ATL: IKE Discussion

[jlauderdal]

[quote="jlauderdalROLL TIDE

where and when did you hear this?

j heard it this morning at 7:20 when he is on Sports Radio each day[/quote]

ok, thanks for the clarification, please keep us updated on anything else that comes from him, he must see something even if its a possibility to say gulf coast...time will tell

[KWT]

tolakram, a pretty straight foward WNW motion but looking at the loops I suspect that is about to change in the next 12hrs or so, seems to me that the upper high is building in now.

[HURAKAN]

Absolutely beautiful!

[KWT]

Very impressive indeed Hurakan indeed, the eye has cleared out again over the last few hours very well!

[Jessie]

Sabanic is right --- Dr. Williams is very respected in our area. I've know of him for years, but have never been able to find where to listen to his thoughts. Sabanic, didn't you post yesterday that he's on some morning radio show. Would you post the time and station so that I can listen.

[jlauderdal]

Absolutely beautiful!

a dunkin doughnut with white frosting, ike turner never looked that healthy..so what in the world does NHC do with the track at 11, they already slowed it down but they are going to have to decide do they bring the whole track west with similiar curvature idea or do they run it up the coast further from its 5 am end point or do they flatten the overall track at the end implying less erosion of the western flank...they have options here with model support so lets see what they are thinking this morning, i dont see how they can leave it where its at due to forward speed but they are calling the shots not me

[HURAKAN]

[Sabanic]

Sabanic is right --- Dr. Williams is very respected in our area. I've know of him for years, but have never been able to find where to listen to his thoughts. Sabanic, didn't you post yesterday that he's on some morning radio show. Would you post the time and station so that I can listen.

Jessie you can catch him on 105.5 FM 7:10-7:20 each morning. He comes on in that time frame each morning

[petet]

Do you think it is possible to turn in category 5?

[jlauderdal]

Sabanic is right --- Dr. Williams is very respected in our area. I've know of him for years, but have never been able to find where to listen to his thoughts. Sabanic, didn't you post yesterday that he's on some morning radio show. Would you post the time and station so that I can listen.

Jessie you can catch him on 105.5 FM 7:10-7:20 each morning. He comes on in that time frame each morning

he needs a special afternoon update under these tense conditions

[ConvergenceZone]

well, I think based upon this morning's NHC track, this is looking more and more like this is going to affect some part of the USA, whether it's Florida or somewhere along the east coast..It's looking like a hit....

[meteorologyman]

Ike is very impressive
Is it possible Ike can grow in size? or will it maintain its size

[HURAKAN]

Derek's latest graphic.

Very unnerving. SFL, pray for the weakness.

[canetracker]

Derek's latest graphic.

Very unnerving. SFL, pray for the weakness.

You got my prayers. I am praying for recurve. Ike may be beautiful to look at but I sure don't want to see anyone hit.

[sponger]

South Florida will be in full panic mode long before Tuesday if this pans out. A evac to Key West might not be such a bad idea!

[Sanibel]

a pretty straight foward WNW motion but looking at the loops I suspect that is about to change in the next 12hrs or so, seems to me that the upper high is building in now

It looks like it could be coming in south of trop points now in a shallower curve under the ridge. This could be the unexpected strength catching more of the deep layer ridge and smoothing out the "S" curve. This would be problematic for Florida if GFDL tends correct. It could have the effect of sending the whole recurve scenario further west and more towards Florida. Hard to say because a weakness is a weakness and any system, no matter how strong, will move towards one. So, as still holds true, watch the GFDL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It seems Accuweather post's graphics like this to get attention. IMO, they are losing credibility with the cones flip flopping all over the place. It's entertaining for me but you would think they would be a little more subtle, like the NHC when they change their tracks. At least the TWC posts a cone that is usually different than the NHC and sticks with it until the consensus is certain. Geesh

I think TWC is NHC's path, with different formatting.

The middle part of that path might be close, but the Northern end seems to imply a near Westward movement towards the Carolinas, well, seems wrong to this amateur. I am 80% sure this recurves before the Gulf, and the only question for Florida is does it start to recurve too late to miss Florida. If it hits the Carolinas, it will be coming up from generally the South, and the arrow on that implies a Westward heading towards the Carolinas.


If this does get into the Gulf, that 20% uncertainty, I'd say 75% that it crossed Florida on its way to a second mid 90s Erin styel landfall in the Panhandle.

So, in my completely unofficial opinion, there is only about a 5% chance this passes South of mainland Florida.


I think the main target is North Carolina, with a possible second hit into NY/New England, but I wouldn't dare speculate on whether it is a near miss or a direct hit. And this could go 'Donna'; Florida to Carolinas to NY/New England. Or it could be a scare that never makes a US landfall.


BTW, 3 days ago I said a hit between Lake Charles and A'p'cola, centered near MOB, and that was completely wrong, so my skill has been a little lacking. Just another reason to listen to the pro mets, NHC and local mets, before taking what I say too seriously

[gatorcane]

NHC still not biting at a recurve east of Florida.......

Latest NHC cone unchanged basically.

Derek Ortt's forecast is south of the NHC guidance into the Gulf stream.....and towards SE Florida

sleepless nights ahead it looks like

[gtalum]

The new 11 AM NHC cone is about the same place but with lower intensity forecast at the end.

[Air Force Met]

Anyone see accuweathers forecast path..I know it's accuweather....but kinda scarey!!

hey you could post it for us and save us the trouble of looking

thanks,
j

Its Right at S/CFL as a CAT 4 but that you should have Guessed..LOL

I don't understand your sarcasm. That's not that much different than the NHC forecast. They are calling for a Cat 4 as well....aimed at Fl.