EPAC: Tropical Depression Alma (01E)

[JonathanBelles]

I dont think its a TD now, but it is very very close, and likely to be one in the next few hours.

[Cyclone1]

I dont think its a TD now, but it is very very close, and likely to be one in the next few hours.

It could be overland in the next few hours. It's chances for becoming TD One-E are slimming down. But it still has a decent shot at TD One.

[KWT]

Yep if it really is as far east as is shown then it will be overland very soon indeed, probably in the next 3hrs if that image is correct IMO. If they are going to upgrade it then its probably going to have to be within the next 6hrs before it starts to lose its good structure overland.

As for its chances on the other side of central America, that really is the big unknown isn't it.

[JonathanBelles]

Is there a Costa Rica National Weather Service or something like it?

[HURAKAN]

Are those arrows wind directions? If so, I'd say we have a TD...

The image shows surface wind measurements. The arrows are just to enhance it.

[HURAKAN]

Is there a Costa Rica National Weather Service or something like it?

I'm surprised. They have a great weather service.



Link: http://www.imn.ac.cr/index.html

[JonathanBelles]

And its in English (option)!!! I was trying to read the mexican one, but I read spanish pretty slow.

[JonathanBelles]

Diagnostic: The system of low pressure, which has been monitored in the last hours, is found stationary in the Pacific to 300 Km to the west of the coasts of Guanacaste. The analyses indicate that the system has been fortified. Due to the previous thing, the stormy conditions have been maintained in the Pacific and the Central Valley, particularly in the Peninsula of Nicoya and the Pacific Central. In these places the rains have been intermittent and rainstorms have been presented; the quantities that have been registered in the last 3 hours they patrol the 80 mm.

Forecast: the numerical models show the intensification of the low pressure, in such a way that could be tropical depression in the next 24-36 hours. At the same time, is anticipated the I arrive of a tropical wave to the country for today in the night and early morning on Thursday. By the previous thing, themselves prove that they continue the stormy conditions in the country, particularly in the Pacific and Central Valley. They will persist the intensity variable rains with rainstorms. The northern part and the Caribbean Region will have remote rainstorms.



By it previously it exposed and given the last analysis, the IMN recommends to maintain the warning in all those prone regions to floods and slidings, particularly of the Pacific North, Pacific Central, Pacific South and Central Valley.



It is foreseen that the swell continues considerably today and tomorrow, particularly in the Pacific Central and Pacific South. It is prevented to all the embarkations so that they take the measures of the case. It is expected that, the day Thursday, in the maritime sector of the Pacific North the swell reach values from 8 to 10 feet; in the Pacific Central, the days Wednesday and Thursday, the maximum swell will be of 10 -14 feet.


The next report will be emitted today to the 2:00 p.m.


W. Stolz

From Costa Rica

Edit: I was there once...now I cant get back lol.

[Derek Ortt]

Ran a test MM5 on this system (to test the ability of MM5 to run using GFDL GRIB2 data for the initial and lateral boundary conditions). Rains may not be quite as heavy as I feared, though this system may not be in a quick hurry to move anywhere

[RL3AO]

I'm late, but here you go.

[HURAKAN]

The Costa Rican's National Meteorological Intitute also has a video of the current conditions. It's in Spanish. Link: http://www.teletica.com/tiempo/index.html

I continue to be surprised how advanced they are. Most countries in Latin America, except for Cuba and Chile, have very poor weather departments because their economies do not allow for money to be spent in weather research.

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Last 5 frames, appears to be moving NW, at least the floater is tracking NW.

[KWT]

Really hard to say what direction its going in, its sooo close to being inland that any eastward jog is going to put it inland.

What I will say is it does seem to be getting better organised again, I really do think it does look like a tropical depression now!

[Cyclone1]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_1km_center_relative_vis_floater

Last 5 frames, appears to be moving NW, at least the floater is tracking NW.

I see what you mean, honestly, I think that might just be an illusion. If anything, I'd say it's stationary.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir4.html

It's easier to tell with a stationary satellite loop.

[Cyclenall]

This is a very intresting one, it is so far east. It looks really good today, ready to become TD1-E.

[tolakram]

This link is temporary but also a good view.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... PE=Animate

Honestly it looks like two areas worthy of invests. Crazy

[KWT]

Yep its certainly a very disturbed area of weather right now down there. IF this system remains offshore for the next 6-12hrs I still think we have a real chance of getting a short-lived tropical depression out of this before it heads inland...after that happens honestly anything could happen with these areas of convection we presently have.

[Evil Jeremy]

To me, it looks like the lower and middle level circulations are being separated from the upper level circulation. Am I crazy, or are they actually being separated?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... D=1km_zoom

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 28 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TRPCL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS
...AT 10N88W 1006 MB GETTING MORE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WHILE
SLOWLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS
TIME BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE AS SECOND LOW PRES OVER
SW CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH IT. ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION
AFFECTS S NICARAGUA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING
WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST TRPCL AIR MASS INFLUX FROM THE SW.
WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AND GUSTY WITHIN 150 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF MEXICO TO PANAMA WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERACTION BETWEEN BOTH LOW PRES CENTERS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AND THEIR TRACKS...BUT PROXIMITY TO LAND
AREAS COULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER ONE FOR
THE TIME BEING. COMPOUNDING THE SCENARIO IS TRPCL WAVE ALONG
80W DISCUSSED BELOW WHICH IS LIKELY BOOST THE PROBABILITY OF
INTENSIFICATION AS MUCH AS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FORECAST.

[MiamiensisWx]

The low level circulation already appears to be drifting very slowly northeast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-vis.html