ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Aric Dunn]

I think I have found where, there may be a LLC.. If, there is one, and thats it then the llc and mlc are def. not vertically stacked yet.

actually thats good .. cause a little while ago i was tracking some weak banding and was extrapolating a possible area where the center might take shape. I used your picture with my Extrap.. and yeah one of the bands is going right through the mid level swirl.

[gatorcane]

and...notice the TUTT north of 92L has started drifting off to the north now --- leaving more favorable winds between it and the islands for 92L to take advantage of.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Aquawind]

Thing is the competing convection to the SW has weakened and thus allowing the convection to consolidate closer to the ~center as well.

[Tropicswatcher]

buoy 41040 is reporting a west wind now!
1:50 pm W ( 278 deg ) 5.1 kts
1:40 pm W ( 280 deg ) 5.6 kts
1:30 pm W ( 267 deg ) 5.6 kts
1:20 pm W ( 266 deg ) 6.4 kts
1:10 pm W ( 259 deg ) 5.4 kts
1:00 pm WSW ( 244 deg ) 6.2 kts

[GreenSky]

I totally agree with DeltaDog when he says "I think there actually might be a LLC...but, convection will have to improve b4 they declare it a TD..( I would think anyways)"

92L looks like it is about to GO POOF with its convection...



Folks, same old story...when there is impressive convection, NO LLC....when the convection dies out, there IS POSSIBLY A LLC...NEVER BOTH COEXISTING...AS A RESULT I AM WRITING THIS STORM OFF JUST LIKE DEREK DID...I think I am also leaning towards a 10-15% chance of development now...

92L is just another teaser IMO, just like so many other invests this summer.

[gatorcane]

has anybody noticed the MLC seems to have taken a turn to the NW over the past hour or so?

[Aquawind]

Oh my.. Think we need to start a crow recipe thread if were talking about 92L poofing.

[KWT]

Convection is weakening but then again these systems do flare up, I'd bet another nice flare-up develops in the next 6-9hrs. Its why these systems tend to take a while to get going.

[GreenSky]

Is dry air starting to take its toll on 92L?

[HURAKAN]

AL, 92, 2008081212, , BEST, 0, 155N, 508W, 25, 1007,

Another mb down.

[boca]

It looks like to me the center is at 17.5n and 53w

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

The best track estimate seems too far east. I think any possible center would be closer to 52-53W.

[KWT]

The dry air is quite a bit away from the general system, its not the dry air its just the way the convection is waning, these thing ssoften wax and wane until they get upto decent TS strength usually.

[Aric Dunn]

I pretty sure the sat over lay is not right ... the convection should be SW to NE orientated .. that image east to west...

[cheezyWXguy]

Is dry air starting to take its toll on 92L?

No.
Look at the moisture envelope...there are no areas where the dry air is leaking in. Its just pulsing. Go ahead and write it off...I dare you. Who knows, it may never develop. But its pretty damn close and now is the wrong time to write off a system like this.

[haml8]

Is this the LLC some of you are referring to?

[GeneratorPower]

buoy 41040 is reporting a west wind now!
1:50 pm W ( 278 deg ) 5.1 kts
1:40 pm W ( 280 deg ) 5.6 kts
1:30 pm W ( 267 deg ) 5.6 kts
1:20 pm W ( 266 deg ) 6.4 kts
1:10 pm W ( 259 deg ) 5.4 kts
1:00 pm WSW ( 244 deg ) 6.2 kts

More importantly it has persisted for over an hour, meaning it can't be just local thunderstorm winds.

[MWatkins]

Is dry air starting to take its toll on 92L?

There are no signs that "dry air" has been entrained in the core envelope at this time. Could it be an issue down the road? Sure...but right now it's a diurnal down pulse much lie we say this time yesterday.

Chances are some deeper thunderstorms will start up again as we get toward the evening hours.

MW

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 50W/51W S OF
21N OR ABOUT 620 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A 1009 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE LOW WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 18N48W TO 23N57W. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING OVER BARBADOS
LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY.