ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Steve]

Every one of the 12z globals available on the Experimental Tropical Genesis sites at PSU & FSU did about the same thing on their 12z runs. They all moved the storm inland to florida in a semi-circling arc down to SE LA (jumping over the AL/MS coasts). Not sure if that ends up verifying but there was certainly a concensus in the near term among them all except the GFDL which took a more direct, westerly approach. If The tailing piece of the trough heading by NE of Fay continues on out, Fay should be arc'd back westward by the high which is behind it. But ultimately, who knows what's going to verify?

Steve

[wxman57]

I wouldn't put the nail in the coffin of any tropical system until it's actually gone.
I've seen too many crazy things happen in my many years of tracking these systems.
My point is to think N.O. or any other location has missed the heavy rainfalls is
a bit premature to say the least. IMHO

That's forecasting, Stormcenter. We have to make a commitment to a forecast for our clients. We tell them what's most likely (little rain or wind in New Orleans), that's our forecast. We also go through alternate possibilities. But we have to commit to a forecast out to 7 days in advance sometimes, even if we're not 100% sure. As of now, I'm about 90-95% sure New Orleans will get very little rain and certainly no TS sustained wind.

[rockyman]

Thanks for the report, baygirl! Dauphin Island is rocking right now...winds in the 30-40 mph range...still not a drop of rain

[wxman57]

Fay seems to be moving too fast for the NHC to keep up with it. Their 21Z position (a forecast made at 18Z) had it at 30.6N/86.3W by 21Z, but there's a surface report 15 miles NW of that location with a SW wind and a 998.9 mb pressure. The center is closer to 30.9N/86.5W now. Appears to be moving WNW based on surface reports.

Latest surface analysis indicates Fay is likely now a TD with 25-35 mph winds. Squalls are diminishing east of the center out over the water, and buoy reports are in the 25 kt range now at the most.

[Derek Ortt]

So Derek what do you think? Is this puppy going to push off to the West or has it stalled and going to drift North? Yesterday the weather service was calling for super high totals of rain here on the Alabama Gulf coast but now I'm not so sure.
SD.

rain totals if the current trends continue may nto quite be so high

however, all this has to do is get west of you. It can be north of you and you will still get slammed

[cpdaman]

where's bones? or is he buying an umbrella

[wxman57]

where's bones? or is he buying an umbrella

He doesn't like the rain. Will wait for NHC to hand Fay off to the HPC before coming out.

[Frank P]

Tide is awfully low on the beach in Biloxi.. here's a pix off my front porch..

I just received an email from WLOX TV-13 informing me that the TS warning has been dropped for the MS Gulf Coast because TS Fay is moving inland into FL. I just checked the radar out of Mobile which shows lots of rain in central MS but very little here along the coast. Are we still forecasted to receive lots of rain here in Biloxi or is the amount of rain originally forecasted for Biloxi and surrounding areas now been lowered since TS Fay is now moving inland into FL?

attallaman, based on how everything is playing out at the moment I just don't expect all that much on the MS gulf coast... my opinion FWIW... but ya never really know until they fully dissipate or leave the area... I have not done any preps and probaby won't... porch furniture will remain as is... but will still monitor and take necessary action if warranted. No amount of rain is an issue for my house as everything drains into the GOM.. add the fact that its 10 feet off the ground as well..

[Sihara]

Didnt see the tornado threat coming! I did see some mare's tails earlier. hmmmmm

NOAA radio said this afternoon that tornados were possible. Not surprising I guess, given how black the sky looked and the how strong some of the storms seemed. Did you see the photo of the tornado in Polk County?

(I think I got the quote thing right this time)

[wxman57]

Increasing westerly wind shear seems to be ripping Fay apart this afternoon. You can see it's MLC way off to the ENE over eastern Alabama. Lots of dry air flowing in. I think Fay's had it now. Definitely no longer a TS. NHC will likely downgrade it on the intermediate advisory.

[stormy1970al]

We took the kids for a drive on the Mobile Bay Causeway earlier this afternoon. What can I say, the frustrated storm chaser in me had to play a little! I was going to take pictures, but someone (that would be me!) didn't charge the digital camera battery. So here's the written report, instead: The bay north of the causeway was quite rough: there were whitecaps. The bay south of the causeway was pretty smooth, but the water has been blown south. There are mudflats along that side of the causeway. The wind was gusting pretty good-- it was moving my Honda SUV around a bit. I'm not so good at estimating wind speeds. However, when we got home I checked The Weather Channel local weather. It stated there were gusts to 30 mph in downtown Mobile. We drove past Carnival's Fantasy and saw the cruisers boarding (the kids love cruise ships-- okay, so does Mom!). I couldn't help but wonder if they were going to have a bit of a rough ride out tonight and tomorrow. I spent a little time this afternoon sitting on out patio reading and enjoying (yes-enjoying) the winds. Every so often we get a really good gust-- maybe in the 25-30 range?? We have had passing showers, too.
(Oh--- DH is going to have to endure the NOT cancelled karaoke party tonight and then, possibly, heavy rain and other bad weather tomorrow. Not a happy dude!)

Hey you should had just crossed the causeway and came over to the Eastern Shore today. I was in Spanish Fort and Daphne for a good bit today before heading South of Fairhope.

[Valkhorn]

I live up in Knoxville and it's actually a beautiful day out. However I went to the Smokies this morning and all I can say was that it was pretty brutal weather for late August:



I would guess the wind was about 35 sustained with gusts to 50 or 55. Of course this was at 6,650 ft. at Clingman's Dome

The temperature was in the upper 40s.

Normally in the summer it's not that bad up there, but since the winds were out of the East I would guess it had something to do with Fay.

[Sihara]

We just got 3 inches in about an hour and a half. Its finally let up for now it looks like here in Orlando.

Wow - 3"! I remember being in Orlando years ago, staying near Semoran Blvd. and the rainfall rate was about like that. It seemed that street flooding happened fairly quickly, I recall it being a heckuva mess.


Wxman57, thanks for the update. But even if she's downgraded this evening, that's a pretty long run f or a tropical storm, isn't it - 4 FL landfalls, gotta be a record!

[MGC]

Yep, that dry air to Fay's west has done a number on her. A one-two punch, dry air and land have finally doomed Fay. Of course Fay's wet side will continue to produce prolific rains so everybody east of Fay's center should be carefull when you are out and about......MGC

[SoupBone]

I'm guessing this thread will die before it reaches 650. Ah well good ridden Fay...I didn't need the rain anyway.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, one thing verified that I predicted a few days ago...that the system would pull dry air down into New Orleans and give us a chance at a nice, dry weekend day. We had that today! And it was a little breezy. Of course, I was ridiculed and mocked endlessly, but, after 5 years on this board, you learn it comes with the territory.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't think it was the dry air I think it was, like wxman57 said, the shear pushing away the convection.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I don't think it was the dry air I think it was, like wxman57 said, the shear pushing away the convection.

LOL....

[Dean4Storms]

Here just east of Destin, I cannot find any reporting stations with winds sustained above 30mph to our east now, she has weakened. The center went over us this afternoon, the winds died and it drizzled. We are now having the winds pick up from the SW 15-25mph.

I think Fay is no longer a TS. She snuffed herself out by taking the land route and the shear got her as well.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Here just east of Destin, I cannot find any reporting stations with winds sustained above 30mph to our east now, she has weakened. The center went over us this afternoon, the winds died and it drizzled. We are now having the winds pick up from the SW 15-25mph.

I think Fay is no longer a TS.

It seems to be a broad low....