ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[terrapintransit]

[/quote]


Wow....Looks like this could be a giant

[cheezyWXguy]

There is definitely convergence in that system. Not only is new convection forming, but all existing convection is spiraling into the center. An obvious indication an organizing and developing system.

[KWT]

Yeah this is looking real good now, though of course can be wrong I think given surface reports thus far its well on its way at least.

CZ, there are a surprising number of us about though most probably just lurk, but if you think about it any tropical systems that recurve will get into the jet and play a huge role on our weather, plus every now and then we do get direct remains which are cool.

Finally note Fay's huge outflow!

[fasterdisaster]

Is this the wave the LR models said would hit the Bahamas and then go up the east coast?

[HURAKAN]

Popping.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is little question that this is close to depresion strength, but the nhc will wait 24 hours to see if it can hold together. A west wind with this kind of banding is something very interesting,.

This could be "one" of the big ones!

[LAwxrgal]

Oh boy... here we go again. Looks like a possible Gustav in the making.

Somehow the name Gustav gives me the heebie jeebies...

[Just Joshing You]

Just from looking at it, it appears like.. one of 'those' storms that would go E.I or R.I. Just look at it.. speechless.

What are pro-mets saying about this?

[Ivanhater]

I would advise not to jump the gun on this one..we have had a few look this good only to fizzle over night or the next day..just keep an eye on it, but Im not ready to jump on the development train yet

[Derek Ortt]

Most models have this being sheared after about 48 hours.

This will probably go ahead and develop into a TS, but then be a sheared TS for a long time

[KWT]

Thats of course Derek if the models are right, hardly covered themselves with glory with Fay in reagrds to the shear forecasts.

Still from the sounds of things you expect something maybe like Irene 05 then at least in terms of strength?

[deltadog03]

Nasty tutt coming in just north of this...We will have too see how they interact.

[jaxfladude]

Come on shear!!!

[Gustywind]

Wow....Looks like this could be a giant [/quote]
Maybe i'm amazed by the size of the huge enveloppe of moisture, and thunderstorms are right now poping nicely...

[cycloneye]

Nasty tutt coming in just north of this...We will have too see how they interact.

That upper low to the north is moving in tandem with 94L.As you said,it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Patrick99]

Right now it looks great in all quadrants. I don't know that we've seen a wave look this good, this year.

[KWT]

Yeah the SHIPS have this TUTT giving it some decent shear as do the other models ran off GFS BUT it done a horrid job on the ULL near Fay at far far shorter notice...

[perk]

I would advise not to jump the gun on this one..we have had a few look this good only to fizzle over night or the next day..just keep an eye on it, but Im not ready to jump on the development train yet

I'm agree Ivanhater looking back at Dolly,Edouard, & Fay they all fooled us over and over again developement wise. All three had a favorable environment they never fully took advantage of. I'm also gonna take a wait and see attitude on 94L.

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 105 MILES SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME