ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Derek Ortt]

have a look at the IR... whatever was supporting the convection yesterday is not there today.

The convection is in full collapse mode. What you are seeing is the remnant MLC. Chances of development appear to be decreasing in the short term as it moves into lightly more unfavorable conditions

[boca]

I think the center is between the two cloud masses on sat floater.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[txwatcher91]

That could indicate a weak or broad LLC, IMO recon needs to head for that buoy and see what they find there.

It's an odd shift given the position of the buoy relative to the system - maybe a little ancillary surface vortex crossed it moving south ...

What latitude is that buoy at?

[SWFLA_CANE]

have a look at the IR... whatever was supporting the convection yesterday is not there today.

The convection is in full collapse mode. What you are seeing is the remnant MLC. Chances of development appear to be decreasing in the short term as it moves into lightly more unfavorable conditions

Why would a TCFA be issued if the chances of short term development have decreased?

[KWT]

got to agree with Derek at least for now conveciton is clearly decaying overall, not sure why that would be occuring. its not totally decayed mind you as fresh moderate convection is popping near the center which needs to continue for the time being.

[Stratosphere747]

have a look at the IR... whatever was supporting the convection yesterday is not there today.

The convection is in full collapse mode. What you are seeing is the remnant MLC. Chances of development appear to be decreasing in the short term as it moves into lightly more unfavorable conditions

Why would a TCFA be issued if the chances of short term development have decreased?

Check the track record of these "TCFA" watches. Grain of salt is the operative word there.

[HURAKAN]

It should be popping back later tonight.

[Praxus]

TCFA says "CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES "

but Derek says the opposite. Guess we'll see. Derek's track record is pretty damn good though.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,put this new best track position to your google graphics.

AL, 92, 2008081218, , BEST, 0, 163N, 523W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0

[KWT]

Unless convergence has decreased again of course Hurakan which is quite possible I suppose.

16.3 looks close to where that MLC was, also if a center does develop up there even a WNW track would clear the NE Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

got to agree with Derek at least for now conveciton is clearly decaying overall, not sure why that would be occuring. its not totally decayed mind you as fresh moderate convection is popping near the center which needs to continue for the time being.

Well the cloud tops are warming at the same rate across the Atlantic, not just unique to 92L.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[alienstorm]

Recon is reporting mostly east winds near 15N 53W, thus it looks like no LLC as of this time. So this must be the MLC as some boggers have suggested all alone. It looks like we still have a strong open wave.

[JonathanBelles]

FOR MONDAY AUGUST 18 - FRIDAY AUGUST 22: THE PREDICTED FLOW PATTERN AT 500-MB SHOWS A MEAN TROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS FAVORS THE PERSISTENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST (ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST), AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. A POTENTIAL CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS THE EXPECTED CONFIGURATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN AT 500-MB. A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES, AND AN ERODING WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHICH LEAVES THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY VULNERABLE TO ANY APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEMS. ABOUT THIS SAME TIME, AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD PASS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAITS BEFORE RECURVING NORTHWARD UP THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. ALL RESIDENTS AND MARINE INTERESTS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION COMING OUT OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA. IN ALASKA, A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE REGION, PERHAPS AS FAR BACK ALONG THE COAST AS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php

[KWT]

Yep looking like that alienstorm, MLC is still pretty strong but theres no real hint of a LLC looking at recon unless its further east then expected.

[TheRingo]

looks like a high amount of shear in front of it. 30-40knots.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

[Vortex]

Folks,

right now this is very typical of systems in their infancy..The envelope continues to improve and a burst of deep convection overnight will likely bring the mlc to the surface..Tomorrow and Thursday things get interesting with all environmental factors coming together..I'm calling for TD by Wednesday evening and Tropical Storm fay on Thursday..The intensisty in the long range is much more difficult than forecasting where the storm will be..I think in the vicinity of Andros island in the Bahamas on Sunday is a fair bet with intensities ranging from a tropical storm to a higher end Hurricane.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[storms in NC]

OMG I go and work in my garden for a few and now I am 6 pages behind.LOL be back after reading.

[MortisFL]

TCFA says "CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES "

but Derek says the opposite. Guess we'll see. Derek's track record is pretty damn good though.

Your being sarcastic right?

[alienstorm]

Latest High Resolution shot (18:45Z) shows popecorn Thunderstorms firing up in a curling fashion extending from NE to West. We should start seeing increase activity overnight and then things may get interesting.

[abajan]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W/51W S OF
21N OR ABOUT 620 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 18N48W TO 23N57W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OVER BARBADOS
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

Well, outside is bone dry right now but we'll see if that shower activity materializes later as predicted.