ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[bevgo]

LOL just making an observation from what I saw on the water vapor loop when I added the tropical forcast points. I would NEVER argue with the experts. I just thought it was funny. It is nothing that I am personally seeing. I would hate for that scenario to happen though--what a mess that would be. I am sure you are correst and that she is moving NW--TG

[tolakram]

That's not Fay, it's an ULL that destroyed Fay and sent the remains north.

[Steve]

>>That's not Fay, it's an ULL that destroyed Fay and sent the remains north.

IMHO, it's a combination of an upper swirl with low-level moisture and energy. You can't view it on the WV loop for what it is. The piece of trough is interacting and being asorbed/absobing into Fay's low level center. The mid center - guessing by the couple of bands on radar is somewhere up near Birmingham. The Low center is somewhere in southern Mississippi. Energy from fay is wraping around that, feeding into the surge/upper low which is feeding into/on the circulation. As discussed yesterday, every major global showed except the GFDL showed the center going inland in Florida, jumping the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama and arcing back somewhere into south or central Louisiana.

This should show it better that wv:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

This is further demonstrated by the last forecast track:



Steve

[Frank P]

Using the MADIS link it still hints of a broad surface low at the following location, pressures noted around 1002 mb



Here's a link to MADIS surface wind data, compliments of wxman57

http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mesonet/

[tolakram]

I noticed the NHC dropped Fay without even a warning in the discussion. I don't remember seeing that before.

The regional radar loop shows how far north the precip has made it.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixed ... &type=loop

[Steve]

Surface plots don't lie - nice work Frank. Getting some of the wraparound nosing into bayou country. It's cloudy and windy and feels almost cool down this way. Like Sean said, it was breezy in the city last night (talked with one of my kids, and you could hear the wind).

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Just too my northwest...

[sunny]

We are having gusts of 24mph so far here. Waiting for the rain to arrive.

[Steve]

They turned it over to the HPC who issued the warning which was carried on the TPC site with the 4am bulletin:

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA.

etc.

[cycloneye]

Steve,we are continuing to post the HPC advisories at the thread for those.

[Steve]

Also, still looks pretty good for a disolved system. Everybody knows that half the people here would be screaming "What hasn't anyone updated this yet?!?!?! What are they doing?!" if they saw this at the beginning of a threat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[O Town]

I noticed the NHC dropped Fay without even a warning in the discussion. I don't remember seeing that before.

The regional radar loop shows how far north the precip has made it.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixed ... &type=loop

000
WTNT31 KNHC 240256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[tolakram]

I noticed the NHC dropped Fay without even a warning in the discussion. I don't remember seeing that before.

The regional radar loop shows how far north the precip has made it.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/mixed ... &type=loop

000
WTNT31 KNHC 240256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

I said:
without even a warning in the discussion.

Generally they track it until it's a remnant low unless my memory is horribly wrong.

[canetracker]

Also, still looks pretty good for a disolved system. Everybody knows that half the people here would be screaming "What hasn't anyone updated this yet?!?!?! What are they doing?!" if they saw this at the beginning of a threat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

The last image on the visible loop, at 1315 UTC, is really nice. She does look good for a disolved system.

[Frank P]

Also, still looks pretty good for a disolved system. Everybody knows that half the people here would be screaming "What hasn't anyone updated this yet?!?!?! What are they doing?!" if they saw this at the beginning of a threat.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Yeah Steve, good point, for a remnant its interesting to look at to say the least... we just had a couple of gusts in Biloxi that has rearranged some of the porch furniture.. nothing serious though.. probably in the 25-30 mph range... all the furniture is secured with cables to keep it in check from just this type of wind but still the winds can rearrange it if it blows hard enough, usually thats in the 25+ mph range.. pretty ugly day along the MS coast attm

[Frank P]

Just noticed on the IR loops some developing convection out in the GOM associated with TD Kay...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[canetracker]

Just noticed on the IR loops some developing convection out in the GOM associated with TD Kay...



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

I noticed that too. Maybe it has something to do with that low being absorbed into Fay's convection? In any event looks to be a rainy windy day here in SELA.

[rockyman]

SPC thinks part of the central Gulf Coast could have tornadoes later today:

NTRL GULF CST...
VWP AND RAOB DATA SHOW THAT DEEP WIND FIELD WITH FAY HAS WEAKENED
OVERNIGHT...AND WINDS OVER AL/MS AND LA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TODAY. A MID LVL DRY SLOT HAS OVERSPREAD PARTS OF AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE AS SYSTEM INTERACTED WITH MID LATITUDE IMPULSE THAT
CROSSED AR/LA. ASSOCIATED EROSION OF DEEP CLOUD FIELD WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING IN SE QUADRANT OF REMNANT LOW LVL
CIRCULATION THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE IN RECENT DAYS. WHILE THIS MAY
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS/CLUSTERS OF DIURNALLY- ENHANCED
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS...WARM 700-500 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD
LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH.

EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT PATTERN SUGGEST THAT SOME MID LVL COLD
ADVECTION COULD OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL GULF CST THIS EVE AND TONIGHT
AS PART OF FORMER AR/LA IMPULSE THAT IS NOW OVER THE NW/N CNTRL GULF
ROTATES NEWD. THIS FEATURE APPEARS...IN PART...TO BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR TSTMS NOW OVER THE GULF S OF LA...AND COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR EVE/OVERNIGHT STORMS IN SRN MS/SRN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE. MODERATE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THAT REGION AT
THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT WILL BE REDUCED RELATIVE TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN INVOF FAY IN
RECENT DAYS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION COULD REQUIRE
UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SVR RISK LATER TODAY IF IT BECOMES APPARENT
THAT SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORMS WILL INDEED OCCUR THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[stormy1970al]

Over in South Alabama we have brief periods of sunshine, then light rain. Even a rainbow this morning! My kids spotted the rainbow and woke me up. The wind is blowing but not too harsh. The mets over here say that we will get some rain but not like it was forecasted.

[attallaman]

It's 9:45 a.m. here in Biloxi, where is the center of what was once TS Fay now located? Kind of breezy here but not much rain.

[Steve]

>>It's 9:45 a.m. here in Biloxi, where is the center of what was once TS Fay now located? Kind of breezy here but not much rain.

Go back up to Frank P's post. It may be a hair west of his circle now, but that's where the low level circulation is. Maybe somewhere in the corridor between Meridian and Hattiesburg IMHO.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php