ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[senorpepr]

I just added a new product that merges surface plots, pressure, streamlines, and base reflectivity (0.5°) into one chart, zoomed down to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

At this time, it shows the low off the coast from the border of Georgia and Florida quite well.

[senorpepr]

Make sure and check out the weather charts thread: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101942

I just added a chart that will merge surface plots, pressure, streamlines, and base reflectivity (0.5°) for Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. It's doing a nice job with this invest.

[HURAKAN]

18/0545 UTC 30.8N 80.9W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

LLC clearly right off the coast on satellite.

[KWT]

Well the IR overnight certainly does give that idea Ed but I want to wait till we get some vis.imagery of this system to get a better idea of exactly where the center is.

[HURAKAN]

[storms in NC]

This is out of Wilm and they are saying that it well stay of shore. There is no talk of it coming inland..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
354 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE GEORGIA COAST WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE FINALLY
EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE...FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE EAST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAXIMUM IN
DIURNAL HEATING AND MAINLY AFFECT THE COASTAL COUNTIES...PARTICULARLY
IN SC. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
EAST TO AROUND 90 WEST. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE WITHIN 2 OR 3
DEGREES OF 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY...GFS AND NAM COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT
THAT HIGH. AT FIRST GLANCE MODELS APPEAR UNDERDONE WITH THE
MOISTURE...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FIGHT DRY AIR JUST
INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS. IN LIGHT OF THAT DRY AIR WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE IN POPS...GOING FROM LOW CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE
ON THE COAST FOR SAT...AND TAPERING DOWN IN TIME. IN REALITY I
WOULD THINK THAT THE CUTOFF IN PRECIP WILL BE MUCH SHARPER BUT
STILL CANNOT BE SURE THAT WILL BE OVER LAND.

LOW CENTER WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY...PRETTY WELL
ELIMINATING ANY POPS INLAND AND TURNING OUR ATTENTION TO HEAT.
BOTH ETA/GFS MOS SHOWING TEMPS FLIRTING WITH THE UPPER 90S
INLAND...BUT GIVEN THE WARM BIAS IN SITUATIONS LIKE
THIS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GFS MOS...WOULD NOT EXPECT TO GET ANY
WARMER THAN 95.

&&

[jlauderdal]

I just added a new product that merges surface plots, pressure, streamlines, and base reflectivity (0.5°) into one chart, zoomed down to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

At this time, it shows the low off the coast from the border of Georgia and Florida quite well.

good work, very valuable info here folks, more valuable than say arguing about infrared presentations

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

A 1013 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N80.5W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS
TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AND REMAINS OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE W
ATLC FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 76W-81W.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Center is actually very close to the coast looking at the loops, going to have to move NE to stay offland for more then 12-18hrs IMO. convection is also still a fair deal to the east though the center may well drift towards the deeper convection as well eventually.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING
THUNDERSHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS MAINLY OVER WATER. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE STEADILY FALLING IN THE AREA AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST.

[Weatherfreak14]

From the NWS in CHS:: Extremly intresting....


000FXUS62 KCHS 181123AFDCHSAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC723 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES WITH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFTSLOWLY N OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINACOAST THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AWAY FROMTHE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SAT. ATLC HIGH PRES WILLBUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...


-- Changed Discussion --THERE HAVE BEEN SOME VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 08Z INREGARDS TO THE TROPICAL LOW PRES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. IT APPEARSA NEW SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING NEAR THE WEST WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE EXPANDING SHIELD OF COLD CLOUDTOPS TO THE E OF THE SABSOON NETWORK OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST.THE INITIAL EDDY JUST TO THE E OF BRUNSWICK SEEMS TO BE PLAYINGOUT AND THIS NEW LOW MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OREVENTUALLY A FULL FLEDGED TROPICAL SYSTEM BY THIS WEEKEND GIVENIT/S POTENTIAL NEW FOUND LOCATION. 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE KEEN ONTHIS IDEA AS WELL WITH A 24 HOUR LOW PRES POSITION 40 TO 50 NM SEOF CHARLESTON.WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR KEEPING LOW PRES NEAR THE ATTENDANTCOASTAL FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTSARE LIKELY BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND CERTAINLY THE GULFSTREAM THROUGH SAT.THE MAIN EFFECTS FOR OUR AREA WILL BE THE RISK OF HEAVY TROPICALRAINS DEVELOPING ON THE N AND NE SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESREFLECTION AS IT EASES NNE. WE HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACETODAY AND AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND E OFI-95 IN SE GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MUCH OF TODAY EOF A LINE FROM YEMASSEE TO JAMESTOWN IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE BROADFRONTAL BAND HAS BUCKLED N INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING ANDWITH 2 INCH PWATS...BANDS OF CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SPELL PERIODSOF HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS. EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP IS A BIGQUESTION AND WITH A MID MORNING HIGH TIDE RUNNING WELL OVERPREDICTED LEVELS...WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THE RADAR TRENDS CLOSELY.W OF I-95 A DRIER AIR MASS RESIDES AND CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVELFORCING IS MUCH HARDER TO COME BY. WE LOWERED SOME POPS WELLINLAND AND SHOWED LESS CLOUD COVER WITH THE HIGHEST POPS TODAYADJACENT TO THE COAST IN BOTH GEORGIA AND S CAROLINA.FOR TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HOLDING HIGHS DOWN INTHE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MAYBE A FEW LOWER 90S WELLINLAND.-- End Changed Discussion --&&

[Lowpressure]

Well the above discussion is the most interesting and in depth I have seen yet. Carolinas need rain- but it needs to be inland in the Piedmont and Foothills. Hoping interaction with stalled boundry can moisting things up, right now dew points are quite low.

[HURAKAN]

If the center is reforming near or under the convection, then its chances of development are increasing by the minute if it moves NE or North and not overland.

[Weatherfreak14]

If the new center develops it i still think a N or a slight NW track is possible for the next 24hrs. If it makes landfall it will be Btw Hilton Head and Charleston then turning NNE along the coast. If it starts a NNE track up it can be anywhere from Charleston to Cape Hatteras

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago.

[storms in NC]

From what Wilm and NWS in CHS have to say in their FORECAST DISCUSSION It will stay of shore. But really with it being so close to land I don't think they have a good handle on it yet. It is like they are waitting to see like we are.

[KWT]

The thing is storms In NC they are saying that little low is just an eddy and the realcenter is placed within the convection.

[Weatherfreak14]

Look at this loop. Look east of the old ciriculation. I think I spot the developing new one???
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JAX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes