Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[deltadog03]

ALL of the models are based on that.....Suprised its still alive over there.

[MWatkins]

ALL of the models are based on that.....Suprised its still alive over there.

I wonder if it will impact the runs at all if the model inits are 100NM further east. I suppose it would...especially when dealing with the terrain of Eastern Cuba and the DR. Interesting couple of days ahead.

MW

[HURAKAN]

Eastern Cuba is not a major problem. Pico Turquino, the highest peak in the island, is just 1,974 m (6,476 ft).

On the other hand, the Dominican Republic has a peak, Pico Duarte, that is 3,098 metres (10,164 feet). The highest peak in the Caribbean.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/48/Picoduartemap.jpg

"Pico Duarte is the highest peak in all the Caribbean islands, and for that matter, the tallest mountain in all of the Americas outside of the great western cordilleras ( Rockies, Andes and their associated systems). It lies in the Cordillera Central range, the greatest of the Dominican Republic's mountain chains. The Cordillera Central extends from the plains between San Cristóbal and Baní to the northwestern peninsula of Haiti, where it is known as Massif du Nord. The highest elevations of the Cordillera Central are found in the Pico Duarte and Valle Nuevo massifs."

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pico_Duarte

[ncweatherwizard]

Eastern Cuba is not a major problem. Pico Turquino, the highest peak in the island, is just 1,974 m (6,476 ft).

On the other hand, the Dominican Republic has a peak, Pico Duarte, that is 3,098 metres (10,164 feet). The highest peak in the Caribbean.

6500ft is quite a bit higher than 850mb--that's still plenty high to affect a TC.

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,NOAA is flying from Barbados and Air Force from St Croix.

[JonathanBelles]

CrazyC83,NOAA is flying from Barbados and Air Force from St Croix.

would they be able to take of from St. Croix?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Despite apparent lack of well defined LLC, with tops near -85ºC (wow!), would surprise me not at all if low level flight winds (925 to 700 mb, wherever NOAA WP-3D flies tonight) are in the 50 to 60 knot range.

[MWatkins]

So far looks like lowest surface pressures are up near 19N 66W.

[cheezyWXguy]

So far looks like lowest surface pressures are up near 19N 66W.

suggesting the llc is forming there now. shouldnt be long now...

[GreenSky]

So far looks like lowest surface pressures are up near 19N 66W.

suggesting the llc is forming there now. shouldnt be long now...

I guess from that I can infer that in 2 and a half hours 92L has a good shot of being upgraded

[cheezyWXguy]

So far looks like lowest surface pressures are up near 19N 66W.

suggesting the llc is forming there now. shouldnt be long now...

I guess from that I can infer that in 2 and a half hours 92L has a good shot of being upgraded

I dont know about 2 and a half hours...the llc is developing but isnt too strong now, with FL winds only 15-20kt. I think 11 am will be the first advisory unless it does something stupid.
Woah, nvm...new dropsonde confirming 37kt surface winds, with 1010mb pressure. This could be a 40kt ts within the next 9 hours.

[KWT]

Well we have another set of recon missions soon and will be interesting to see what it makes of that circulation south of PR.

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane is on route to 92L.Will it find a TD?

[cycloneye]

The TCPOD for tommorow and Sunday:

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 15 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-076

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 16/1800Z, 17/0000Z
       B. AF 09DDA CYCLONE
       C. 16/15OOZ
       D. 20.0N 73.7W
       E. 16/1700Z TO 17/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 17/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 10DDA CYCLONE
       C. 16/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 24,000TO 33,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
       A. 17/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 11DDA CYCLONE
       C. 16/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
       A. 17/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 12DDA CYCLONE
       C. 17/0230Z
       D. 20.6N 75.7W
       E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43
       A. RESEARCH
       B. NOAA3 13DDA CYCLONE
       C. 17/0300Z
       D. 20.6N 75.7W
       E. 17/0500Z TO 17/0930Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
       P-3 MISSION EVERY 12 HRS. A G-IV MISSION FOR 18/0000Z.

    3. REMARKS: FIX MISSION FOR 15/06Z AND 15/12Z CANCELED AT
       14/2130Z. RESEARCH MISSION FOR 16/06Z CANCELED AT
       15/1430Z.


[HURAKAN]

NOAA plane is on route to 92L.Will it find a TD?

After the STDS, the basketball referees are betting on TD 6 / Fay.

[bvigal]

92L looked every bit as good at 2:15am as it does now, both sat and radar. Wunderground mentioned 93L had a closed low, because it was seen on quickscat. Well, a couple of days ago, 92L had the same thing. There have been various points in time when, compared to many past systems, this could have been classed, or else an STDS was EASILY justified. Quite a few here have remarked as such over the last couple of days, some even felt it would have been, if it were near U.S. mainland, and indeed, there are past examples.

Not seeing a surface circulation on sat doesn't mean it isn't there - how many times have they discovered them with dropsondes when the experts thought it wasn't there? And not finding it with recon only proves it wasn't found, not that it isn't there. It's not a reverse logic: If you find it, then it's there; doesn't mean if you don't find it, it isn't there.

In 11 years of watching, this one doesn't make sense, and it has nothing to do with the fact that it just came over me. Was there a lapse in recon, or unfortunate timing in storm reorg and flight times that let this slip through? Were they flying this at 2am?

[cycloneye]

URNT11 KNHC 151750
97779 17430 60185 67510 04300 14037 23//8 /0012
41740
RMK AF307 07DDA INVEST OB 03
SWS = 040KTS

Do we have Fay?

[JonathanBelles]

URNT11 KNHC 151750
97779 17430 60185 67510 04300 14037 23//8 /0012
41740
RMK AF307 07DDA INVEST OB 03
SWS = 040KTS

Do we have Fay?

I dont think so.

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde just measured a surface wind of 47 kt.

[HenkL]

LLC is probably on land already in E-DR.

At 1700Z Punta Cana (MDPC) had SSE wind (160°) and 1009 hPa.
At 1800Z same station: E-wind (90°) and 1008 hPa.

At 1800Z La Romana (MDLR): W-wind (270°) and 1010 hPa.
At 1800Z Las Americas (MDSD): NW-wind (330°) and 1011 hPa.