ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[vbhoutex]

94L better become a TD, or that's 62 pgs gone down the drain.

Since when did this obsession with pages rise?

I don't have an obsession with pgs. It's just interesting to me how an invest can have so many pgs and now the chances of it forming are decreasing.

Perhaps you don't, but as an admin of this site I am now asking staff to begin deleting any references to how many pages are written about any invest, ts, etc. I have already made one post on this in this thread which you obviously did not read. This obsession with how many pages there are about a certain tropical system is ridiculous and of no use to information or discussion about these systems. EVERYONE IS NOW WARNED CONCERNING THIS. We will begin deleting immediately any further references to number of pages in about a system, no matter the type of system it is.

[NDG]

Never call dead a system that still has an nice circulation close to the ITCZ, 94L is just showing us that. We will see if tonight is the night for convection to come back or not. If it stays in the low latitude that it is right now, it should stay below the higher windshear to the north.

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing signs of improved structure in the weak circulation. The thin surface band on the northwest is much more curved instead of flat like this am. This is a sign of improvement. Right now the convection is balled in the middle with slightly improving circulation. It never had this in synch before so it could be a sign of potential. It's fairly simple, it will either flare in this configuration or not. While improving slightly there's nothing to stop it from being destroyed by stronger hostile conditions. A sharp eye will see a better cyclonic "S" form today in the weak bands with a slightly stronger southern inflow.

[gatorcane]

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The only way this will develop IMO is if recon can find proof a closed LLC, if it does tomorrow then they will upgrade it on the spot if Dvorak numbers still support it as they do currently. Other then that I just don't see the conditions being favorable enough.

Conditions will not be unfavorable in fact marginal is a better word. 94L looks like it will stay in an area that could support tropical storm formation but not rapid intensification.

I still think a depression looks likely from 94L.

I'm seeing signs of improved structure in the weak circulation. The thin surface band on the northwest is much more curved instead of flat like this am. This is a sign of improvement. Right now the convection is balled in the middle with slightly improving circulation. It never had this in synch before so it could be a sign of potential. It's fairly simple, it will either flare in this configuration or not. While improving slightly there's nothing to stop it from being destroyed by stronger hostile conditions. A sharp eye will see a better cyclonic "S" form today in the weak bands with a slightly stronger southern inflow.

Sanibel I'm glad somebody is agreeing with my observations from earlier. I see steady organization of 94L for the reasons you mention above.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[gatorcane]

Nice "banding-like" features visible now as inflow channels are starting to develop:

There is a SW inflow channel and a NE channel, albeit weaker, that has recently formed.

[KWT]

It is starting to look a little better now I do have to admit, its the first time I've seen the center actually close to the larger mass of convection and whilst it still needs a little more to get upgraded its closer then it has been at any time in the last 36hrs.

shear is over the system, marginal probably is a better word for it right now I think though SHIPS has shear at 15-30kts from 24hrs onwards.
In this case the further south this feature can remain the weaker the shear will likely be.

I'm getting a little more interested in this again, its not quite as dead as was thought earlier.

[Extremeweatherguy]

94L still looks pretty decent to me this afternoon and I am not ready to write it off completely just yet. There still appears to be good rotation present on the visible loop and convection is definitely deeper than it was yesterday too. I wouldn't rule out this system trying to get its act together a little bit more over the next couple of days.

lol. I just realized that KWT and I posted basically the same thing at nearly the same time.

[Ivanhater]

The thing is..if this thing was never discussed before and we saw it for the first time today, we would see the spin and convection and be all over this, but because of all the build up some want to write it off...If I looked at this for the first time today, I would be highly interested...

[Sanibel]

It is about to cross over a higher SST line to 28*C.


It will be interesting to see what it does tonight. The NE quadrant looks like it is filling in and could convect.

[gatorcane]

It is about to cross over a higher SST line to 28*C.


It will be interesting to see what it does tonight. The NE quadrant looks like it is filling in and could convect.

Yes you got it. Just about ready to bring in the SST argument. Look how the SST anomalies are higher where 94L is about to enter.

94L was previously in an area of lower SST anomalies which could be why we didn't see the convection develop yesterday and why we are seeing a marked increase in convection recently.

[Jason_B]

Pretty persistent convection going on today, something we definitely were missing yesterday. Still not really organized but it's not wanting to die off either, interesting to see what it does as it heads on to the west.

[Brent]

It does look a bit better although I want to see if it continues to improve tonight before I get on the development train again.

[NDG]

There is some nice moisture surge heading into 94L, lets see if it helps it get some more convection going near its cyclonic center.

[Blown Away]

Gatorcane, I've been holding my ground on 94L along w/ you. For an invest looks pretty good and as you pointed out the rotation has improved since this morning and now there is convection around the LLC.

[gatorcane]

and one other thing to note about the structure of 94L...it is definitely becoming less "elongated" today which would point out development possibilities.

But as I expect pro mets to point out, the window of opportunity for 94L to develop is closing because of the shear out to the west in the Eastern Caribbean induced by thermal low influence from South America. Lets see if it can develop into a depression before then though.

[KWT]

The higher SST's may well be helping out though if it gets too far north its going to run into some pretty bad shear, worse then what is already on it I reckon.

Agreed Jason_B, its not really organising per say but the fact the center is now under convection at least makes it more possile that something could come of it compared with say 24hrs ago. Also I also see that little feeder band that seems to be helping withthe inflow on the eastern convection.

[RL3AO]

Whats this? A little convergence.

[NDG]

Bring out the champagne, there's finally some convergence on the map!!

[gatorcane]

How about this for 850MB vorticity? Evidence is starting to finally come in on 94L.