ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[cpdaman]

mr ortt says North shear will be a factor limiting convection tonite, and that tommorrow this should lessen so be patient as usual

[cheezyWXguy]

looks good then 15 minutes later looks a mess

No. I dont understand what it is with you people. You take every satellite image as its own trend. CHILL OUT! Convection forms and dies. This one was imminent to die anyway. This isnt the burst that was going to strengthen it anyway. It may help, but it needs a new one directly over the center. (and no, this one wasnt over the center ever, it has been exposed this entire time) But what current trends to indicate is the shear is now relaxing within the next few hours the dry air will eventually mix out, allowing this to strengthen once again.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks to be moving almost due to south to this untrained eye.

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing a nice increase in convection around the center and the first time i have seen this today.
as i mentioned earlier this trend will continue as it begins to pull in and develope new convection.. now that the center has wrapped the convection to its se..

[cheezyWXguy]

I really don't see what looks so bad about it. Yes it looks a little worst on IR but it looks just fine if not improving on visible: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

Thats a great loop. In fact, I believe it shows that the northern side of the circulation is getting more moist, while a new burst is developing in the middle of the old large burst to the south. This suggests to me that the big burst of convection may be starting to initiate a chain reaction of developing convection.

[Bailey1777]

Radar shows due West with a tight little circulation.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks to be moving almost due to south to this untrained eye.

Are you basing that movement on Satellite or radar?

[njweather]

yep, give it time, folks.

From Orrt's analysis earlier today:

I do not expect much intensification overnight due to 350-300mb northerly winds blowing through the cyclone. It would not be a surprise to see all of the convection disappear for a brief period of time in response. However, these shearing winds should relax tomorrow, allowing for intensification. SHIPS and GFDL bring Edouard to hurricane intensity before landfall and this forecast does the same.

Keep in mind, he also forecasts a cat. 1 hurricane, so Ed isn't at all behind schedule...

[fasterdisaster]

Anyone have a link to radar?

[weatherguru18]

Keep in mind it's just a forecast. It is probable, IMO, that this could be stronger than a Cat. 1. Likely? No...but it is certainly possible.

[fasterdisaster]

Keep in mind it's just a forecast. It is probable, IMO, that this could be stronger than a Cat. 1. Likely? No...but it is certainly possible.

Given you later said it wasn't likely I'm taking it you meant to type 'possible'?

[Stormcenter]

Looks to be moving almost due to south to this untrained eye.

Are you serious? It's a wobbling around if anything as it moves pretty much westward.



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[cheezyWXguy]

I want to add to my previous post that on that loop, I now see the beginnings of a new burst of convection forming on the NORTHWEST side of the circulation, with shallow convection beginning to pop all around the center, I believe.

[Aric Dunn]

I want to add to my previous post that on that loop, I now see the beginnings of a new burst of convection forming on the NORTHWEST side of the circulation, with shallow convection beginning to pop all around the center, I believe.

hhhhmmmmmmm..........

[Fego]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[fasterdisaster]

Looks to be moving almost due to south to this untrained eye.

Are you serious? It's a wobbling around if anything as it moves pretty much westward.



http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

I didn't have a link to radar and I was looking at visible, which can often be deceiving for the direction of tropical storms. Apologies, you are correct it's moving west.

[Aric Dunn]

center is still exposed but that is about to end..

as we should see a burst over the center shortly..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html

and its heading WEST for those who asked

very well defined center by the way as well
\

[cheezyWXguy]

center is still exposed but that is about to end..

as we should see a burst over the center shortly..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-ir2.html

and its heading WEST for those who asked

very well defined center by the way as well
\

I agree with you that it is certainly not moving due south, however, I do see a sw motion in the last few frames in both radar and satellite.

[TTheriot1975]

Ok...any news from recon?

[Bailey1777]

Looks to be wobbling a little. Nice radar shots. Anyone notice that it seems to be picking up speed.