Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[cheezyWXguy]

we are discussing it because honeyko pimped this system out for a couple days...

I also "pimped" 91L in the Gulf, and suggested, before it was a TD, that tropical storm warnings ought to be posted for southern Louisiana. Everybody dogpiled on with the criticism. But within hours, a plane was in there, it was a TS, and the warnings were posted.

Katrina was slapping Miami as a cat-1 48hrs after developing out of crap system that was lamer-looking than 99L was at any point in the past three days.

I also called for 96L in the Atlantic to puke after seeing a following system drawing off its inflow. People in the thread defended the storm for a day until there was nothing left. (I kept on 99L because it always had inflow, and always had a relatively closed circulation.)

96L became Cristobal

[Honeyko]

Er, 90L. (Whichever one that damn thing was. ....this would be easier if they didn't rotate the same nine numbers multiple times each season.)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST
ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD...WHICH IS DISSIPATING
INLAND ABOUT 80 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE ARE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Honeyko]

Mediocre chance of the following happening: a large CB complex forms SW of the center and develops a mid-level circulation overnight, which drags at the low-level circulation while the CB complex is blown westward.

There haven't been any large blow-ups, but some small cells here and there to the southwest of the swirl; they appear to be doing the job, however, as the swirl is moving due west in recent hours, and is now at 25N/76W, moving over Eleuthera.

[Honeyko]

0804 1930Z center-fix: 22N/62W. WNW heading.
0805 0845Z center-fix: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.
0805 1705Z center-fix: 23N/68W...WNW
0806 0645Z center-fix: 23N/72W. due W heading.
0806 1645Z center-fix: 24.5N/74W...movement NW.
0806 2045Z center-fix: 24.75N/74.75W...movement WNW
0807 0415Z center-fix: 25/75W...drifting WNW.

0807 0815 25N/76.75W...movement W. Small swirl still evident. Easterly shear has relaxed enough to permit limited convection to resume.

[cpdaman]

this thing still has a spiral to it

right by eluthra and i mention this because we still got a yellow box in the central bahamas

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

less shear today

[storms in NC]

May I ask why you think this wave is going to spin up into a TD or TS. It is not. It is a very small rain maker for some one maybe. But it is POOF- gone -over- done.


Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS MINIMAL. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cpdaman]

i don't think it will do anything, but like jim carey said in dumb and dumber "sooooo your saying....... there's a chance!". that's what a swirl in the bahamas means this time of year.

[tailgater]

I just noticed there still some of Ex 99L left in the Bahamas( not much ).
The trough still might lift it out but it could easily miss it also.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html
The ULL might completely finish it off
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vor1Z.html
Dry air, not a big problem.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg
Shear, the map says almost none, which is wrong but it is a lot less than yesterday.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shtZ.html
mid level
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dshrZ.html
There's not much energy left with it, so all in all Ex 99L should be gone completely tomorrow but as cpdaman says there's a chance. I wouldn't bet a nickel on it but I've got nothing else to do while I wait on some work.

[Honeyko]

0804 1930Z: 22N/62W. WNW heading.
0805 0845Z: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.
0805 1705Z: 23N/68W...WNW
0806 0645Z: 23N/72W. due W heading.
0806 1645Z: 24.5N/74W...movement NW.
0806 2045Z: 24.75N/74.75W...movement WNW
0807 0415Z: 25/75W...drifting WNW.
0807 0815Z: 25N/76.75W...movement W.

0807 1515Z: 25N/77W...almost stationary swirl with few CB. Zone of good divergence aloft appears to be over SW portion of circulation.

[Dean4Storms]

I can't believe that the NHC even mentioned this in the TWO!

[wxman57]

I can't hold him back any more!

[cpdaman]

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

lol

he's had a few near death experiences already, someone resesitate him

southerly inflow increasing as of 1600z

[storms in NC]

I can't hold him back any more!

It has been dead for a while now. Should have posted earlier. Some just don't give up on it. and there is nothing there.

[Honeyko]

No swirl in the Bahamas in August over 29C water should ever be considered "dead".

(I'll continue providing fixes so long as there's a swirl.)

1715Z ...still stationary. CBs beginning to refire along E banding (first time for that in two days).

Forecast: Eventual NE drift, then E or ENE movement in 24hrs. Will eventually back-track or loop several days down the road, and attempt another feint at the SE US.

[HURAKAN]

614
ABNT20 KNHC 071742
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

Thats all folks!

[HURAKAN]

Thats all folks!

[Honeyko]

0804 1930Z: 22N/62W. WNW heading.
0805 0845Z: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.
0805 1705Z: 23N/68W...WNW
0806 0645Z: 23N/72W. due W heading.
0806 1645Z: 24.5N/74W...movement NW.
0806 2045Z: 24.75N/74.75W...movement WNW
0807 0415Z: 25/75W...drifting WNW.
0807 0815Z: 25.25N/76.75W...movement W.
0807 1515Z: 25.5N/77W...almost stationary. (Coordinates adjusted.)

0807 1815Z 25.5N/77W...stationary. Swirl elongated N/S, but closed with eastward-moving elements south-side. SE banding convection improving. ULL to east shearing northern part of system while providing divergence over southern part.

[alan1961]

I admire your persistence honeyko, there are plenty of other blobs out there with more convection than the one your monitoring, like one or 2 others have said any swirl or weak circulation in cane season over waters at these temps near to land can't be ignored, you just never know what mother nature can do