CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Raebie]

If it stays on it's present course, it's gonna rake the entire SW side of the island.

[mutley]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The latest Frontal NHC satellite overlay depicts a 1015 High Near Tampico. Unless the High Moves out the way, how exactly is the ULL going to make more Westward progress?

I was going to mention that too. The ULL does seem to be slowing, bumping into an area of high pressure. But the high over Florida does seem to be filling in nicely behind the ULL. Interesting, but too complicated for me.

Maybe the Highs will be bridged hence the reason for the increasingly Southern track by many models.

To me, if that happened, it would make sense of the track. But looking at the GFS, it looks like it dissipates the high over Mexico. And let me add, I know it is me that is clueless here.

[HouTXmetro]

That makes sense if the GFS dissapates the High.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/08/19/storms/index.html

2 dead in Haiti

[timNms]

Maybe the Highs will be bridged hence the reason for the increasingly Southern track by many models.

if the highs bridge wouldnt that block the ULL and cause it to sit on the tx coast

Good point, now that I tihnk about it the only way those Highs can bridge is if the ULL completley dissapates, and obviously that won't happen anytime soon. So I pose the question agan, If the High near Tampico stays put, how exactly is the ULL going to move into Mexico?

I asked that question (and a few others) last night and one person responded.

[jlauderdal]

It's 146 mi in length and as much as 50 mi in width.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica

Thankyou... exact info i was looking for. People starting to sound really frightened on Power 106

they sound cool and calm to me. jamiaca will be back in business on Tuesday after some cleanup tomorrow, foxnews is sitting in Kingston, i have been in that hotel many times, no massive damage.

[gotoman38]

567
URNT15 KNHC 192245
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 01 20070819
223430 1742N 06448W 0128 00007 0131 +276 +224 360000 000 999 999 03
223500 1742N 06448W 0127 00009 0138 +278 +223 360000 000 999 999 03
223530 1742N 06448W 0124 00010 0138 +278 +225 360000 000 999 999 03
223600 1742N 06448W 0122 00013 0138 +266 +217 360000 000 999 999 03
223630 1742N 06449W 0119 00015 0137 +275 +221 360000 000 999 999 03
223700 1742N 06449W 0116 00016 0137 +275 +222 360000 000 999 999 03
223730 1742N 06449W 0110 00018 0133 +279 +225 360000 000 999 999 03
223800 1742N 06449W 0115 00018 0136 +276 +222 360000 000 999 999 03
223830 1742N 06449W 0112 00019 0135 +274 +226 076000 001 999 999 03
223900 1742N 06448W 0124 00014 0131 +272 +234 086005 008 999 999 03
223930 1742N 06447W 9910 00195 0133 +258 +227 084006 007 999 999 03
224000 1741N 06446W 9751 00334 0130 +244 +220 066009 011 999 999 03
224030 1740N 06447W 9406 00652 0133 +220 +199 071015 017 999 999 03
224100 1739N 06449W 9108 00933 0132 +203 +177 073019 020 999 999 03
224130 1739N 06451W 8795 01233 0134 +184 +160 070019 019 999 999 03
224200 1739N 06453W 8503 01523 0135 +165 +147 064019 019 999 999 03
224230 1738N 06454W 8269 01760 0134 +151 +131 060018 019 028 000 03
224300 1738N 06456W 7975 02072 0129 +145 +096 063016 017 999 999 03
224330 1738N 06458W 7727 02334 0126 +132 +061 055014 015 999 999 03
224400 1737N 06500W 7477 02612 0125 +119 +021 043013 013 999 999 03
$$

They're rolling

[Solaris]

don't know if this is true but Kingston airports reports 120 kts

MKJP COR 192200Z 10099OO120KT 0KM BKN010 BKN012CB OVC080 XX/XX Q0994

[Zardoz]

Am I correct in assuming that, since the center did not pass over land, Dean will have lost little intensity after passing by Jamaica, and will enter the hot waters of the western Caribbean with a bone in his teeth?

[Aquawind]

Am I correct in assuming that, since the center did not pass over land, Dean will have lost little intensity after passing by Jamaica, and will enter the hot waters of the western Caribbean with a bone in his teeth?

Bingo.. woof woof

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes you may very well be correct!

[shawn67]

It's 146 mi in length and as much as 50 mi in width.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica

Thankyou... exact info i was looking for. People starting to sound really frightened on Power 106

they sound cool and calm to me. jamiaca will be back in business on Tuesday after some cleanup tomorrow, foxnews is sitting in Kingston, i have been in that hotel many times, no massive damage.

I think you are overly downplaying the potential for damage outside of metropolitan kingston

[aguaviva]

Jamaica back in business by next week? Seriously doubt it.

[sau27]

I asked that question (and a few others) last night and one person responded.

what was the response.

as i said earlier i think something screwy could happen in the next few days. just feels funny to me.

also another observation of mine is that if the high is supposed to be building into texas next week bloking dean why arnt our temps forcasted to be as increadibly hot as they were the past couple weeks when the high was over us?

[tolakram]

[theworld]

[O Town]

Current Weather Conditions:
Kingston / Norman Manley, Jamaica

Conditions at Aug 19, 2007 - 05:00 PM ED
2007.08.19 2100 UTC

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 81 MPH (70 KT)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions overcast
Pressure (altimeter) 29.29 in. Hg (0992 hPa)
ob MKJP 192100Z 14070KT 1000 BKN010 SCT016 OVC080 XX/XX Q099

Will be interesting to see what the next report will say for the 6:00, I think that may have been the worst of it for Kingston though.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

[sau27]

i am curious about something. If the high is supposed to build into texas blocking dean why arnt the temps for here in houston forcasted to be as insanely hot as they were for the past couple weeks when the high was over us.

[tallywx]

Looks like the eyewall has moved back offshore. It looks like May Pen will have dodged the worst of it. That's great news, because the southern coast from here on out is sparsely populated.

[tailgater]

I think the ULL will continue WNW and weaken more, the High at surface over Mexico will not make much difference. I do think we will see a more northerly motion out of Dean for the next few hours then back to mostly west. Looks like it wants hit all the western Caribbean cruise ships ports. Kingston,Caymans and Cozumel.