ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see it Derek, also that tail is a sign that the SAL is close. So the maps at cimss are not always very good.

[KWT]

Still looking unlikely that it forms IMO given al lthe factors seem to be starting to go against it. Convection is still trying to develop over the center but its just not enough really right now.

[abajan]

The GDFL insists on developing 94L to a tropical storm (actually as a stronger one than predicted on the previous run) and moving its center just south of Barbados on Wednesday. The projected track is so similar to the previous one that I thought it hadn't been updated.

So I'm not letting my guard down on this one, especially with convection flaring as it is.

[KWT]

Yes I think its still worthy of an invest and being watched but factors are starting to turn less positive still. Just like yesterday all it really needs is one large convective burst but will it get what it needs?

[Blown Away]

I don't expect a upgrade today unless things change big time.

Things have changed quite a bit from 6 hours ago when 94L was mostly void of any deep convection, except for some small burts near the LLC.

[KWT]

Problem is like yesterday is displaced to the west of any circulation, its no more organised then it was for most of yesterday. There has been a small convective development coser to the center over the last couple of hours however...

[Thunder44]

Looking at visible images, it looks like the center trying to tuck itself further into the convection. Also there is more inflow trying to get in from the south.

[ROCK]

Looking at visible images, it looks like the center trying to tuck itself further into the convection. Also there is more inflow trying to get in from the south.

agreed.....need a few more frames this am.

[HURAKAN]

Maybe some good news with this system.

[wxman57]

Convection may be a little weak, but its tops are cooler than Bertha's.

I think the NHC will upgrade it later today. Let's see what the visible loops indicate.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Convection may be a little weak, but its tops are cooler than Bertha's.

I think the NHC will upgrade it later today. Let's see what the visible loops indicate.

It has a nice little LLC, but ULL has dived southward, whereas it is starting to move westward and should move south of Bertha. So expect some shear, I don't believe it will be to bad. I'm more scared of the "tail" of convection starting to form to its northeast. That is a sign of sal.

[KWT]

Thunder44, I'm waiting for Vis imagery because the center is really tough to make out on IR now, there is a convective complex further east where I think the center may be but it does look like its being sheared from the east. I personally don't think its any more organised then about 9hrs ago BUT it has got a olittle better placed convection this morning thats true. TBH I stil ldon't see a depression out of this just yet.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

There is some SAL about but its really not all that severe, not enough to prevent some sort of devlopment if it ever finally gets to that stage!

[Nimbus]

Slower forward motion this morning with a good convection flare. In July it seems as though these lower latitude storms like to spin up west of 45. Usually they gain a little latitude as they spin up so I wonder if the models later today will take her north of Barbados?

[KWT]

There is some SAL about but its really not all that severe, not enough to prevent some sort of devlopment if it ever finally gets to that stage!

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

TC Formation
Potential  Occurrence Frequency
(ATLC / EPAC / WPAC)  Dependent Cases
Included
Possible (Blue) 4% 7% 5% 75%
Fair (Orange) 10% 26% 12% 25%
Good (Red) 20% 46% 18% 5%


[cycloneye]

First visible,I dont see the low as yesterday when it was exposed.

[KWT]

No I think its under one of those convective masses. you can see the way the shear is displacing some of the convection to the west. Saying that it has improved since yesterday. Maybe just a little bit away from being a depression now.

[Nimbus]

The LLC looked like it was under the convection burst near 46W but with weak storms the centers can shift.