Tropical Depression Boris in EPAC

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not convinced this is even 45KT. The center appears to be exposed well north of the convection

[Derek Ortt]

after looking closer, my center was too far north

with my revised center fix closer to the convection, the 45KT estimate is likely valid

[Cyclenall]

Looks to have formed a CDO with pretty good banding. IMHO would say around 50 knots. Also think that this has about 12-24 hours of to strengthen, if the Anticyclone don't increase eastly shear over the system this could become a hurricane for a short time. We will have to see.

That's what I'm thinking as well. It appears that there is some subtile wrap-around effect going on (seems to be like that for more systems) like Bud and Humberto. It's not doing this very rapid though. Right now there is more spiral banding occurring to the north-west of Boris.

AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
SHEAR...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING AN EARLIER ONSET
AND LONGER DURATION OF THE SHEAR THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON BORIS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.

No!

[cycloneye]

Models at 00:00 UTC keep Boris at 45kts

KMIA 280044
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0044 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080628 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 0000 080628 1200 080629 0000 080629 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 110.4W 14.0N 112.0W 14.6N 113.7W 14.9N 115.2W
BAMD 13.4N 110.4W 14.1N 112.1W 14.6N 113.9W 14.8N 116.1W
BAMM 13.4N 110.4W 14.3N 112.2W 15.0N 114.2W 15.2N 116.6W
LBAR 13.4N 110.4W 14.1N 112.3W 14.9N 114.5W 15.4N 117.1W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 55KTS 56KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 55KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 0000 080701 0000 080702 0000 080703 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.9N 117.1W 14.9N 121.6W 14.3N 126.3W 13.5N 131.0W
BAMD 15.2N 118.7W 16.0N 124.4W 17.4N 129.7W 18.9N 133.7W
BAMM 15.5N 119.4W 16.4N 125.8W 17.9N 131.8W 19.8N 136.5W
LBAR 16.0N 119.9W 17.4N 126.1W 19.5N 131.3W 16.2N 134.4W
SHIP 52KTS 47KTS 43KTS 42KTS
DSHP 52KTS 47KTS 43KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.4N LONCUR = 110.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 109.0W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 107.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Chacor]

ATCF likewise shows no change in intensity.

[Category 5]

Maybe Hurricane Boris within 12 hours?

Not that soon, 24-48 maybe IMO.

[HURAKAN]

[Category 5]

It might not have alot of time though.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

WTPZ22 KNHC 280229
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
0300 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 110.8W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 100SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 110.8W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 110.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 14.0N 111.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 110.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

833
WTPZ42 KNHC 280231
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008

BORIS' CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY COLD...-80 DEG
C...CLOUD TOPS AND THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL INITIAL
INTENSITY. THERE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL
BUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY
SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER BORIS AS A RESULT OF AN INVERTED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
OUTPUT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD FORCE A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL
TRACK. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 13.6N 110.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 14.0N 111.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 14.4N 113.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 114.3W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 03/0000Z 14.5N 125.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Meso]

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 280825
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
0900 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 112.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 111.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 14.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 90SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 112.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR
ALREADY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS
MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER. IN
FACT...IT ASSUMES THAT BORIS HAS ALREADY PEAKED. IN ADDITION...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DECOUPLING THE CYCLONE BY KEEPING THE
LOW-LEVEL PORTION MEANDERING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CONTINUES
WESTWARD. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
BUT A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

BORIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID LEVELS...A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.0N 112.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 113.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 29/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Still looks pretty good IMO and if we had recon I'd bet it'd find higher winds then 45kts in that very deep convection but there you go!

Still heat content and shear start to become unfavorable for much in the way of strengthening soon so probably has 36hrs left to get stronger after that weakening will probably occur.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

85h data shows that northly shear is displacing the mid levels to the south. So in this way 03E is more organized then Boris. About the same strength at the moment. Just different sizes.

[cycloneye]

No change in intensity,still at 45kts.


WHXX01 KMIA 281254
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SAT JUN 28 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS (EP022008) 20080628 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080628 1200 080629 0000 080629 1200 080630 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 112.6W 15.2N 114.2W 15.4N 115.8W 15.7N 117.8W
BAMD 14.4N 112.6W 15.0N 114.3W 15.2N 116.3W 15.5N 118.6W
BAMM 14.4N 112.6W 15.1N 114.6W 15.0N 116.9W 15.0N 119.6W
LBAR 14.4N 112.6W 15.1N 114.6W 15.7N 116.9W 16.4N 119.6W
SHIP 45KTS 44KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 45KTS 44KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080630 1200 080701 1200 080702 1200 080703 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 120.1W 16.4N 125.8W 17.0N 131.9W 18.7N 137.1W
BAMD 15.9N 121.2W 16.8N 126.6W 18.2N 131.4W 20.5N 134.7W
BAMM 14.9N 122.7W 15.2N 128.8W 15.3N 134.1W 16.3N 137.8W
LBAR 17.1N 122.4W 19.0N 127.7W 21.7N 131.6W 25.7N 132.4W
SHIP 37KTS 35KTS 31KTS 29KTS
DSHP 37KTS 35KTS 31KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 112.6W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 110.4W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 109.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

258
WTPZ42 KNHC 281438
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008

OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BORIS IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF A
CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. THIS IS DUE TO
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT...AND
THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS
FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY. THE
LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL TRACK FORECASTS FOR BORIS SHOW SOME SPREAD DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES BOTH REAL...TROPICAL STORM
CRISTINA...AND POTENTIAL...THE LARGE BUT WEAK DISTURBANCE EAST OF
BORIS. AT THIS TIME...BORIS AND CRISTINA APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR
APART FOR SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION. ALSO...THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE
APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO CAUSE BORIS TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF. BASED ON THIS...
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION UNDER
THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE NEW TRACK IS A BIT FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.

WITH THE SHEAR INCREASING...IT APPEARS THAT BORIS HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO PERSIST
FOR 36-72 HR BEFORE DECREASING...AND BY THAT TIME BORIS WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BASED ON THIS...THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24
HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS BOTH FORECAST BORIS TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 14.5N 113.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 14.6N 114.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 14.8N 115.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 14.9N 117.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 15.0N 119.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 15.0N 122.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Visible:

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be in steady state now.

[RL3AO]

Big picture view. You can see Boris, Cristina and the disturbed area to the east.

[HURAKAN]