Myanmar / TC NARGIS (TC 01B) Update: 84,500 dead

[chandramouli]

Hi,

What are the chances of the storm moving westwards.. Its generally observed that most of the cyclones that originate in the bay of bengal move north west or northerly or in a north easterly direction.. Very few storms actually move westwards.. and in fact most cyclones in the month of April or May move northwards or north east..

Any possiblity the storm can move westwards??

Cheers

[Pedro Fernández]

I'm not sure if you have noticed it but I see NARGIS, in the satellite images, much worse than only few hours ago... Windshear has increased to 20 KT... Perhaps this is the reason for that weakening...

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 008
WTIO31 PGTW 290900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (NARGIS) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 85.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 85.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 13.9N 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.7N 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 15.7N 87.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 16.5N 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.7N 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (NARGIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 290430Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MARKED
REDUCTION IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. RECENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES SUGGEST
THIS CHANGE IN STORM STRUCTURE HAS PRODUCED SOME WEAKENING, SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 80 KNOTS. INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM AND A
SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE INDUCING AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALOFT. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE RECENT LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SOME DRIER
AIR ORIGINATING FROM NORTH CENTRAL INDIA IS WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE
STORM CENTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.
ENTRAINMENT OF THIS DRIER AIR MAY ALSO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH LIKELY TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN THE PREVIOUSLY-
DISCUSSED CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A NORTHEASTWARD
TURN AND ACCELERATED VERY SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO ITS RECENT TIGHT, NORTH-
EASTWARD TURN AND A SHIFT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND AN EVENTUAL IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND LOWER VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 48. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE
SOME WEAKENING. OVERALL, FORECAST INTENSITY VALUES HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO ANTICIPATION OF A LESS FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.//
//
NNNN

[Chacor]

FKIN20 VIDP 290910

DTG: 20080429/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC: NARGIS
NR: 06


PSN: N1330 E08530
MOV: N02KT
C: 980 HPA

MAX WIND: 65KT GUSTING TO 75KT

FCST PSN+ 12 HRS: 291800 N1400 E08600
MAX WIND+12 HRS: 75KT
FCST PSN +18HRS: 300000 N1430 E08630
MAX WIND+18HRS : 80KT
FCST PSN+24HRS : 300600 N1500 E08700
MAX WIND+24HRS : 90 KT

NEXT MSG: 20080429/1200Z

Can someone update the title since it's now a 65-kt VSCS?

[Chacor]

Also, I never thought I'd see the day when JTWC and IMD have identical forecasts at 24 hours (90 kt from both).

[Typhoon Hunter]

Nargis is certainly not looking as good as it did yesterday, I guess this is a combination of upwelling (since it's hasn't moved very far) and an increase in wind shear?

Once it gets moving I assume we will see it re-intensify.

[HURAKAN]

Wind shear looks good for the moment but it will increase as the storm increases in latitude.

[HURAKAN]

Doesn't look good at all.

[zaqxsw75050]

look messy...

[P.K.]

RSMC- TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPCAL STORM “NARGIS” ADVISORY NO. TWELVE ISSUED AT 1100 UTC OF 29TH APRIL 2008 BASED ON 0900 UTC CHARTS OF 29TH APRIL 2008.


THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “NARGIS” OVER WESTCENTRAL AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 29TH APRIL 2008 NEAR LAT. 13.50 N AND LONG 85.50 E, ABOUT 550 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279). CURRENT INTENSITY IS T4.0 RPT T4.0 . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS 65 KTS. SEA CONDITION IS PHENOMENAL AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS BETWEEN LATITUDE 10.50 TO 15.50 NORTH AND LONG 82.00 TO 87.50 EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.


FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME MORE TIME AND THEREAFTER, IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS. FORECAST INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC IS T4.5 RPT T4.5 .

Track Forecast is here.

[ugaap]

"Nargis" has weakened to 70 knots located 13.4N 86.1E

[badkhan]

Looks really weak right now. The IMD predicted track is suggesting landfall in Bangladesh while JTWC is suggesting that it'll hit the coast of Myanmar. I hope it follows the JTWC's suggested track because Myanmar's coast is mountainous and much less populated.

[HURAKAN]

Looking really bad right now.

[Chacor]

Nope, does not look good at all.

[Cyclenall]

I have never seen convection disappear as fast as it did 8 hours ago on the east side of Cyclone Nargis, really strange. Just 12 hours ago, it looked like a strong CAT2 and now looks like a depression.

[HURAKAN]

Deep asymmetric convection near center.

[HURAKAN]

Convection making a comeback over the LLC.

[HURAKAN]

Looking much better.

[HURAKAN]

Convection expanding.

[HURAKAN]

BOB 01/2008/19 Dated: 30th April, 2008

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over westcentral and adjoining south Bay of Bengal.

The very severe cyclonic storm “NARGIS” over westcentral and adjoining southt Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 2330 hours IST of today, the 29th April 2008 near lat. 14.0ºN and long. 85.5ºE, about 550 km east-northeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a north- northeasterly direction.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower is likely at many places with isolated heavy falls over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

Strong wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 24 hours. Squally wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph is also likely over Andaman Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours.

Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu & Andhra Pradesh coasts and around Andaman Islands. Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea.