Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[NEXRAD]

It's a very bad idea to interpret much for any precise location impact or land effects from a single set of model runs at 100+ hours out. If the guidance were all tightly clustered, then that'd be one thing, but there remains a huge spread in the models. No doubt the 18Z GFDL and others will show a track different than the 12Z.

About the only real thing anyone can say from the 12Z models is that the current tropical disturbance is of interest to Florida locations at the very least. It bears watching, and perhaps a review of hurricane supplies (which everyone along the US coastal areas should have ready for the hurricane season anyways) but no more than that just yet.

- Jay

[Blown Away]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?

Can somebody post the lat/longs for the 12z GFDL

[RL3AO]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[x-y-no]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?

That was from the Penn State site:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[DESTRUCTION5]

We need a spagetti update..the SFWMD one..

[Bocadude85]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?

Can somebody post the lat/longs for the 12z GFDL

here are the closest points of approach to south florida

108 25.8 79.3 341./ 9.9
114 26.8 79.8 334./11.3

[txwatcher91]

It's a very bad idea to interpret much for any precise location impact or land effects from a single set of model runs at 100+ hours out. If the guidance were all tightly clustered, then that'd be one thing, but there remains a huge spread in the models. No doubt the 18Z GFDL and others will show a track different than the 12Z.
- Jay

Right, main point is, anyone in the islands, Bahamas, Florida and possibly northward need to prepare for the worst.

[Extremeweatherguy]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?

That was from the Penn State site:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

Ah, ok. Thanks.

[gatorcane]

It's a very bad idea to interpret much for any precise location impact or land effects from a single set of model runs at 100+ hours out. If the guidance were all tightly clustered, then that'd be one thing, but there remains a huge spread in the models. No doubt the 18Z GFDL and others will show a track different than the 12Z.
- Jay

Right, main point is, anyone in the islands, Bahamas, Florida and possibly northward need to prepare for the worst.

Considering Wilma seemed liked yesterday, I think its hard to believe SE Florida may have to go through another firedrill already.

[jlauderdal]

It's a very bad idea to interpret much for any precise location impact or land effects from a single set of model runs at 100+ hours out. If the guidance were all tightly clustered, then that'd be one thing, but there remains a huge spread in the models. No doubt the 18Z GFDL and others will show a track different than the 12Z.
- Jay

Right, main point is, anyone in the islands, Bahamas, Florida and possibly northward need to prepare for the worst.

Considering Wilma seemed liked yesterday, I think its hard to believe SE Florida may have to go through another firedrill already.

considering se fl's location in the atlantic basin its surprising there arent more fire drills

[Blown Away]

x-y-no, where do you get those higher resolution GFDL images?

Can somebody post the lat/longs for the 12z GFDL

here are the closest points of approach to south florida

108 25.8 79.3 341./ 9.9
114 26.8 79.8 334./11.3

Only 24 miles E of my home, sorry had to do it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

[Bocadude85]

West Palm Beach is reporting SSE winds thats different then the ssw that has been around for days..perhaps the high is building in?

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z EURO is also now showing an east coast of Florida hit on Tuesday morning...

[Ivanhater]

Uh oh! Then in the gulf Extreme...

[gatorcane]

well how much model consensus do we need with the globals?

Euro, HWRF, and GFDL are zoning in on SE and E Coast of FL or very near thereof

I guess the GFS not being on board is the factor at this point.

interesting trend and I'd say they are coming into better agreement. A few more runs with this kind of agreement and I will be taking heed.

[JonathanBelles]

I certainly dont like the trend.

[Vortex]

Its becoming more clear that Florida may be dealing with Fay in the coming days...

[Javlin]

This was posted by Ronjon on the other theard makes the point for me at least might be better to side with models independent of each other.

From HPC this afternoon:

FINAL...

THE 12Z GFS BACKED OFF ON THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH THE BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE UPDATE PACKAGE...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES OVER MOST OF THE NATION FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN DIRECTING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA...BUT AGREED WITH THE SPECIALIST THERE THAT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER THE STRENGTH OR TRACK OF THIS LOW IS QUITE LOW. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL TAKES THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...THEN LIFTS IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT NORTHWARD WELL SHORT OF THE FLORIDA COAST IN A HEAVILY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

Still cant get these Pics to post!