Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[HURAKAN]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. TWELVE ISSUED AT 1100 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2008.

THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 29TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.50 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 65 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 15.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.00 TO 87.50 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5 .

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

It's been a VSCS for a while now. I tried twice, once on page 5 and once on page 6, to get you to update the thread title but both times you didn't see it.

[HURAKAN]

It's been a VSCS for a while now. I tried twice, once on page 5 and once on page 6, to get you to update the thread title but both times you didn't see it.

Sorry!!!



Looking a lot better now.

[zaqxsw75050]

[Derek Ortt]

latest visibles is showig that the system has nearly recovered totally from its unexpected weakening during the day today.

Looks like a major burst right over the center now, so we should see some quick intensification during the next 6 hours

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTIO31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 86.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 86.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.3N 87.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 16.2N 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.9N 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.5N 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.3N 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 87.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (NARGIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN WRAPPING INTO THE
SYSTEM. SLOW INTENSIFICATION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED UPON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 AND 77 FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION HAS IMPROVED DUE TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE
STORM AND A 292006Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
EAST OF TC 01B. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH-
EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS TRACK AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO
DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODELS AS TO THE DOMINATE
STEERING MECHANISM. THE FAVORED TRACK IS DEPICTED BY THE MAJORITY OF
THE AIDS, WHICH CONTINUE TO TRACK THE STORM PROGRESSIVELY MORE EAST-
WARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS AND THE GFDN TRACKERS
DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH AND A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY THROUGH TAU 48 AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO TAU 72.
THE DYNAMIC AIDS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT THEN PREVIOUS WARNING CYCLES,
BUT REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z,
302100Z AND 010300Z.//

[salmon123]

REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (NARGIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
DEMS INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NEARLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN A REGION OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN FACTOR PREVENTING THE SYSTEM
FROM INTENSIFYING. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEAST-
WARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKERS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS. THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MID-PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT PROGRESSES
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONSEQUENTLY RELAXES. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AND BEGIN DISSIPATING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
NNNN

[badkhan]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI



TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. NINETEEN ISSUED AT 0900 UTC OF 30TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 30TH APRIL 2008.



THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTH AND EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0600 UTC OF 30TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 14.50 N AND LONG 86.50 E, ABOUT 950 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SANDOWAY (48080). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 65 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 13.50 TO 17.00 NORTH AND LONG 85.500 TO 89.00 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.



FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5 .


Now they've started using Sandoway as a reference point instead of Chennai. Perhaps they are expecting a landfall near that city.

[HurricaneRobert]

That's very close to where Cyclone Mala hit.

[HURAKAN]

The system hasn't been able to look as good as it did a few days ago.

[HURAKAN]

65kts-974mb

[Derek Ortt]

I do not understand why the winds wer elwoered

It has a much better signature now than it did yesterday

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

To my amateur eye it looks like 85 mph winds

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is about a Cat 2 as well.

Could this become the third North Indian monster in less than a year?

[Chacor]

You do realise, Crazy, that 85 mph = 74 kts = cat 1?

[CrazyC83]

You do realise, Crazy, that 85 mph = 74 kts = cat 1?

That was my fault - I thought it was 85 kt. Whoops. 75-85 kt does seem right - either high 1 or low 2.

[ugaap]

Nargis is now stronger at 70 knots & 970mb. at 15.5N 89E

[zaqxsw75050]

looking better