ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[SouthFLTropics]

It has the appearance of a ghost hurricane...Currently has the look but nothing but vapor. Now the question is this...Does it stay as a Casper the Friendly Ghost , or does it turn into more like Freddy Krueger

:thinking:

SouthFLTropics

[HURAKAN]

Let tell you something, the MLC is impressive and if strong convection can develop over it, a LLC may for quickly.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

The faster, the better you will see the MLC.

[canegrl04]

This reminds me of 94L before it became hurricane Dolly.Just becuz it looks ragged right now doesn't mean it can't become a formidable force down the road

[Scorpion]

The convection is bad but the structure looks decent.

[KWT]

Of course it has got a good structure, at least at the mid levels but the key is will we get a good convective burst because if it doesn't then the circulation will slowly weaken even at mid-level but we shall see, I suspect eventually convection will fire up again.

[Blown Away]

Nice clear rotation and convection building directly on top of the circulation (17.2N/53W). Structure wise 92L looks better than it has since it was classified. Finally, it looks like a tropical system. I'm not going to predict anything, to me it looks good rate now and the structure is now allowing the convection to build near the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[SouthFLTropics]

This reminds me of 94L before it became hurricane Dolly.Just becuz it looks ragged right now doesn't mean it can't become a formidable force down the road

Agreed canegrl04...This is very concerning in my part of the world. I'm hoping it stays a ghost but the synoptic setup is very bothersome for me. Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma are fresh in my mind. I'm not really looking forward to that mess again. But, if it comes, at least I'm prepared. I guess I better relax now because there could be some long hours in the weeks ahead. My company manages hurricane restoration and recovery work for FDOT...After a storm it means 18+ hour days...

[HURAKAN]

It seems the Leeward Islands are in the clear if the MLC becomes the dominant feature as it looks like at the moment.

[cycloneye]

It seems the Leeward Islands are in the clear if the MLC becomes the dominant feature as it looks like at the moment.

I agree about that.Only some rain if the track is like it seems to take around 20n north of Puerto Rico.

[Derek Ortt]

shouldn't the thread reflect the change in the graphical TWO from red to orange? (or am I too late?)

[RL3AO]

Back down to orange.

[Derek Ortt]

development chances are falling quickly

if this does not generate convection overnight, it'll be next invest please in the morning

[Jam151]

Ya b/c convection never fizzles in the early evening and no such models like the GFDL are suggesting a Cat 4 in 5 days... . I think the NHC 48 hour TWO is spot on.

[HURAKAN]

[Stratosphere747]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 52W S OF 21N
OR ABOUT 500 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE LOW FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
48W-54W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OVER BARBADOS LATE TONIGHT.

[Aquawind]

Well the convection continues to refire over the MLC. Tiny as it is...92L LIVES!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

Right now most of the convection in the Atlantic is weak.

[Jason_B]

I don't know about a cat 3/4 storm, but I do have a feeling something will come of this later down the road. I don't really have anything to back that up, it's just when I see this system I think back to when everybody wrote off 94L and we all know what became of that. So just give it time, we all know how quick things change out there.

[deltadog03]

The SW part of the system is dying...That means the "center" or MLC should start getting everything into it.

[Vortex]

00:15 utc imagery depicts very deep convection firing right over the mlc!