ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jaxfladude]

Help yourselves to some crow if need be, we've all had some in the past!

Some recipes for eating crow
http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.htm

[Derek Ortt]

that's not the convective activity typical of a developing TC

we should see convection more like -70C, not -30C

But can we say that a system with such an apparently well-defined and rather tight LLC won't develop convection over the next 24-48 hours? Let's say the biggest refinery in the Caribbean Sea in St. Croix is now about 96 hours away from this system. Models indicate it could be a hurricane. The refinery needs to start taking preliminary shutdown actions 3-4 days before the possible arrival of TS winds. Failure to start the very long and laborious shutdown procedures at the proper time before ETA could be extremely dangerous (and costly).

What do you tell them tonight? Don't worry, it won't develop? It's a tough call. Tens or possibly hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake. I know they won't make the most major decision of a complete shutdown until about 12-24 hours before ETA, but I have alerted them to the possibility of a hurricane impact Friday evening.

It's a very tough decision. I definately agree on alerting them that there is a chance of development (albiet decreasing rapidly at this time) and most certainly 24 hours ago. I thought a greater than 80% chance of hurricane yesterday

Brings back memories of the Philippe deployment during RAINEX. We had guaranteed the PIs that Philippe would be a hurricane so they deployed to St Croix. However, we only anticipated the Rita development about 24 hours in advance and it led to some issues

[wxman57]

JB says this will definitely be the next TS. Why am I not comforted that JB agrees with me? He also mentioned another development west of Tampa this week and another east of 94L later this week.

Seriously, very few invests have such a well-defined LLC as this and don't eventually develop into at least a TD/TS. The hardest part about developing a TC is usually getting that LLC going. I still think this has a better-than-not shot at becoming at least a TD tomorrow. All it'll take is a flare-up in convection and the NHC will be all over it.

Time for bed. I may get a 3:45am wake-up call if the NHC gets bored overnight and upgrades this thing. Wouldn't mind sleeping all the way to 4:45.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hi folks, looking at the synoptic setup I still give it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 12 hours. I expect convection to increase within the next couple of hours and especially later tonight.

Anybody care to take any bets? I'll see you around the boards tomorrow

Good night all.

[cycloneye]

To both wxman57 and Derek.You guys can agree that intensity forecasts continue to be the biggest challenge for a forecaster at NHC and for the mets in general.

[Derek Ortt]

Well (correct me if I'm wrong) but the John Hope rule of thumb was if a storm does not develop before it gets the Leeward Islands it will not do so in the graveyard until it approaches the Yucatan.

That si one myth that I'd like to see stop being followed

The EC has been the genesis point to quite a few storms the past few years (including each of the last 3 years). It depends upon the environmental conditions

[Squarethecircle]

I do agree with '57, a [well, more than a] bit of convection is all this thing really needs (the only limiting factor, is, of course, whether or not it gets it, and that it does is very significantly possible.).

[DESTRUCTION5]

Look at all the prize fighters throwin in the white towels...I love it...I don't the "poof" is official yet folks...Thiks thing still has a huge shot..IMO

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Hi folks, looking at the synoptic setup I still give it an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 12 hours. I expect convection to increase within the next couple of hours and especially later tonight.

Anybody care to take any bets? I'll see you around the boards tomorrow

Good night all.

I'll take $10 it don't develop and fizzles into left over cirrus depris.

[Derek Ortt]

yes... intensity and especially GENESIS forecasts still leave much work to be desired. I am trying to address some of these via my PhD research

[Jason_B]

Look at all the prize fighters throwin in the white towels...I love it...I don't the "poof" is official yet folks...Thiks thing still has a huge shot..IMO

I have to agree. I think seeing how fast Bertha blossomed we're expecting EVERY storm to do the same and that's just not going to happen. Just have patience and see what happens with it.

[SapphireSea]

yes... intensity and especially GENESIS forecasts still leave much work to be desired. I am trying to address some of these via my PhD research

I wish you luck on that. I would hope to read it one day. I'm still so far from that.

[Squarethecircle]

I remember the story last year for pre-Felix. It wasn't doing too well either for a while, IIRC, until it got near the Lesser Antilles. Fun fact: Felix was also 94L.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I still think it has a chance, but not very high chance. It has a great circulation, but the convection just can't get going. Do these waves normally "blossom" overnight?

[HURAKAN]

The other day people were almost fighting about where the storm was going to "hit." Today it's about survival or death. What a turn of events, but that's the tropics.

[alan1961]

The western part of this invest where the spin is is breaking away from the eastern side and popping a little convection although minimal is this what it needs to get going? thoughts anyone?

[boca]

I still think it has a chance, but not very high chance. It has a great circulation, but the convection just can't get going. Do these waves normally "blossom" overnight?

Yes the diurnal max is at night.

[RL3AO]

What it needs is a case of convergence in a can.

[Stratosphere747]

A slower process than many thought but it's actually getting some convection around the 'center.'

[Derek Ortt]

that pathetic excuse for convection does not cut it