CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Duddy]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Take a deep breath. People are merely saying that nobody's ever in the all clear. Don't evacuate yet, if in a day or so models point your way, which is doubtful but possible, then get ready to leave. But until then, breathe easy.

Evacuating in Texas isn't all that easy. I was hoping to beat the crowds by watching he discussion and models runs here. Now I find out, from what I read, that the model could be off enough for Dean to head towards me.

I'm sorry, I'm just really freaked out, I really don't want to be in a Cat 3 or 4 storm stuck in traffic.

[Cape Verde]

Well, hell's bells. Here I was getting ready to make some mojitos to celebrate the fact that Dean wasn't going to impact the USA.

Then Dr. Neil Frank raised some questions on TV about 3 hours ago, and it's starting to look like his concerns are valid.


I guess I'll put the rum back in the cupboard.

[canetracker]

Duddy,
As other posters have stated, you just have to be alert. I think its a bit early to call a stall of the ULL as we need to see in the next couple of hours what happens. However, you just need to watch, be prepared, and no need to panic.

[Stratosphere747]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/main.html

Run WV 4km loop.

It's making steady progress, albeit a touch slower. See no indication that it has stalled though.

[Starburst]

Southerngale is right. If this small stall of the ULL continues our Mets will be in here explaining as to why if they see there is a problem.

Now take a deep breath and step away from the computer for awhile.

[srainhoutx]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Take a deep breath. People are merely saying that nobody's ever in the all clear. Don't evacuate yet, if in a day or so models point your way, which is doubtful but possible, then get ready to leave. But until then, breathe easy.

Evacuating in Texas isn't all that easy. I was hoping to beat the crowds by watching he discussion and models runs here. Now I find out, from what I read, that the model could be off enough for Dean to head towards me.

I'm sorry, I'm just really freaked out, I really don't want to be in a Cat 3 or 4 storm stuck in traffic.

As Stated, stay calm and relax. IF things change, there will be time for prudent decisions. I personally had to go through 2 years of this kind of stuff living in Lower FL Keys 2004-2005.

[wxmann_91]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

I'd say Corpus north is in the all-clear, attm. Nothing to worry about

[CrazyC83]

742
URNT15 KNHC 200144
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 19 20070820
013430 1719N 07827W 6960 02740 9562 +108 +108 309092 095 105 056 03
013500 1718N 07828W 6970 02760 9603 +097 +097 314088 089 097 020 01
013530 1717N 07829W 6975 02795 9990 +091 +999 319088 089 091 027 01
013600 1715N 07830W 6962 02842 9990 +089 +999 324088 091 088 022 01
013630 1714N 07832W 6958 02865 9717 +086 +086 331090 098 084 020 01
013700 1713N 07833W 6976 02880 9990 +074 +999 332102 104 080 017 01
013730 1711N 07834W 6973 02911 9990 +068 +999 325091 096 075 027 01
013800 1710N 07836W 6949 02961 9814 +079 +079 326089 091 069 029 01
013830 1709N 07837W 6970 02957 9829 +098 +098 328084 088 067 052 03
013900 1708N 07838W 6968 02978 9865 +084 +084 329081 082 063 007 00
013930 1706N 07840W 6973 02987 9876 +089 +089 332075 077 060 008 00
014000 1705N 07841W 6973 03006 9900 +085 +085 329070 072 058 007 00
014030 1704N 07843W 6959 03032 9915 +082 +082 331065 066 055 007 00
014100 1702N 07844W 6972 03026 9939 +074 +074 329061 065 053 008 03
014130 1701N 07845W 6960 03050 9938 +080 +080 326058 060 050 025 03
014200 1700N 07847W 6967 03050 9942 +084 +084 321056 057 049 006 00
014230 1659N 07848W 6967 03057 9946 +087 +087 321056 057 047 005 00
014300 1657N 07849W 6969 03061 9954 +087 +087 319052 054 046 006 00
014330 1656N 07851W 6966 03066 9964 +082 +082 320049 050 044 006 00
014400 1655N 07852W 6968 03069 9974 +079 +079 323048 049 042 006 00
$$

[mgpetre]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Duddy,

I've been willing to hang my butt on the line for the last day and a half and say this was going to POSSIBLY go more north than the models are suggesting, but I still don't think there is any reason for Houstonians to worry much at all at this point. If the storm totally misses the Yucatan, then we need to worry and we will still have time to evac. If it does not, I don't really see any chance this would go further north than souther TX (and if it were to happen let's just hope it's in the least sparsely populated region and everyone that needs to leave can do so relatively easily.) No reason to worry now though! Just better to think about these possibilities than to sleep on it for a couple of days because we're certain it's a MX storm and to wake up with less than 24hrs to prepare (even in that terrible case, panic does no one any good.)

But to those that told me earlier that the remnants of Erin would have no effect on this situation, I still don't see that. I believe the High that Erin has helped maintain to the west of the SE High we are mostly talking about is part of the reason the ULL has nowhere to go at this moment. Solution to this as it is with all newtonian physics is path of least resistance... that's the part that the models should know best, but they are obviously not infallible.

[otowntiger]

Remember this has a outter eye wall that go's out like 20 miles from the center point(eye pressure min) making it 40 miles wide on last recon. So it is not out of the possible this sucker is going right over them or very close. A 145-150 mph hurricane can have gust to 170-180 mph.

Nope. Not in Kingston, not from this storm. No way. It's been weakening all day, and never got that close to shore. It is not nearly big enough or strong enough to produce those kinds of winds in Kingston that far away from the storm center. Jamaica got VERY lucky once again. Thank God.

Dont do that where you say things because you want to believe theyre true. Jamaica got slammed and and you know it. Reports of nearly 120mph sustained winds hit the island. The sad thing is that even with all that, they WERE lucky. Dean barely missed the coast by less than 5 miles, and has not been weakening, but maintaining strength

I got bad info about him weakening. I opened at site (Palm Beach post) and they had listed the winds at 125 at 8pm. Obviously it was a typo. But the clouds tops have been relatively warm and the storm, although it has widened some, the core is still not that big. Also the storm was much further than 5 miles from shore. MOre like 20-30 and there's a huge difference.

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97264

cat 5 landfall on the Yucatan... cat 3 for heavily populated areas of south Mexico

[tolakram]

I'm having technical difficulties, someone else needs to do pics if they want too.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Take a deep breath. People are merely saying that nobody's ever in the all clear. Don't evacuate yet, if in a day or so models point your way, which is doubtful but possible, then get ready to leave. But until then, breathe easy.

Evacuating in Texas isn't all that easy. I was hoping to beat the crowds by watching he discussion and models runs here. Now I find out, from what I read, that the model could be off enough for Dean to head towards me.

I'm sorry, I'm just really freaked out, I really don't want to be in a Cat 3 or 4 storm stuck in traffic.

Duddy,
I understand your nervousness and concern, but at this time, there is no reason to panic. Wait until the ProMets weigh in before letting yourself get too wound up. There has been a lot of discussion of "what ifs" and "look what he's doing now!" throughout his entire journey, that offered little value towards personal preparations. Our Gulf Coast states will not easily be caught off guard again. For that reason, the Emergency Offices in all the states are activated (and have been at least all day) and watching this evolve very very closely.

It is true that you may see a slightly earlier discussion here by PRO METS that advise a special heads up slightly before your own local Pros, please do not get caught up in all the other jibber jabber and speculation by the novices. Some do have some experience in these matters, but for the most part, we are all just excited amatuers unless we have that ProMet designation by our name.

Pay attention to the NHC and the Pros, and I suggest you heed their warnings and instructions far before any others here.

[HarlequinBoy]

How long do you guys think it will be before we start getting a lot of reports from the island?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I've been watching the wv loop all day and it does appear that the ULL has stalled for the most part. Was this anticipated by the models?

No,it was not.

It was anticipated by a few model runs, but they always tended to stall it much closer to the South Texas coast. I don't think any models stalled it in the central GOM like it may be doing though. For now, we should just monitor it, and if it is still out there by tomorrow morning, then we may need to consider re-thinking things. Until then though, there is really no need to get worried, IMO.

Let's see if there is any shift in tonight's 00z models.

[HURAKAN]

I will just highlight important information.

[CrazyC83]

845
URNT12 KNHC 200150
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/01:31:00Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 18 min W
C. 700 mb 2466 m
D. 121 kt
E. 073 deg 16 nm
F. 160 deg 125 kt
G. 075 deg 021 nm
H. 926 mb
I. 7 C/ 3049 m
J. 16 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z

[Berwick Bay]

I'll repeat something I said earlier, and that is if there is a stall, and its a big IF, then it might be related to an elongating ULL. Something that I had postulated earlier this morning on another board. I've often seen ULL take WSW dips. I thought that this one might "feel" that area over the Bay of Campeche and "stretch" in that direction away from its basic west course (to WSW). This area in the Bay of Campeche is an area of stalled steering currents at this time of the year. If it stretches part of itself down here, then it might not want to move much. Also, by elongating (at least in the short term--couple of days) it might retain something of its circulation over the central Gulf. So you might have a SW to NE ULL axis over the central Gulf, which would induce Dean on a more Northerly route up the Yucatan and toward the central Gulf. Of course that has not happened. But if the ULL stalls I would look to see if it has also elongated and if this might not be part of the reason for the stall.

[HURAKAN]

I'm having technical difficulties, someone else needs to do pics if they want too.

Ok, then I can take over if it's all right.

[Steve]

>>Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Yes. We're all going to die.

Please. You're either pulling everyone's leg or trolling the site. "Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac"? Pay attention to your local news or weather agency. I mean, come on.



Steve