ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's becoming very clear where the "center" is trying to form now. Check out this visible and look at the white blob around 16N and 53W heading around NW-WNW.

I think its declared a depression by end-of-day today.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Last few frames you can see the convection popping on the E side of the circulation, no doubt it's broad but very close to 16N/53W, more WNW, IMO.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Did someone mention 15N as a key point to indicate if a storm stays in the Atlantic or the Carribbean? I assume if a storm forms north of 15N (already the case for this one as its above 15N i believe) it stays in the Atlantic. Even if it stays in the Atlantic, is there still a GOM threat?

Best of all worlds, if 12Z GFS is right. This remains just a tropical wave, and moves into SE Texas with the promise of beneficial rainfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_228l.gif


As I mentioned on the model thread, if GFS is wrong, and this gets stronger, deeper steering would probably keep it well East of Texas.

[GreenSky]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's becoming very clear where the "center" is trying to form now. Check out this visible and look at the white blob around 16N and 53W heading around NW-WNW.

I think its declared a depression by end-of-day today.

and with high uncertainty I am going to say the SE Bahamas and Southern Florida need to keep a very close eye on this one. It's just my gut feeling (and because models are in close consensus on it going this way).

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I must admit Gatorcane, 92L looks VERY impressive on that visible loop run...it already looks like it has a defined center of circulation more or less around where you pointed out (I would argue just a little south of where indicated though)

However, I believe that 92L will be yet another teaser of an invest that shows promise of developing but just fizzles out...

[KWT]

Yep center does appear to be trying to form under the now decaying convection, whether or not recon finds enough to suggest an upgrade is another matter mind you but still slowly organising it appears.

Track to the WNW should take it close to the NE Caribbean but the main threat remains Bahamas and Florida IMO as of now.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I see a different center everytime I look, evidence I'm either very bad, even for an amateur, or this is disorganized.

14.9ºN, 52.5ºW is my latest guesstimate. Heading barely North of due West.

[Vortex]

The overall envelope on the latest vis at 1620 contiunes to show overall improvement in organization. The broad and ill defined LLC will probablly take another 12-24 hours to establish itself. This looks more and more like it will pass just north of Puerto Rico and head for the bahamas..

[Weatherfreak14]

Looking very good on visible, looking a lot more organized. Just in time for when the RECON gets there they mite something.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[GreenSky]

Did someone mention 15N as a key point to indicate if a storm stays in the Atlantic or the Carribbean? I assume if a storm forms north of 15N (already the case for this one as its above 15N i believe) it stays in the Atlantic. Even if it stays in the Atlantic, is there still a GOM threat?

Best of all worlds, if 12Z GFS is right. This remains just a tropical wave, and moves into SE Texas with the promise of beneficial rainfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_228l.gif


As I mentioned on the model thread, if GFS is wrong, and this gets stronger, deeper steering would probably keep it well East of Texas.

What are you talking about?! 12Z GFS brings 92L to Texas? or are you just hoping....i believe it is way to premature to make such a bold statement...Edouard already helped out as well as Dolly...other places like the Southeastern Seaboard could use the rain...its always about Texas or Louisiana on this board
Anyways, first focus should be on the Leeward/Windward Islands and Greater Antilles before U.S. landfall speculation takes place...

[KWT]

Not sure its as organised as some think it is, convection is waning again and we need to see that start to fire up again over any developing circulation. My guess is we only have a broad lower level circulation.

[deltadog03]

I think I have found where, there may be a LLC.. If, there is one, and thats it then the llc and mlc are def. not vertically stacked yet.

[artist]

deltadog3 - thanks for the graphic. That is about where I thought they were as well.

[KWT]

Yeah I think thats pretty close Deltadog, can see a fairly decent MLC with the storms seemingly circulating around it. With convection still about near that circulation this may well slowly get better stacked and we could see some development, very interesting!

[Aquawind]

The convection to the south is being drawn right in..convegence is increasing. There could be something at the surface under that deep convection. That blob has persisted.

[gatorcane]

The convection to the south is being drawn right in..convegence is increasing. There could be something at the surface under that deep convection. That blob has persisted.

I agree and was afraid of that even looking at the blob earlier this morning. Let's hope this one just goes poof as I am not liking the synoptic setup at all as I continue to mull over it.

[GreenSky]

The convection to the south is being drawn right in..convegence is increasing. There could be something at the surface under that deep convection. That blob has persisted.

If this trend continues, it looks like some people (including myself) are going to be eating crow.

[Weatherboy1]

It looks to me like the elongated center of this system is really starting to consolidate, with the NE center becoming dominant. Needs some more convection to fire in that area to really get this thing going, but I think we'll have a TD in the next 12-24 hours at most.

[x-y-no]

Wind at Station 41040 now 280 degrees, 3 meters/sec

[tolakram]

I'm not seeing a lot of deep convection and it appears to be decreasing in coverage. The last few frames look interesting but that's about it.

[artist]

The convection to the south is being drawn right in..convegence is increasing. There could be something at the surface under that deep convection. That blob has persisted.

I agree and was afraid of that even looking at the blob earlier this morning. Let's hope this one just goes poof as I am not liking the synoptic setup at all as I continue to mull over it.

literally living just a few miles from one another, I agree.

[KWT]

Yeah the only thing that maybe lacking is a nice big burst of convection, but as others have said convergence is slowly increasing and other conditions look pretty favorable for at least some slow development for now, I should think this one will eventually develop.

Convection decreasing is to be expected in these plusing type systems.