ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[DESTRUCTION5]

Well looks like the "center" underneath the blob (that is waning now) seems to be taking off IMHO, its around 15-16N

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

This is why i agreed with MW this morning..I see nothing around 14

[gatorcane]

as I said previously (yesterday), if the center forms north of 15N, nearly every system in August over the past 150 years around where 92L is at has gone through the islands or north of them so its pretty signficant (the 15N lattitude) indicator of Western Atlantic vs. Caribbean system.

[HURAKAN]

[bvigal]

Would someone please post something to show me the TUTT mentioned effecting 92L? Do you mean extending from the ULL at approx 30N 50W?

Per arguing with the pro-mets: I think any pro who spends time here deserves a BIG award, and probably has moments of spewing coffee through their nose while reading some of the outrageous posts of we amateurs, who think we know soooo much!!! To play devil's advocate though... folks who spend every spare moment (and some not so spare!) for years looking at weather, are inclined to occassionally have moments of valuable observations.

[Aric Dunn]

only problem the buoy farther west still has a SSE wind.. maybe a bad ob will see here very shortly with recon

[dixiebreeze]

Well said, bvigal.

[HURAKAN]

only problem the buoy farther west still has a SSE wind.. maybe a bad ob will see here very shortly with recon

Code: Select all

1550   WSW ( 246 deg )    6.6 kts
1540   SW ( 231 deg )   7.8 kts
1530   SW ( 215 deg )   5.6 kts
1520   SSW ( 207 deg )   3.7 kts
1510   SSW ( 192 deg )   2.5 kts
1500   SSE ( 147 deg )   2.3 kts

40 minute long bad observation?

[bvigal]

only problem the buoy farther west still has a SSE wind.. maybe a bad ob will see here very shortly with recon

Code: Select all

1550   WSW ( 246 deg )    6.6 kts
1540   SW ( 231 deg )   7.8 kts
1530   SW ( 215 deg )   5.6 kts
1520   SSW ( 207 deg )   3.7 kts
1510   SSW ( 192 deg )   2.5 kts
1500   SSE ( 147 deg )   2.3 kts

40 minute long bad observation?

Hurakan, a little gem there! Is that 41040? I hadn't thought to check those buoys this morning!

P.S. Do you have one of your great pics to show me that TUTT?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Connie and Diane from 1955, this reminds JB of, although his forecast for 92L, drawn in quickly on the teleprompter, seemeed further South than Connie.


"Long Ranger" compared current pattern to 2004, with suggestion things may be shifted a tad farther North.


Matches previous description, Gulf during the early season, Florida to Carolinas, with maybe a New England threat, (or a hurricane up Delaware Bay that floods PHL) during the meat and potatoes of the season.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Connie and Diane from 1955, this reminds JB of, although his forecast for 92L, drawn in quickly on the teleprompter, seemeed further South than Connie.


"Long Ranger" compared current pattern to 2004, with suggestion things may be shifted a tad farther North.


Matches previous description, Gulf during the early season, Florida to Carolinas, with maybe a New England threat, (or a hurricane up Delaware Bay that floods PHL) during the meat and potatoes of the season.

Connie of course...just because she was a NE storm he has been trying to get into that area for the past 4 years...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Connie and Diane from 1955, this reminds JB of, although his forecast for 92L, drawn in quickly on the teleprompter, seemeed further South than Connie.


"Long Ranger" compared current pattern to 2004, with suggestion things may be shifted a tad farther North.


Matches previous description, Gulf during the early season, Florida to Carolinas, with maybe a New England threat, (or a hurricane up Delaware Bay that floods PHL) during the meat and potatoes of the season.

Connie of course...just because she was a NE storm he has been trying to get into that area for the past 4 years...

He doesn't think 92L will be a NE threat. He thinks the track will be south of Connie in 1955.

[gatorcane]

Connie track:

[Aric Dunn]

only problem the buoy farther west still has a SSE wind.. maybe a bad ob will see here very shortly with recon

Code: Select all

1550   WSW ( 246 deg )    6.6 kts
1540   SW ( 231 deg )   7.8 kts
1530   SW ( 215 deg )   5.6 kts
1520   SSW ( 207 deg )   3.7 kts
1510   SSW ( 192 deg )   2.5 kts
1500   SSE ( 147 deg )   2.3 kts

40 minute long bad observation?

somethings funny about it when 2 bouys are by each other and your saying there is a closed circ but the other buoy says otherwise. but I think i was talking about the other buoy maybe being since its not run by the NDBC

[cycloneye]

Bringing a little humor while we wait for the recon data.

[Aric Dunn]

Bringing a little humor while we wait for the recon data.

thats better.. lol

[bvigal]

Connie track:

Interesting! I notice that Connie was at 15.5N (which 92L is already) way back at 36W, and still didn't clear 20N until 65W.

L, you are too funny!

[artist]

good one cycloneye!
I am curious as to what they will find.

[txag2005]

Did someone mention 15N as a key point to indicate if a storm stays in the Atlantic or the Carribbean? I assume if a storm forms north of 15N (already the case for this one as its above 15N i believe) it stays in the Atlantic. Even if it stays in the Atlantic, is there still a GOM threat?

[KWT]

If it forms further north it simply means the US east coast gets more of a threat rather then the Caribbean islands...

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's becoming very clear where the "center" is trying to form now. Check out this visible and look at the white blob around 16N and 53W heading around NW-WNW.

I think its declared a depression by end-of-day today.

and with medium uncertainty I am going to say the SE Bahamas and Southern Florida need to keep a very close eye on this one. It's just my gut feeling (and because models are in close consensus on it heading WNW to W eventually skirting the big islands).

It just needs to pass the TUTT trough axis and it has some potential to really organize IMHO, that would take place in about 2 days from now somewhere just north of the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif