ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Looks messy to me, there is not much convection around where the center appears to be as of the moment but two lumps of convection either side, doesn't look like a developing tropical cyclone to me right now.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 151738
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM IS DECREASING SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Jason_B]

94L better become a TD, or that's 62 pgs gone down the drain.

Not really, I learn a lot just watching people discuss about it...and for us amateurs our knowledge will be greater for the next storm. JMO.

[HURAKAN]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

A 1012 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N48W ALONG
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO SPIN WESTWARD TOWARD THE
CARIBBEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...INCREASING E WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W WED INTO
THU.

[HURAKAN]

Still Code Orange. After reading the TWO I thought it was going down to Code Yellow but not the case.

[KWT]

Well the latest TWO pretty much confirms what we all think, development is looking increasingly unlikely now. I still don't see the point in sending recon in there to be honest but they may do just in case.

[Stratosphere747]

Well the latest TWO pretty much confirms what we all think, development is looking increasingly unlikely now. I still don't see the point in sending recon in there to be honest but they may do just in case.

Recon is only scheduled for tomorrow. It can easily be canceled.

[KWT]

Yeah I personally think they should cancel the mission but I think it makes sense to have recon look at it at least for now just in case it does decide to do anything unexpected in the next 12hrs. If it continues to look like it does now in 12hrs then I'd cancel the mission TBH.

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM Discussion:

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N MOVING
ROUGHLY WNW NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL
DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC ROTATION...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY WEST OF THE AXIS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 47W-53W. THIS SYSTEM HAS GENERALLY BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM IS DECREASING.

[fci]

It doesn't surprise if they were on their way. I see 94L is continuing to gradually organize today...considering the relatively high likelyhood of it becoming a depression and its proximity to the islands it makes sense.

Best 94L has looked in 24 hours:

Good thing that these systems are not nearly as tenacious as you are in predicting that they will develop!!

Time to move on to the next one, Chris.

Can this still develop? Yes, of course
But so can any area of convection in the tropics between about June and November...

Still plenty of invests and systems to come, so I am moving on to whatever is tossed at us next and disregarding Invest 94L.
When Jim proclaims it dead...................................its dead.....................

[KWT]

Its not totaly dead yet there is still some convection firing fairly close to the circulation, though I do think development is now looking highly highly unlikely.

Still even if this doesn't develop should still give some interesting weather to the windward islands it seems.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Speaking of recon. Wouldn't they have had to move their plane today in order to reach 94L? I wonder if they did....

Looks like they might be on their way right now...

hmmmm

If they cancel recon for tomorrow do you think they may hang out wherever they are going for a couple of days? "Just in case". (Thinking of the wave behind 94L)

I think it'd be nice for people who have to live in Mississippi to have a chance to sip piña coladas and take walks in the rain...on a tropical beach somewhere in the USVI.

[KWT]

Well if they are flying down there they probably will end up taking a look at invest 94L as long as it totally doesn't decay into nothingness by that point.

[pojo]

Speaking of recon. Wouldn't they have had to move their plane today in order to reach 94L? I wonder if they did....

yes and they did... you should be able to find the reports on the NHC website... I don't know if they dropped, but the HDOBs & RECCO should be up.

[Stratosphere747]

yes and they did... you should be able to find the reports on the NHC website... I don't know if they dropped, but the HDOBs & RECCO should be up.

Hey Pojo,

What is the 'rest' time required for the flight crew between missions?

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

15/1745 UTC 12.1N 50.1W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

It seems Dvorak got stuck in 2.0!!!

[Gustywind]

The numbers have not been lowered... waouw and racing west tenacious system does not want to die

[pojo]

yes and they did... you should be able to find the reports on the NHC website... I don't know if they dropped, but the HDOBs & RECCO should be up.

Hey Pojo,

What is the 'rest' time required for the flight crew between missions?

ALL military aircrews have a minimum of 12 hours crew rest inbetween flights regardless of position & rank. If interrupted and in crew rest, clock starts all over again.

[Gustywind]

It's NOT dead JIM