Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Blown Away]

If the LLC forms a little farther E of the current model suite that means that 92L will take a little longer to get near the SFL area. Would a slower approach allow the ridge to build in and push 92L into SFL or would it provide more opportunity for 92L to recurve farther E of SFL.

[boca]

If the LLC forms a little farther E of the current model suite that means that 92L will take a little longer to get near the SFL area. Would a slower approach allow the ridge to build in and push 92L into SFL or would it provide more opportunity for 92L to recurve farther E of SFL.

Very good question I like to know the answer to that too.

[Meso]

18z NAM for what it's worth

[gatorcane]

If the LLC forms a little farther E of the current model suite that means that 92L will take a little longer to get near the SFL area. Would a slower approach allow the ridge to build in and push 92L into SFL or would it provide more opportunity for 92L to recurve farther E of SFL.

Very good question I like to know the answer to that too.

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Let's look at the H5 (500MB) steering to help answer this question as shown by GFSX.
Boca if the center forms further east -- which I think it probably will -- it would be less likely to recurve. The GFS forecasts some kind of weakness/trough to pass by the EC around days 3-4 but once it passes, its all ridging from there. That's probably why the GFS pulls future Fay north rather sharply at the end. So if future Fay could reach the Bahamas and offshore SE florida quicker it probably would increase its chances of deflecting northward.

But if it gets delayed to say day 7-8 for a South Florida approach, it probably will bend back to the west. Either way I think SE Florida's best chance of missing any impact for 92L at this point is if 92L gets ripped apart over the Greater Antilles.

GFS 3 day (92L moves more quickly):


GFS 8 day (92L moves less quickly)

[Bocadude85]

Not sure it would take 8 days from where it is now to get to Florida.... I dont think the center relocating would make all that much difference.. look for 92l to be in the vicinity of Florida early next week,

[gatorcane]

yeah 8 days was extreme but for demonstation purposes of the bounds I chose it

[gatorcane]

consensus is tightening it seems but note its bound to change.

the bigger question may be just how strong will it be?

[MusicCityMan]

Very close if not a landfall perhaps on the East coast of FL. This is going 2 be an interesting weekend, watching carefully..

2 local mets here already warning about the possible really close call

[Sal Collaziano]

I'm certainly watching in West Palm Beach.. I have my video camera ready.. YouTube may get a bunch of videos next week... As soon as my condo sells, I'm moving to Palm Beach on the water.. That should be a really interesting spot for pictures and videos..

Very close if not a landfall perhaps on the East coast of FL. This is going 2 be an interesting weekend, watching carefully..

2 local mets here already warning about the possible really close call

[gtsmith]

consensus is tightening it seems but note its bound to change.

the bigger question may be just how strong will it be?

I have to admit I think that is the first time I have ever seen the HWRF on the weatherunderground model map. I've been watching wxunderground for years and don't recall ever seeing it. Wonder what would make them at it?

[physicx07]

Uh yeah! You think?!?

Please let us know where to find those vids! I look forward to seeing them! I've already seen all the hurricane ones on Youtube about 10 times each. LOL Some of the Charley ones were the best.

I'm certainly watching in West Palm Beach.. I have my video camera ready.. YouTube may get a bunch of videos next week... As soon as my condo sells, I'm moving to Palm Beach on the water.. That should be a really interesting spot for pictures and videos..

Very close if not a landfall perhaps on the East coast of FL. This is going 2 be an interesting weekend, watching carefully..

2 local mets here already warning about the possible really close call

[gtsmith]

I'm certainly watching in West Palm Beach.. I have my video camera ready.. YouTube may get a bunch of videos next week... As soon as my condo sells, I'm moving to Palm Beach on the water.. That should be a really interesting spot for pictures and videos..

Very close if not a landfall perhaps on the East coast of FL. This is going 2 be an interesting weekend, watching carefully..

2 local mets here already warning about the possible really close call

Same here...camcorder charged up and ready to go...I bought an HD camcorder last summer, so the pics will be good, not like the ones I shot of Wilma in SD...

[GreenSky]

consensus is tightening it seems but note its bound to change.

the bigger question may be just how strong will it be?

I have to admit I think that is the first time I have ever seen the HWRF on the weatherunderground model map. I've been watching wxunderground for years and don't recall ever seeing it. Wonder what would make them at it?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I would think IMHO that Florida is in a win-win situation with 92L according to these computer model tracks. If 92L stays over water and well north of the Dominican Republic (which is the absolute cyclone killer!) it will recurve....the models predicting possible Florida landfall are showing 92L interacting with the Dominican Republic...So, simply said, if 92L threatens Florida it should not be a strong hurricane but something weaker and may help bring beneficial rain to Lake Okeechobee.

[physicx07]

I believe you are absolutely right, based on the model solutions. But a relatively small deviation (particularly north and if the trough doesn't grab it as as well as advertised) in where the fix happens could throw that out the window.

consensus is tightening it seems but note its bound to change.

the bigger question may be just how strong will it be?

I have to admit I think that is the first time I have ever seen the HWRF on the weatherunderground model map. I've been watching wxunderground for years and don't recall ever seeing it. Wonder what would make them at it?

Correct me if I am wrong, but I would think IMHO that Florida is in a win-win situation with 92L according to these computer model tracks. If 92L stays over water and well north of the Dominican Republic (which is the absolute cyclone killer!) it will recurve....the models predicting possible Florida landfall are showing 92L interacting with the Dominican Republic...So, simply said, if 92L threatens Florida it should not be a strong hurricane but something weaker and may help bring beneficial rain to Lake Okeechobee.

[gtsmith]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I would think IMHO that Florida is in a win-win situation with 92L according to these computer model tracks. If 92L stays over water and well north of the Dominican Republic (which is the absolute cyclone killer!) it will recurve....the models predicting possible Florida landfall are showing 92L interacting with the Dominican Republic...So, simply said, if 92L threatens Florida it should not be a strong hurricane but something weaker and may help bring beneficial rain to Lake Okeechobee.

I'd concur that DR/Haiti can be a storm killer, but there's still over 700 miles between there and s.fla and with these SSTs and low shear...who knows what might happen...not -removed- just thinking aloud

[vbhoutex]

Correct me if I am wrong, but I would think IMHO that Florida is in a win-win situation with 92L according to these computer model tracks. If 92L stays over water and well north of the Dominican Republic (which is the absolute cyclone killer!) it will recurve....the models predicting possible Florida landfall are showing 92L interacting with the Dominican Republic...So, simply said, if 92L threatens Florida it should not be a strong hurricane but something weaker and may help bring beneficial rain to Lake Okeechobee.

I'd concur that DR/Haiti can be a storm killer, but there's still over 700 miles between there and s.fla and with these SSTs and low shear...who knows what might happen...not -removed- just thinking aloud

Hispaniola can definitely be a storm killer, especially if it is not a strongly developed storm. Some of the mountains are close to or possibly over 10,000 ft high iirc. That will definitely disrupt circulation. 2 major questions as to Hispaniola's influence are the track(further S not good for TC, further N, better for TC)(Higher intensity=more to disrupt and more possiblity of TC making it across/through Hispaniola). A lot can change in 700 miles, especially in the tropics.

[KWT]

There isn't much of a circulation to disrupt right now to be honestt, any LLC is real weak and will probably have a hard time regardlessof where it goes, the MLC has the strongest circulation and whilst it will also go over the high mountions it won't be quite so badly affected.

[gtsmith]

There isn't much of a circulation to disrupt right now to be honestt, any LLC is real weak and will probably have a hard time regardlessof where it goes, the MLC has the strongest circulation and whilst it will also go over the high mountions it won't be quite so badly affected.

took the words right out of my fingers...i was about to edit my post and make mention of the fact that we dont really have that much of an organised circulation here to disrupt...kind of like a car with bad suspension going over a speed bump...are you really going to be able to tell there was a speed bump?

[Bocadude85]

shouldnt the 18z models be coming out soon?

[NEXRAD]

shouldnt the 18z models be coming out soon?

Yes, they're mostly out. The 18Z GFDL has shifted right from the 12Z. The newest GFDL keeps the disturbance well offshore Florida, moving it over the Northern Bahamas, the eye moving over Grand Bahama at closest approach to Florida. The 18Z UKMET is similar to its previous run, ditto for the 18Z GFS.

- Jay