ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

30kts and almost stationary.

WHXX01 KWBC 280006
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0006 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080828 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 0000 080828 1200 080829 0000 080829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 56.9W 20.8N 58.2W 22.4N 59.7W 24.0N 61.4W
BAMD 19.5N 56.9W 20.1N 57.8W 21.0N 58.9W 22.0N 60.4W
BAMM 19.5N 56.9W 20.3N 57.9W 21.3N 59.2W 22.5N 60.8W
LBAR 19.5N 56.9W 20.0N 57.4W 21.0N 58.6W 22.2N 60.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 0000 080831 0000 080901 0000 080902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 63.0W 28.4N 66.3W 30.4N 68.3W 29.7N 69.8W
BAMD 23.1N 61.8W 24.9N 65.0W 26.0N 67.4W 25.7N 68.4W
BAMM 23.7N 62.3W 25.7N 65.2W 27.0N 67.4W 26.7N 68.7W
LBAR 23.5N 62.0W 25.7N 66.2W 26.9N 69.8W 26.7N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 56.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 56.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gtsmith]

The EURO does not take this storm near Bermuda. Bermuda is at 32.5N 65W...give or take a bit...the Euro's northern most point for 95L in it's forecast is MAYBE 26N ...that's not "up to Bermuda" in my book...it's well south of it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

30kts and almost stationary.

WHXX01 KWBC 280006
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0006 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080828 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 0000 080828 1200 080829 0000 080829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 56.9W 20.8N 58.2W 22.4N 59.7W 24.0N 61.4W
BAMD 19.5N 56.9W 20.1N 57.8W 21.0N 58.9W 22.0N 60.4W
BAMM 19.5N 56.9W 20.3N 57.9W 21.3N 59.2W 22.5N 60.8W
LBAR 19.5N 56.9W 20.0N 57.4W 21.0N 58.6W 22.2N 60.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 0000 080831 0000 080901 0000 080902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 63.0W 28.4N 66.3W 30.4N 68.3W 29.7N 69.8W
BAMD 23.1N 61.8W 24.9N 65.0W 26.0N 67.4W 25.7N 68.4W
BAMM 23.7N 62.3W 25.7N 65.2W 27.0N 67.4W 26.7N 68.7W
LBAR 23.5N 62.0W 25.7N 66.2W 26.9N 69.8W 26.7N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 56.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 56.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Most models see "her" geting caught now...

[Bocadude85]

It would appear that the deeper this system becomes the further south it would stay according to the BAMD

[Tertius]

It would appear that the deeper this system becomes the further south it would stay according to the BAMD

I just noticed that myself. Just goes to show that the old saw about stronger storms going more poleward is a fine general idea but it is often over-ruled by real world conditions.

[Vortex]

models trending towards the euro solution.

[HURAKAN]

models trending towards the euro solution.

How much weird can this season get?!?!?! The tropics continue to get more interesting.

[Sihara]

models trending towards the euro solution.

How much weird can this season get?!?!?! The tropics continue to get more interesting.

It sure is weird! What's a concern with 95L is how, for so long, models showed it recurving - and really it didn't seem to be more than a certified fish - then a couple started trending more west, and now a few others, and it's time to start watching it closely. The Euro solution looked very scary btw.

And now there's something behind 95L as well, moving westward - this could be a long Labor Day Weekend.

[gatorcane]

30kts and almost stationary.

WHXX01 KWBC 280006
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0006 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080828 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080828 0000 080828 1200 080829 0000 080829 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 56.9W 20.8N 58.2W 22.4N 59.7W 24.0N 61.4W
BAMD 19.5N 56.9W 20.1N 57.8W 21.0N 58.9W 22.0N 60.4W
BAMM 19.5N 56.9W 20.3N 57.9W 21.3N 59.2W 22.5N 60.8W
LBAR 19.5N 56.9W 20.0N 57.4W 21.0N 58.6W 22.2N 60.1W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080830 0000 080831 0000 080901 0000 080902 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.6N 63.0W 28.4N 66.3W 30.4N 68.3W 29.7N 69.8W
BAMD 23.1N 61.8W 24.9N 65.0W 26.0N 67.4W 25.7N 68.4W
BAMM 23.7N 62.3W 25.7N 65.2W 27.0N 67.4W 26.7N 68.7W
LBAR 23.5N 62.0W 25.7N 66.2W 26.9N 69.8W 26.7N 72.0W
SHIP 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS 65KTS
DSHP 58KTS 65KTS 67KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.5N LONCUR = 56.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 56.9W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 56.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Most models see "her" geting caught now...

oh boy, that is NOT what the SE Coast wants to see with those models bending West like that.

Seems like more models are on board for a west bend.

[Sihara]

I don't like that model trend either! I don't live on the E. Coast, but where we are, it seems we get more action from "back-door" storms. Like Frances & the infamous Jeanne in '04. What a messy few weeks that was. Yeah, it was way worse on the E. Coast - they really got hammered - but it wasn't exactly pleasant over here either.

[Vortex]

Exerpt from NWS Miami this afternoon:

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE FORECASTING
THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A POWERFUL UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE
NORTHEAST STATES RESULTS IN A DEEP NORTHERLY FETCH OVER THE EAST
COAST...AS WELL AS LOWERING BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESS VALUES AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTH FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAIN TO
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...PWAT VALUES BELOW 1 INCH OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION IN EARLY SEPTEMBER IS AN UNUSUAL SIGHT

If this verifies with a storm to the east there is all the reason in the world that Hannah to be comes back west or even sw with a building ridge off the E coast..This is obviously what the euro is indicating.

[terrapintransit]

What the heck is going on with this thing??

[bahamaswx]

I only see the BAMs and LBAR on board for a westward motion. The globals all recurve her.

[Lifesgud2]

sure looks like this will be a fish. Thats great news.

[Weatherfreak14]

sure looks like this will be a fish. Thats great news.

Now what makes youn think that this will this be completly a fish. Lots of the models show a stall and a drift back to the SW at the end of the run, i think this has a increasing chance of not being a fish.

[O Town]

sure looks like this will be a fish. Thats great news.

That is unless you don't count Bermuda as land. ngps, and hwrf are aiming right at it.

[boca]

A back door front is supposed to sweep thru Florida next week which implies that a strong high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard. Thats why some of the models are trending west or SW. I think Betsy and the Yankee storm of 1935 had tracks simular to what some of the models are predicting.

[SouthFLTropics]

If this was destined to be a fish then she should be on her way already...If you look you can see the trough digging down above her about where Bermuda is. At this point in time 95L seems either stationary or actually moving a bit SW. For the last 2 days the NHC has been mentioning in the TWO that this has been heading NW and I'll be darn if I ever saw any NW motion with that during those 2 days. I'm afraid that if she don't get marching NW soon the trough above her is going to lift out and she'll be left with nowhere to go but West as the high builds back in. I think the 0z runs tonight should prove interesting...Either way it is a very complicated setup right now.

SFT

[boca]

If this was destined to be a fish then she should be on her way already...If you look you can see the trough digging down above her about where Bermuda is. At this point in time 95L seems either stationary or actually moving a bit SW. For the last 2 days the NHC has been mentioning in the TWO that this has been heading NW and I'll be darn if I ever saw any NW motion with that during those 2 days. I'm afraid that if she don't get marching NW soon the trough above her is going to lift out and she'll be left with nowhere to go but West as the high builds back in. I think the 0z runs tonight should prove interesting...Either way it is a very complicated setup right now.

SFT

Agreed and that trough is moving east while 95L sits so I believe the models will trend even more west tomorrow.Here's the proof to back up what SouthFLTropics just said.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[O Town]

A back door front is supposed to sweep thru Florida next week which implies that a strong high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard. Thats why some of the models are trending west or SW. I think Betsy and the Yankee storm of 1935 had tracks simular to what some of the models are predicting.

Yeah Jeanne rings a bell for me.