ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AnnularCane]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

I agree, 92L or 93L might be our only chance to have anything in the Atlantic in August(nothing else out there)....then it's on to September.....

What? August isn't even halfway over yet.

[jaxfladude]

off topic... phelps just won lifetime gold medal number 10 in the 200m butterfly.

So that is the prohibiting factor for Invest 92L...the upwelling by phelps

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Storm2k has a sports forum,where the members can talk about any sport.Lets not distract from the theme of this thread 92L.

[Mecklenburg]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

you are right, if these 2 won't develop, then i knew it was too good to be true... we'll just wait and see

[Mecklenburg]

why does it seem the convection is dissipating?

[Derek Ortt]

that storm is already in the decline

a quick collapse of a large area of convection, as we saw this afternoon, is often marks the death of tropical cyclones. That type of collapse usually brings about strong downdrafts, which leads to strong surface divergence, causing the low to open into a wave. That may very well have happened here

[Mecklenburg]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

I agree, 92L or 93L might be our only chance to have anything in the Atlantic in August(nothing else out there)....then it's on to September.....

You haven't been paying much attention to the models have you?

as you know, the models aren't that much accurate either

[tolakram]

.. in response to mecks post ...

Convection will pulse, only time will tell us if this is a pulse (new convection will build in the next hour or so) or a poof.

[carolina_73]

Man...I am afraid this baby is going to start cranking up later this evening. The outflow looks VERY GOOD in all directions now. This could become a fairly good sized system. Going to be some interesting days ahead.

[lonelymike]

Sorry just saw the fat lady enter by the back door and saw Bones warming up the ol saw.

[txwatcher91]

that storm is already in the decline

a quick collapse of a large area of convection, as we saw this afternoon, is often marks the death of tropical cyclones. That type of collapse usually brings about strong downdrafts, which leads to strong surface divergence, causing the low to open into a wave. That may very well have happened here

Not trying to disagree as you may be right, but the real-time satellite IR shows the convection expanding over the storm, right over the supposed MLC, which could cause an LLC to form if it continues to expand and deepen.

[ConvergenceZone]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

I agree, 92L or 93L might be our only chance to have anything in the Atlantic in August(nothing else out there)....then it's on to September.....

What? August isn't even halfway over yet.

True, but I don't even see a hint of anything out there after 93L and the end of August is only a little over 2 weeks away....

[terrapintransit]

why does it seem the convection is dissipating?

This system is in a very hostile environment right now. It is encountering alot of shear at the moment.
Give it a few days and it will be in a more favorable westward flow and it will have a good chance to develope

[blp]

What does this system need to do to get some decent convergence. Seems like that has been the story with systems in that part of the Atlantic this year. It is going to be hard to sustain any deep convection with this setup.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Seeing the BAMS shifting north- it looks like the future
track beyond 3 days is uncertain. Wait and see situation.

[Mecklenburg]

What does this system need to do to get some decent convergence. Seems like that has been the story with systems in that part of the Atlantic this year. It is going to be hard to sustain any deep convection with this setup.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF

yeah, i've noticed that too, i want to really know what is hindering the development of atlantic systems this august... we had about a dozen of good waves already... but they all end up with the same fortune...

[lonelymike]

Hey just wanted to spread to some love to our pro mets on the board here. Everyone here appreciates you guys and gals spending your hard earned time posting analysis for us on the threads and forecast forums. A lot of times some people question you or disagree with what you say but I for one appreciate the time and effort you take to educate and enlighten us. Thank you from one and all I'm sure.

[canetracker]

why does it seem the convection is dissipating?

Perhaps even though it has mid level moisture
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=
it has no lower level convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
and the shear is not favorable at this time.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

Besides model guidance does not prog this to develop til NE of Puerto Rico per the GFDL and EURO models

[cheezyWXguy]

What does this system need to do to get some decent convergence. Seems like that has been the story with systems in that part of the Atlantic this year. It is going to be hard to sustain any deep convection with this setup.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8conv.GIF

I get the feeling that once we get the dmax to kick in, this will start to get going because the ull giving the harsh conditions is moving away. Since its moving away and conditions become more favorable, existing convection may last longer, perhaps long enough to develop a llc. From then on convergence would increase, and tc can get going. Unfortunately, I dont see that for at least another 24-48 hours.