CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HollynLA]

As for the ULL, I speculated on this earlier this morning with friends of mine. I wondered about the possibility of the ULL becoming elongated in the Gulf. Perhaps dipping down into the Bay of Campeche. Wondered whether if that happened, then the forward progress of the ULL might slow as the ULL stretched out along a SW to NE axis from the Bay of Campeche. Its something I've looked for during the day today and will continue to look for tonight and tomorrow.

Berwick, I just responded to you on the other board.
What exactly are you seeing happening as of now? Does it look like it's stalled at this time?

[fasterdisaster]

Absolute catastrophe happening in south Jamaica. If Kingston had 114MPH sustained, could other places where Dean just skirted barely have even higher?

[mutley]

As for the ULL, I speculated on this earlier this morning with friends of mine. I wondered about the possibility of the ULL becoming elongated in the Gulf. Perhaps dipping down into the Bay of Campeche. Wondered whether if that happened, then the forward progress of the ULL might slow as the ULL stretched out along a SW to NE axis from the Bay of Campeche.

Did your speculation include what might happen if it did? If so, please share.

[Cape Verde]

It looks like the high will protect us, but it has to get here in time.


Dr. Frank was speculating about the potential for the storm to squeeze between the ULL moving west, and the high to the east. That could slingshot it very much into Texas.

The odds of that happening seem low tonight. But that's why we watch these storms until they're dead.

[Steve]

Here's a link to the high resolution presentation of the WV channel.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

One interesting thing to check out is the tropical system interacting moisture wise with the upper level low. Some of the outflow from Erin is finding its way back to Louisiana. (I passed through maybe 7 or 8 Erin related showers FWIW). And then where anticyclone over Dean is interacting with the SE portion of the ULL, you are seeing some outer bands and boundaries. With showers setting off on the North Coast of Cuba, it shouldn't be long before the keys and South Florida get some tropical showers from Dean.

I don't know, just something cool to look at.

Steve

[Nimbus]

The gulf ULL does seem to have slowed a little, but its still rolling west slowly. The Anticyclone over Dean has been catching up to the ULL. If Dean starts tracking closer to 290 rather than 280, more pro mets other than Dr Frank may start getting concerned.

[HURAKAN]

[jabman98]

I've been watching the wv loop all day and it does appear that the ULL has stalled for the most part. Was this anticipated by the models?

I'm sure I read on either this thread or the other main Dean thread that one or several of the models predicted a slow down for the ULL for a bit before it picked up again. I've poked around in the threads but can't seem to find it now. Don't know if it was just a guess or based on real model info.

[canetracker]

From my observation of the GFS: The 18z GFS showed a slow progression of the ULL, but not a stall. It also had Dean coming in about 1 degree south of Jamaica from where it really came in. Further, Dean is moving faster than what this model showed.
Check it out:
500 mb loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_500_lu_loop.shtml
Surface loop
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_slp_lu_loop.shtml

[Berwick Bay]

I've watched it during the day today, and it shows signs of elongating as I thought it might, but I can't at this time say that it has slowed or stalled. Perhaps someone could better inform me in this regard. But I'm looking at the back side or east side of the ULL and it still appears to be retreating across the Gulf. I still see the drier air associated with the High Pressure behind the ULL now crossing Fl and making progress into the Eastern Gulf. Will wait over night and into the morning tomorrow to make sure though. Well if the ULL slows it would mean more importantly that the High Pressure Ridge behind it had also slowed (this is the driving force behind Dean westward movement). A slowing ULL would allow for a more northerly component to Dean's move with probably a move into the southern Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan. But right now, I can't say that the ULL has slowed or stalled.

[clfenwi]

As far as that wind observation goes, I wouldn't trust TWC to QC it, but rather to simply report it (without analyzing it). I would, however, trust the NHC to QC it.

Here's the six hour sequence of observations from Kingston:

MKJP 191900Z 35008KT 6000 RA BKN016 SCT020CB OVC100 26/22 Q9983=
MKJP 192000Z 09013KT 6000 BKN018 SCT020CB OVC100 27/21 Q0995=
MKJP 192029Z 10024KT 2000 BKN016 SCT020CB OVC100 25/22 Q0993=
MKJP 192100Z 14070KT 1000 BKN010 SCT016 OVC080 XX/XX Q0992=
MKJP COR 192200Z 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994=
MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994=
MKJP 192300Z E11099OO180KT 0KM BKN008 BKN010CB OVC080 24/24 Q0998=
MKJP 200000Z E11099OO150KT 0KM BKN008 SCT010CB OVC080 25/24 Q1001=
MKJP 200100Z 110P99KT 0000 +SHRASQ BKN008 SC010CB OVC080=

And here's what the NHC had to say in their 0Z advisory:

AN OBSERVATION OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH WAS
REPORTED FROM KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH WAS REPORTED FROM LIONEL TOWN JAMAICA.

That 80 mph from Kingston correlates to the 1900Z observation. Looking at the subsequent observations it looks to me that there was a sensor failure sometime after that. Hopefully, the 11 PM discussion will have a comment on this matter.

[CrazyC83]

660
URNT15 KNHC 200134
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 18 20070820
012430 1734N 07755W 6961 02923 9990 +064 +999 151111 117 091 027 01
012500 1733N 07757W 6965 02886 9990 +068 +999 154121 124 099 039 01
012530 1733N 07759W 6940 02878 9990 +078 +999 162110 121 117 026 05
012600 1733N 07801W 6991 02779 9990 +091 +999 153103 105 119 004 05
012630 1732N 07803W 6975 02764 9586 +130 +130 153111 112 121 003 00
012700 1732N 07804W 6969 02735 9533 +139 +139 156115 117 108 002 00
012730 1732N 07806W 6969 02685 9492 +129 +129 157116 117 098 000 00
012800 1732N 07808W 6972 02627 9428 +134 +134 155117 119 089 005 00
012830 1731N 07810W 6969 02574 9382 +124 +124 154104 112 087 006 00
012900 1731N 07812W 6954 02549 9304 +153 +153 144061 073 070 003 00
012930 1730N 07814W 6969 02515 9284 +159 +159 147037 046 051 004 00
013000 1729N 07815W 6966 02508 9276 +155 +155 157021 026 034 003 00
013030 1728N 07817W 6968 02503 9273 +154 +154 173012 015 026 004 03
013100 1728N 07819W 6965 02506 9274 +155 +155 234005 007 017 002 03
013130 1727N 07820W 6964 02512 9281 +154 +154 300015 021 022 004 03
013200 1725N 07821W 6967 02523 9291 +155 +155 308029 033 036 004 03
013230 1724N 07823W 6966 02543 9311 +155 +155 314042 045 041 003 03
013300 1723N 07824W 6970 02566 9990 +118 +999 313069 087 106 031 05
013330 1721N 07824W 6992 02604 9990 +093 +999 305101 103 105 039 05
013400 1720N 07825W 6969 02680 9543 +092 +092 308096 098 111 023 01
$$

124 kt FL and 927mb

[Duddy]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

[mutley]

I've watched it during the day today, and it shows signs of elongating as I thought it might, but I can't at this time say that it has slowed or stalled. Perhaps someone could better inform me in this regard. But I'm looking at the back side or east side of the ULL and it still appears to be retreating across the Gulf. I still see the drier air associated with the High Pressure behind the ULL now crossing Fl and making progress into the Eastern Gulf. Will wait over night and into the morning tomorrow to make sure though. Well if the ULL slows it would mean more importantly that the High Pressure Ridge behind it had also slowed (this is the driving force behind Dean westward movement). A slowing ULL would allow for a more northerly component to Dean's move with probably a move into the southern Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan. But right now, I can't say that the ULL has slowed or stalled.

Very interesting. Thank you for your thoughts.

[tolakram]

[srainhoutx]

Stay Calm, we still have time to act prudently

[HollynLA]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Relax, we've pointed out some observations but nothing more than that. For now, everything is going as planned.......

[fasterdisaster]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

Take a deep breath. People are merely saying that nobody's ever in the all clear. Don't evacuate yet, if in a day or so models point your way, which is doubtful but possible, then get ready to leave. But until then, breathe easy.

[TampaFl]

[southerngale]

OMG, why the hell is this happening?!

I finally start to relax thinking this thing was going to Mexico, and now I find out the models couold be wrong?!


Could someone seriously find out if I need to start evac?

No, you shouldn't. Relax... IF (big IF) there was a drastic change, the mets on here would be on it.