ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

#101 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:06 am

If I were in the position of the NHC I would upgrade this system to TD at 11 AM and wait for the RECON information later on. If there was no RECON mission, then I would take a little more serious the ship report.

Gustywind · #102 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:07 am

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Look at that size, getting fater ad fater impressive for sure... :eek:

what a presentation!

#103 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:10 am

NRL: TD 15.

WmE · #104 Postby **WmE** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:19 am

Yeah a huge system indeed. Impressive for a mid-October system.

Chacor · #105 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:35 am

TCCA22 KNHC 131430
STDCCA

SATELLITE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE RAINFALL ESTIMATES
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1215 UTC MON OCT 13 2008

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...AL982008

MAX RAINFALL
DATE/TIME LOCATION MOTION MEAN LAST
----------- ------------ ------ ------- -------
12/1215 UTC 14.9N 69.6W 270/06 14.5 IN 15.6 IN

LAST RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION...

DISTANCE LEFT OF CENTER RIGHT OF CENTER
------------- --------------- ---------------
0 TO 1 DEGREE 2.8 TO 15.6 IN 3.1 TO 11.9 IN
1 TO 2 DEGREE 1.4 TO 3.4 IN 0.4 TO 2.9 IN
2 TO 3 DEGREE 0.2 TO 1.0 IN 0.0 TO 0.8 IN
3 TO 4 DEGREE 0.0 TO 0.6 IN 0.0 TO 0.2 IN

...LEGEND...

SYSTEM NAME/IDENTIFIER...NAME OR NUMBER ASSIGNED TO SYSTEM
(E.G. TROPICAL STORM ALPHA, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 01, SURFACE TROUGH)

DATE/TIME... DAY OF MONTH AND TIME IN UNIVERSAL TIME
COORDINATES (UTC) IN A DY/HRMN FORMAT

LOCATION... ESTIMATED CENTER OF SYSTEM OR ADVISORY
POSITION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TENTHS
OF DEGREES OF LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE

MOTION... ESTIMATED DIRECTION AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
IN DEGREES AND KNOTS

MEAN MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE 24-HOUR MEAN MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF
RAINFALL FOR THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED
ON FOUR SATELLITE IMAGES SIX HOURS APART

LAST MAXIMUM RAINFALL... THE MAXIMUM ACCUMULATION OF RAINFALL FOR
THE SYSTEM IN INCHES BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGE

RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION... THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN FOUR
DEGREES (240 NM) LEFT AND RIGHT OF THE
SYSTEM CENTER IN ONE DEGREE (60NM)
INCREMENTS...LOOKING DOWNSTREAM
(1 IN = 25.4 MM)

#106 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:44 am

#107 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:45 am

I better go to Home Depot this afternoon.

Seriously,this looks worse than the massive flooding event of September that gave birth later to Kyle.

#108 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:48 am

What's calling for the sudden jerk to the NE?

#109 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:50 am

Luis, the only good news I can see at the moment for Puerto Rico is that if the storm continues to have the area of convection mainly to the east of the center, then there is the possibility that the center passes to the east of Puerto Rico and most of the convection will remain to the east of the island. We will see what happens but it doesn't look good for the NE Caribbean.

#110 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:51 am

AdamFirst wrote:What's calling for the sudden jerk to the NE?

Discussion:
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE
TO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
THEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

#111 Postby **AdamFirst** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:54 am

I see.

Good luck PR if that track verifies, it may get a little wet... :double:

#112 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:57 am

HURAKAN wrote:Luis, the only good news I can see at the moment for Puerto Rico is that if the storm continues to have the area of convection mainly to the east of the center, then there is the possibility that the center passes to the east of Puerto Rico and most of the convection will remain to the east of the island. We will see what happens but it doesn't look good for the NE Caribbean.

Yes,that is the only silver line for us.However,my worrie is how much rainfall Puerto Rico will get even well before the center of TD 15/Omar moves thru or close.Already some rivers are out or close to being out of their banks and still many families haved not recuperated from that massive flood event of last month.

#113 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 9:58 am

The Caribbean is prime for action:

#114 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:02 am

Derek's forecast will be the worse-case scenario in terms of rainfall for Puerto Rico.

#115 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:03 am

Another going against Climatology.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #116 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:05 am

Cycloneye, My prayers are with you and eveeryone on the islands of
Puerto Rico and adjacent islands that may get deadly flooding. I hope
that people are evacuated from mudslide and flood danger zones.

#117 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:06 am

Could this pull a Lenny and start going eastward?

#118 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:07 am

Link: http://www.drought.unl.edu/DM/DM_state.htm?PR

Sanibel · #119 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:11 am

Deep energy stewing over warm Caribbean SST's.

I'm more concerned with the west Caribbean disturbance that the models plucked out of thin air and is now apparently materializing to our south.

#15 and looks like #16 on the way making my 15-9-4 prediction -low-!

#120 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 10:21 am

Sanibel wrote:I'm more concerned with the west Caribbean disturbance that the models plucked out of thin air and is now apparently materializing to our south.

Well that's nice, there is a thread topic for 99L... here we are discussing TD15.

ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Discussion

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Discussion

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Discussion

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