ATL: Marco : Tropical Depression - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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#101 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:51 pm

Notice SHIPS is now calling for a hurricane - I think it might be one within 8-12 hours...
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#102 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:55 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Notice SHIPS is now calling for a hurricane - I think it might be one within 8-12 hours...


After it moves inland. SHIPS doesn't know Mexico is there. DSHP has it weakening at the 24 hr point as it's inland.
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#103 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 06, 2008 2:56 pm

After Humberto and Lorenzo, any chance Mexico issues a hurricane watch at 5?
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#104 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:22 pm

maybe even a warning
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#105 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:25 pm

At least a hurricane watch is necessary with the latest data, although a warning might be prudent considering the intensity.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 13 - Discussion

#106 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:38 pm

BREAKING NEWS=Best Track at 45 kts.

AL, 13, 2008100618, , BEST, 0, 194N, 945W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 25, 1010, 100, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARCO,
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:40 pm

:uarrow: That's old news!!!
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 13 - Discussion

#108 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:41 pm

Still thinking about the un-named storm, per VDM, not much of a warm core, and the center seems Northwest of the convection.

Just a casual observation, as I'm doing real work today, and I am, of course, an amateur.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 13 - Discussion

#109 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:42 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Still thinking about the un-named storm, per VDM, not much of a warm core, and the center seems Northwest of the convection.

Just a casual observation, as I'm doing real work today, and I am, of course, an amateur.


The center is under the convection.
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#110 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:47 pm

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO ROJO
SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 13 - Discussion

#111 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Still thinking about the un-named storm, per VDM, not much of a warm core, and the center seems Northwest of the convection.

Just a casual observation, as I'm doing real work today, and I am, of course, an amateur.


The center is under the convection.


Image
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#112 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:49 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:If you were to put the center of TD #13 right over top the city of Houston, it would probably be sunny at the TX/LA border. :lol:


I do think this is the size of Jerry. When Jerry came ashore with 80 mph winds over Baytown, we were having cloudy skies and light breezes on the west side of Houston. Distance to the center was approximately 45 miles.
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#113 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:49 pm

5 PM:

Marco is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical storm force winds
extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km from the center.


Tracy:

Tropical Cyclone Tracy had gale force winds that only extended 50 km [30 mi] radius when it struck Darwin, Australia, on 24 December,1974

Link: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E5.html
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#114 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:55 pm

Image


Theres Marco if it were over Houston.
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#115 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:55 pm

The comment at the end was interesting re: the Hurricane Hunters being called in with little notice - and they found what I am sure many of us suspected. This really came out of nowhere.
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Re: ATL: Marco : Tropical Storm - Discussion

#116 Postby Category 5 » Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:00 pm

I'd expect a Hurricane warning at 11.

So this is officially as small as Tracy.
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Re: ATL: Marco : Tropical Storm - Discussion

#117 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:02 pm

Category 5 wrote:I'd expect a Hurricane warning at 11.

So this is officially as small as Tracy.


Of course Tracy was a cat 4 when Marco is a 55kt storm.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 13 - Discussion

#118 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:02 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:Still thinking about the un-named storm, per VDM, not much of a warm core, and the center seems Northwest of the convection.

Just a casual observation, as I'm doing real work today, and I am, of course, an amateur.


The center is under the convection.


Image



That is what you get for putting work ahead of the internet...
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Re: ATL: Marco : Tropical Storm - Discussion

#119 Postby Category 5 » Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:03 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Category 5 wrote:I'd expect a Hurricane warning at 11.

So this is officially as small as Tracy.


Of course Tracy was a cat 4 when Marco is a 55kt storm.


Well obviously, but in the size department I mean.
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#120 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:03 pm

Image
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