ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

This very obviously has a closed circulation now, and has had persistent convection as well...what's the hold-up with declaring it a TD?

Many declared TDs have weakened to much worse-looking states, and managed to retrain a TD label.

And the RECON is in France and we're the 9th planet from the Sun.

[Stormcenter]

What is the chance of development in everyone's opinion? Looks fairly low based on most comments on here.

In the tropics during the month of August I say any disturbance
has a chance. I would put this one at 50/50.

[Ed Mahmoud]

This very obviously has a closed circulation now, and has had persistent convection as well...what's the hold-up with declaring it a TD?

Many declared TDs have weakened to much worse-looking states, and managed to retrain a TD label.

But recon has not found a LLC.

Recon needed to get a bit further South than 14.8ºN, IMHO. My amateur eyeballs are guessing that if an LLC is present (if), it is about 14.8ºN, 52.5ºW

[KWT]

The problem is Ed if anything is down there then there is pretty much nex to nothing in terms of convection bar a tiny amount of that sao called pop corn convection. Saying that lower pressures were found down around 14.8N but no LLC.

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=1

[gatorcane]

well Accuweather has it headed in the general direction of Southern Florida. Go figure....

[artist]

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=1

according to them it looks like a Jeanne or Frances hit. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I hate this watching and waiting...

[cycloneye]

Those are the mother of cones!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Love how concern 1 was not down the middle of the cone because if it was it would be over Lake Okeechobee..

[Honeyko]

This very obviously has a closed circulation now, and has had persistent convection as well...what's the hold-up with declaring it a TD? Many declared TDs have weakened to much worse-looking states, and managed to retrain a TD label.

But recon has not found a LLC.

Recon needed to get a bit further South than 14.8ºN, IMHO. My amateur eyeballs are guessing that if an LLC is present (if), it is about 14.8ºN, 52.5ºW

I sometimes gather the strong impression that Recon needs a live chat-link to an amateur at home with a laptop in bed (he'd be wearing his pajamas, of course, being one of those "new media" types) watching VIS loops while holding a dark mouse arrow in front of various parts to see where surface elements on the south side are scooting left to right from an objective frame of reference.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Link: http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.a ... &article=1

according to them it looks like a Jeanne or Frances hit. Let's see what tomorrow brings.
I hate this watching and waiting...

No wind shear?

Looks like between 10 and 20 knots per CIMMS, and it has the appearance of a system battling shear.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM rolling in..

Looks like a very favorable upper air environment over the next few days..


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[jrod]

There is some model support for a Florida impact, obviously anything over 144hrs++++ need to be looked at with a grain of salt. Besides there are enough top pro's on here who aren't giving it much of a chance to make me doubtful at least in the short term of significant development here.

[Aquawind]

Woah..937mb?

[KWT]

I think that they are talking about the future track Ed, the GFS does show a very low wind shear set-up after 48-72hrs.

[Derek Ortt]

recon very unimpressive

nothing to see folks

[KWT]

I think that they are talking about the future track Ed, the GFS does show a very low wind shear set-up after 48-72hrs.

[gatorcane]

Another SE Florida hit, looks to be very near or over Palm Beach County.

NHC gives it a high probability also so I'd say there is every reason in the world to closely monitor 92L and maybe future Fay.

[HURAKAN]

12/1745 UTC 15.7N 53.2W T1.0/1.0 92L

[MiamiensisWx]

Woah..937mb?

It's actually ~987 mb...

It's also the long range of the Canadian model.