ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CourierPR]

"She's still alive, Jim." Dr. McCoy speaks.

[HURAKAN]

[CourierPR]

Sandy, what is your opinion from looking at that photo?

[KWT]

Latest High Resolution shot (18:45Z) shows popecorn Thunderstorms firing up in a curling fashion extending from NE to West. We should start seeing increase activity overnight and then things may get interesting.

Yep indeed need this to continue for it to get going. Problem is the convection just hasn't been holding long enough for a LLC to get going.

Hurakan, not a bad looking system but convection has certainly weakened recently.

[HURAKAN]

Sandy, what is your opinion from looking at that photo?

Looks like it's trying to organize but it seems everything is not ready for this to crank up. I think the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico will see an increase in precipitation over the next few days and a few gusty winds. The residents in the area should prepare for the possibility of flooding and mudslides but at this time I don't think winds will be a problem. Moreover, there is still the possibility for this system to pass further north. We will have to see.

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[KWT]

Lowest pressure found by recon is interestingly below 15N so there probably is some stacking issues, from the looks of thing maybe fairly major issues with that though there obviously isn't much of a lower level circulation.

[Vortex]

the convection will come as the foundation is being layed out as we speak..

[cycloneye]

the convection will come as the foundation is being layed out as we speak..

What do you mean by that? Remember,there are plenty of new guests here that are novices and dont know those terms.

[alienstorm]

What is the link for the google tropical atlantic recon site.

[HURAKAN]

[kurtpage]

What is the link for the google tropical atlantic recon site.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml

[KWT]

Still looks like the convection is pretty weak, needs to get a bit deeper before this gets any further along in terms of the development phase.

[haml8]

What is the link for the google tropical atlantic recon site.

This is where I got it

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php/Cat/0/Number/1206119/an/0/page/0

[txag2005]

What is the chance of development in everyone's opinion? Looks fairly low based on most comments on here.

[KWT]

Hard to say, right now the odds don't look great within the next 12-24hrs but after that who knows to be honest?

[HURAKAN]

What is the chance of development in everyone's opinion? Looks fairly low based on most comments on here.

The comments concern the system's appearance at the moment. We're in August and anything moving towards land must be watched carefully.

[Honeyko]

This very obviously has a closed circulation now, and has had persistent convection as well...what's the hold-up with declaring it a TD?

Many declared TDs have weakened to much worse-looking states, and managed to retrain a TD label.

[Stormcenter]

The area of convection in the SW Carribean looks more
impressive then 92L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

This very obviously has a closed circulation now, and has had persistent convection as well...what's the hold-up with declaring it a TD?

Many declared TDs have weakened to much worse-looking states, and managed to retrain a TD label.

But recon has not found a LLC.

[KWT]

The simple reason Honeyko is recon can't find even a hint of a LLC...