ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[txwatcher91]

Greensky, you have obviously not had much experience with investigations as everyone knows that they typically pulse up and down until they become a TS. If they maintained constant deep convection then they would be a TS in no time, but tropical storms take time to form, sometimes a long time, like the TD that weakend and formed Katrina, you just can't give up until there is nothing left, especially with alot of warm water ahead and the Tutt starting to lift north.

[x-y-no]

I pretty sure the sat over lay is not right ... the convection should be SW to NE orientated .. that image east to west...

Check the compass in the upper right corner.

[cycloneye]

661
ABNT20 KNHC 121758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOYS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA.

ANOTHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Stormcenter]

It looks like to me the center is at 17.5n and 53w

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

.......and headed NW.

[txag2005]

Looks like the NHC expects development in the next 24 hours based on that last statement.

[alienstorm]

The structure of this system continues to improve, please note that it is some becoming les longated and more semetrical. Also, note inflow being established from the south and southwest which was not present yesterday. We should statrt seeing increase thunderstorn activity later this afternoon has it is currently on a downward pulse. There is a circulation there, but we will need to see what recon and the NHC decide to do....

[alicia83]

I'm new. Doesn't a Recon flight this early seem a bit premature by several or more hours?

[haml8]

Is anyone else having problems looking at recon in Google Earth?

[Stormcenter]

Here is a good view of 92L. It's pretty obvious where
it's headed at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I strongly believe it's premature and presumptuous to assume 92L will miss the Leeward Islands and NE Caribbean. Earlier, GOES visible imagery indicated the presence of a broad, ill defined low level circulation or sharp wave axis extending from ~14 N to ~16.5 N. Two low level "swirls" were evident near ~14.3 N and ~16.5 N, respectively. Overall, the dominant movement of the broad low level circulation was WNW; it was NOT NW, contrary to some people's views. Recently, the small southern circulation appears to have dissipated, while the northern circulation near 16.5 N appears to have become the dominant LLC. This was aided by development of additional strong thunderstorms in the vicinity (via decent ascent south of the strongest UL divergence), which resulted in stronger low level inflow. Note that visible imagery indicates the LLC is moving WNW, and the extrapolation of this movement would bring the center slightly north of Guadeloupe in the southern Leewards. The strength of the subtropical ridging at 700-850 mb supports a WNW movement toward the southern half of the Leewards, per low level streamline analysis. Models have been slightly too far north within the short term, as I noted yesterday (personally).

Islanders, I've been emphasizing this fact over the past few days... do NOT let your guard down.

Stormcenter, it's not moving NW. The MLC is NOT co-located with the LLC, so the NW movement is likely an illusion.

[KWT]

Not really stormcenter depends on where the center actually is, MLC is pretty evident but that may not be where any lower level center is located. I'd say right now probably WNW but thats only a rough estimate.

[Category 5]

Is anyone else having problems looking at recon in Google Earth?

Tropical Atlantic is have technical problems so it's currently down.

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, if the center around 16N does become the dominant one then whilst the NE Caribbean still needs watching this closely, chances are pretty decent it'll go the north of them given the way the MLC has been trending more to the northern end of WNW recently.

The main issue for me is when does the bend back to the west kick in, once it does then a more favorable set-up will probably develop.

[x-y-no]

Well this is interesting ... winds have completely swung around at Buoy 41040:

Code: Select all

TIME
(GMT)-   WDIR       WSPD
1750   ENE ( 73 deg )   3.6 m/s
1740   ENE ( 67 deg )   3.6 m/s
1730   NE ( 47 deg )   1.9 m/s
1720   WNW ( 300 deg )   1.2 m/s
1710   W ( 272 deg )   2.1 m/s
1700   WNW ( 288 deg )   2.6 m/s
   


[txwatcher91]

That could indicate a weak or broad LLC, IMO recon needs to head for that buoy and see what they find there.

[Aric Dunn]

not a huge deal but a TCFA has been issued

[haml8]

Is anyone else having problems looking at recon in Google Earth?

Tropical Atlantic is have technical problems so it's currently down.

Thanks for the info!

[HURAKAN]

[x-y-no]

That could indicate a weak or broad LLC, IMO recon needs to head for that buoy and see what they find there.

It's an odd shift given the position of the buoy relative to the system - maybe a little ancillary surface vortex crossed it moving south ...

[Aric Dunn]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121600Z AUG 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 121600
UNCLAS //N02146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0N 52.0W TO 18.0N 58.0W DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2.AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE IS LOCATED 850 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JAUN, PUERTO RICO AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15KTS.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(82F - 85F) AND SHEAR DECREASES, MAKING IT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR CANCELLED
BY 131600Z AUG 2008.//