CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[timNms]

I asked that question (and a few others) last night and one person responded.

what was the response.

as i said earlier i think something screwy could happen in the next few days. just feels funny to me.

also another observation of mine is that if the high is supposed to be building into texas next week bloking dean why arnt our temps forcasted to be as increadibly hot as they were the past couple weeks when the high was over us?

Without searching for the reply, in a nutshell another Mississippian said they were concerned about the same thing

[kozzieman]

How big is Dean's eye?

[tallywx]

I noticed this METAR communication came through from Kingston at 2200z. Can anyone decode it? The numbers/letters used in the wind section seem a bit peculiar...

METAR MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994

[wxmann_91]

The scenario most likely to happen is the one that the ECMWF has been progging for days. The ULL will move northwest and get caught in the Westerlies. A massive ridge will build back behind it. Right now I'm not even ruling out that Dean will not even reach the BOC. Especially if Dean moves far south enough so that it basically gets pwned in the mountains and gets steered by low level flow. In other words, an Iris/Chantal 2001 redux.

[temujin]

they sound cool and calm to me. jamiaca will be back in business on Tuesday after some cleanup tomorrow, foxnews is sitting in Kingston, i have been in that hotel many times, no massive damage.

Didn't FNC say that New Orleans would be letting the good times roll, right after Katrina went through?

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 192256
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 02 20070819
224430 1738N 06502W 7286 02832 0124 +107 +017 052013 013 027 000 03
224500 1738N 06504W 7097 03049 0118 +100 -009 058012 013 999 999 03
224530 1738N 06506W 6923 03257 0115 +091 -033 066012 013 029 000 03
224600 1739N 06508W 6758 03457 0117 +078 -041 077013 013 027 000 03
224630 1739N 06510W 6570 03687 0123 +061 -044 075013 013 027 000 03
224700 1739N 06512W 6521 03759 0140 +052 -051 070013 013 028 000 00
224730 1740N 06514W 6454 03843 0135 +049 -061 066013 014 027 000 00
224800 1740N 06516W 6232 04127 0125 +039 -149 046015 015 028 000 03
224830 1740N 06518W 6007 04423 0113 +026 -173 050015 016 999 999 03
224900 1740N 06520W 5864 04616 0119 +009 -165 047016 016 999 999 03
224930 1740N 06522W 5697 04847 0114 -002 -198 040016 016 999 999 03
225000 1739N 06524W 5584 05007 0110 -011 -202 042016 016 999 999 03
225030 1739N 06526W 5477 05161 0267 -020 -213 044017 017 999 999 03
225100 1739N 06528W 5377 05308 0276 -029 -228 048017 017 999 999 03
225130 1739N 06530W 5333 05378 0282 -035 -226 046018 018 027 000 00
225200 1739N 06532W 5323 05390 0283 -035 -232 045018 018 026 000 00
225230 1739N 06534W 5211 05555 0290 -046 -228 043017 017 028 000 00
225300 1739N 06536W 5111 05709 0299 -053 -280 033015 017 026 000 00
225330 1739N 06539W 5026 05842 0308 -062 -273 032016 017 027 000 00
225400 1738N 06541W 4990 05903 0316 -065 -293 032017 018 027 000 00

[sevenleft]

I noticed this METAR communication came through from Kingston at 2200z. Can anyone decode it? The numbers/letters used in the wind section seem a bit peculiar...

METAR MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994

I will assume they are saying 99 knots sustained, 120 knots gusts, direction 100 degrees.

[Extremeweatherguy]

TWC just said Kingston was seeing winds sustained at 114mph with gusts to 138mph!

[sau27]

again if this massive high is buildng in why are the temps here in houston at least supposed to be in the low 90s which is normal and not in the 100's as they were when the high was over us

[KBBOCA]

Looking at the vis loop, it seems that Dean's windfield might be expanding again? The outflow seems much larger in the last few frames. Is that a correct assumption from what we're seeing?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[wxmann_91]

again if this massive high is buildng in why are the temps here in houston at least supposed to be in the low 90s which is normal and not in the 100's as they were when the high was over us

Higher dewpoints keeping temperatures down? I have no idea, not that it's really relevant to Dean.

[tallywx]

TWC just said Kingston was seeing winds sustained at 114mph with gusts to 138mph!

That would confirm the METAR report I just posted. That's insane speeds for not being in the eyewall. Shades of Andrew conditions at the NHC Coral Gables office.

[clfenwi]

I noticed this METAR communication came through from Kingston at 2200z. Can anyone decode it? The numbers/letters used in the wind section seem a bit peculiar...

METAR MKJP 192200Z COR 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994

The only thing I can guess when it comes to decoding the wind group is that *maybe* it's supposed to be 99 knots, gust of 120 (if that's the case, then it was improperly coded. The oddity is that there are two 'corrections' but no original. Both oddities understandable given the circumstances.) We'll have to wait and see if the 8 PM advisory makes any mention of it.

[theworld]

Dean just moved into warmer water, I would expect strengthing.

[Derek Ortt]

that is cat 3 sustained for Kingston, probably worse for May Pen

[Scorpion]

If Kingston is getting Cat 3 winds I expect there to be massive damage there. I can only imagine the more southern communities to be all but gone as they likely recieved the Cat 4 winds

[aguaviva]

It is not that the eyewall has retreated, it is that the land mass is a bit further north after the point. The storm must actually move due west in order for the eyewall to avoid any further land.

[Derek Ortt]

Kingston had sustained category 3 winds of 114 mph with a peak gust to 138 mph

[Pearl River]

Latest METAR Observation(s) for: MKJP
MKJP
The most recent METAR observation from MKJP in our system was generated at the source at:

2007/08/19 23:00 UTC

The observation is:

MKJP 192300Z E11099OO180KT 0KM BKN008 BKN010CB OVC080 24/24 Q0998

[aguaviva]

114 mph sustained gusting to 138 mph in Kingston? During Hugo's PR vacation, SJ never got gusts over 94 mph. Damage in Kingston will look like damage to Fajardo PR during Hugo. Bad.