Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Jokwe (TC 22S)

[HURAKAN]

Impressive.

[Squarethecircle]

I'd bet on a weak category four, no less than 115 knots. It's been intensifying really fast.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

With that type of look, it is most likely a medium category 4 cyclone (our scale). The pinhole eye is pretty clear right now. There seems to be more pinholes recently now worldwide in TC's.

The track has changed a few times on the NRL page at least.

[Chacor]

NRL is ridiculously holding it at 95 kt at 00z. MetFrance have this up to 105 kts 10-minute.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 255
WTIO30 FMEE 080010 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/12/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 41.2E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 12 UTC: 16.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP.
CYCL..
24H: 2008/03/09 00 UTC: 17.0S/38.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/03/09 12 UTC: 18.3S/38.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/03/10 00 UTC: 19.6S/38.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/10 12 UTC: 20.7S/38.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/11 00 UTC: 21.6S/37.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0+ AND CI=6.0+

[HurricaneBill]

Take a look at this site:

Code: Select all

http://firinga.free.fr/saison.htm

It is in french but its really good!

You can also reach it here:
http://www.firinga.com

I agree. It is an excellent website. One of the best websites I've seen in regards to cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Very close to landfall.

[HURAKAN]

[btangy]

Looks like the northern eyewall is pounding Mocambique. I just hope the residents of that town were somehow warned, but I fear that might not be the case.

[HURAKAN]

Mocambique should be experiencing very strong rainfall and intense winds.

[Category 5]

Should be making landfall any time now.

[HURAKAN]

Getting closer.

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 300
WTIO30 FMEE 080628
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20072008
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (JOKWE)
2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0600 UTC :
15.3S / 40.8E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES
EAST
)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 080 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 16.1S/39.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
24H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 17.0S/38.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 18.4S/38.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 19.6S/37.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 20.7S/37.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
72H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 21.8S/36.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0- AND CI=6.0-
THIS MIDGET WITH A PIN POINT EYE LESS THAN 10 NM DIAMETER REACTS VERY
QUICKLY TO THE ENVIRONMENT, AND UNDERGOES THEREFORE RAPID VARIATIONS
OF
INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTS WITH THE MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE, SOUTH OF
MOCAMBIQUE ISLAND. LANDFALL IS HOWEVER EXPECTED BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF
MOCAMBIQUE AND ANGOCHE CITY THESE COMING HOURS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE
NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE GOING BACK OVER WATER AT A WEAK STAGE BUT WITH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOURABLE TO RE-INTENSIFICATION.
MSLP IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS INTENSITY STAGE.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

Landfall

[G.B.]

ZCZC 301
WTIO30 FMEE 080629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0600 UTC :
12.6S / 86.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 13.4S/85.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 14.5S/84.1E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 15.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 17.7S/79.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 20.2S/78.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.4S/77.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THE WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE SYSTEM THAT SHOWS
EXPANSIVE
CIRRUS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN

Crostorm

The Warning posted by you earlier is not for JOKWE which is located at approx 15.3S 40.8E. The Warning you posted is for TC 23S NONAME which is located at 12.6S 86.5E.

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 301
WTIO30 FMEE 080629
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13
2.A POSITION 2008/03/08 AT 0600 UTC :
12.6S / 86.5E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES
EAST)
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 350 NO: 180
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300
KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/03/08 18 UTC: 13.4S/85.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP.
STORM.
24H: 2008/03/09 06 UTC: 14.5S/84.1E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
36H: 2008/03/09 18 UTC: 15.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP.
STORM.
48H: 2008/03/10 06 UTC: 17.7S/79.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
60H: 2008/03/10 18 UTC: 20.2S/78.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/03/11 06 UTC: 23.4S/77.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THE WINDSHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY WEAKENED OVER THE SYSTEM THAT SHOWS
EXPANSIVE
CIRRUS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK ON THE NORTHERN THEN NORTHWESTERN
EDGE
OF A STRONG AND STATIONARY UPPER LEVER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO.=
NNNN

Crostorm

The Warning posted by you earlier is not for JOKWE which is located at approx 15.3S 40.8E. The Warning you posted is for TC 23S NONAME which is located at 12.6S 86.5E.

Ups sorry