ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

anyone think this could impact gustav's track

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 95, 2008082600, , BEST, 0, 183N, 530W, 25, 1011, DB, 34,

[Sihara]

Interesting that they now have 95L much more south than when they had its last plot at 21n now at 18n.

I noticed that when I got home from work. What could be the reason for the new position?

[srainhoutx]

The forgotten Invest...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[CrazyC83]

Yeah, it seems this is going fishing with the blocking ridge. Looks pretty good though.

[KWT]

Convection overnight has decreased with 95L. Its been strange as its flared up at Dmin yet seems to weaken during the dmax!

There are signs that its building convection back however and quite a few models do try and develop 95l.

[KWT]

Heading NW I see but not at any great pace. SHIPS do like this and bring it upto hurricane strength, we shall see...

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 260823
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
420 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...


SUN-TUE...MID LEVEL HGHTS FALL ABOUT 20M AS THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE
N-NW SAGS SWD OVER THE STATE. MEANWHILE...RIDGING DEVELOPS ALONG
AND OFFSHORE THE NERN SEABOARD...WHICH EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE
SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH. IF THIS PATTERN COMES TO FRUITION...WE COULD
SEE THE FIRST PERIOD OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN QUITE A
LONG TIME...PERHAPS THE ENTIRE SUMMER. THIS WOULD PUT ECFL INTO A
LATE-NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHRA REGIME...WITH LIMITED CHC FOR TS THRU
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. 00Z ECM OFF ON IT`S OWN BRINGING A TC WWD INTO
THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE EAST COAST OF FL EARLY NEXT WEEK. ITS TRACK
SEEMS VERY DOUBTFUL...THINK ANY SYSTEM THAT SPINS UP WOULD BE MUCH
MORE LKLY TO BE FARTHER NE IN THE OPEN ATLC AS SHOWN BY THE GFS.


SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[HURAKAN]

Question, is 95L considered the one below 20N or the entire disturbance? There is a lot of convection but up near 25N and 62W.

AL, 95, 2008082606, , BEST, 0, 191N, 539W, 25, 1011,

They have the "center" way down any convection.

[ericinmia]

Question, is 95L considered the one below 20N or the entire disturbance? There is a lot of convection but up near 25N and 62W.

AL, 95, 2008082606, , BEST, 0, 191N, 539W, 25, 1011,

They have the "center" way down any convection.

They 'moved' the designation for 95l to the blob to the southeast of that main ball of convection. JB is ranting about their being really three systems all close together here, and the possible impacts of them on eachother.

[HURAKAN]

The strong convection could also be driven by windshear.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT-AU-
PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS
ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN ALABAMA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks pretty good, including circulation-wise.

[cycloneye]

The Best Track at 12:00 UTC for 95L.

AL, 95, 2008082612, , BEST, 0, 203N, 560W, 25, 1011, DB,

[Blown Away]

Looks like the circulation is moving SW? I don't know why but the conditions in the MDR seem to be hostile most of the time?

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the circulation is moving SW? I don't know why but the conditions in the MDR seem to be hostile most of the time?

[storm4u]

not a good run for carolinas to new england

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... NA240.html

[HURAKAN]

195
ABNT20 KNHC 261757
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED JUST INLAND ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FAY...LOCATED NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF BERMUDA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[KWT]

Well looks like its only forecast to move slowly, some models still keen to strengthen this system into a bit of a beast even though recurve is looking highly likely.

[storms in NC]

yeah this is pertty much being Ignore.

I don't see any hope for it unless that ull moves out of the way.