeing a slow but steady drift to the NE whilst the other circulation heads westwards inland that was over the Sw Caribbean. Probably going to have another 6-9hrs where it could become a tropical depression, which IMO it is right now but its not upto me is it!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN
CENTER NEAR 10N86W WHERE A SURFACE LOW 1006 MB IS ANALYZED.
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BAND OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND IT
APPEARS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DEVELOPING. THE LOW IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE POSITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN DEPICTED IN OUR MARINE
PRODUCTS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
LOW WILL DRIFT ON A N TRACK WHICH COULD MOVE IT ONSHORE AS SOON
AS 12 HOURS OR AS MUCH AS 48 HOURS AS THE NICARAGUAN COAST LIES
ALMOST DUE N TO S ALONG 86W. THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE OVER
THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WHERE THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING 25 KT...AND I FORECAST A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 30 KT ON
PREVIOUS HIGH SEAS PACKAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN IS SHIFTING W WITH TIME AS A TROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SO ANY REMNANTS OF THIS LOW MAY
TURN NW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. REGARDLESS
OF THE WIND STRENGTH THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR
RAIN MAKER.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah I'm still seeing a slow but steady drift to the NE whilst the other circulation heads westwards inland that was over the Sw Caribbean. Probably going to have another 6-9hrs where it could become a tropical depression, which IMO it is right now but its not upto me is it!

Huh? There is no defined low level circulation established in the S Caribbean at this time.

[Thunder44]

From reading that discussion, it smells like an upgrade may be coming at 5pm PDT (8pm EDT).

[KWT]

Yeah I'm still seeing a slow but steady drift to the NE whilst the other circulation heads westwards inland that was over the Sw Caribbean. Probably going to have another 6-9hrs where it could become a tropical depression, which IMO it is right now but its not upto me is it!

Huh? There is no defined low level circulation established in the S Caribbean at this time.

I think I worder that one wrong, I meant the other area of lower pressure we have in the SW Caribbean, the one that been tracked in the 60 page long thread lol!

Also the wording of that does seem to suggest an upgrade is going to be in the woodwork very soon, it certainly has looked like a tropical depression IMO over the last 3hrs or so.

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BAND OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE AND IT
APPEARS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DEVELOPING.

[StormspinnerD2]

Circulation appears to be well-defined, but convection is shallow and diminishing.

[Cyclenall]

Based on the visible loop, it really looks like a tropical depression right now. I wonder if they are waiting for another pass to find if it meets the quota. I see the NHC already states it's becoming one right now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Invest 90E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 95% (it could be one right now)
Tropical Storm: 70%
Hurricane: 15%
Category 2 Hurricane: 3%
"" 3 "": 0.5%
"" 4 "": 0.1%
"" 5 "": 0.002%

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, this loop and the wind vectors (indicating backing winds at both stations) indicate the LLC is nearly stationary and may be drifting more NNE than NE.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Overall, we clearly have a TD based on increasing structural organization and the closed LLC.

[KWT]

Yeah convection does seem to be getting more shallow as it gets closer and closer to land, however I think it deserves to be upgraded based on that structure, it looks pretty decent from that point of veiw, clearly got a good circulation with it and some banding does seem to be occuring presently with it as well.

[Eyewall]

Based on the visible loop, it really looks like a tropical depression right now. I wonder if they are waiting for another pass to find if it meets the quota. I see the NHC already states it's becoming one right now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance of Invest 90E becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 95% (it could be one right now)
Tropical Storm: 70%
Hurricane: 15%
Category 2 Hurricane: 3%
"" 3 "": 0.5%
"" 4 "": 0.1%
"" 5 "": 0.002%

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

haha you must be bored.. are you sure its 0.002%, not 0.003% chance of a cat 5? tough one

[tolakram]

That sure looks like a TD to me. Untrained eyes of course.

[StormspinnerD2]

That image is nearly six hours old. The convection has fallen apart greatly since then.

[Cyclenall]

haha you must be bored.. are you sure its 0.002%, not 0.003% chance of a cat 5? tough one

I'm very busy actually. I did fret over that 0.001% difference for a few hours today, it was a tough call!

[Derek Ortt]

new burst of convective activity. This is almost certainly a TD at 11

Dont count on a cross over, this one is almost certain to be hung up in the mountains

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF THE NICOYA
PENINSULA OF COSTA RICA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND IS
NEARING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND
CONTINUES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION CLOSE TO THE
COASTLINES OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Derek Ortt]

This EPAC disturbance/cyclone is allowing me to test a lot of things for the season (including some c-shell scripts I have for getting data/uploading updates to nwhhc). This is one EPAC cyclone that I am not 100% sad to see form (just wish it formed in the open ocean though)

[Category 5]

I think some drier air is getting into it.

If it's going to do anything it has to do it tonight. And I'm leaning toward that it's not.

[senorpepr]

Dont count on a cross over, this one is almost certain to be hung up in the mountains

I had my doubts on a crossover from the get-go, and I'm starting to get more and more confident in that solution.