CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Pebbles]

Derek or someone else know how wide that island is max north to south and east to west in miles? Trying to get an idea of how big that island actually is.

[Aquawind]

May Pen, a city of 60,000 may be next in line for the eyewall

Looking at radar I am not sure the strongest wall is going to blast them like the point.. Looks directly south of the point.. granted it's on long range radar..

[Canelaw99]

It's 146 mi in length and as much as 50 mi in width.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica

[aguaviva]

the Cuban radar shows the actual northern fringe of the eye right by the point at 6:10 pm. Between 17.6 and 17.7. Nasty, real nasty.

[Sanibel]

Those fishermen holed up in the goverment building on Pedro Cayes are experiencing the south eyewall right now.

Dean on closest pass of Jamaica now.

[Cape Verde]

I understand that it's 146 miles from east to west, so the north/south distance can't be much over 50 miles at its widest point.

[Stratosphere747]

[windnrain]

Looks like they may have dodged a bullet. A west wobble on the latest radar image.

[Pebbles]

It's 146 mi in length and as much as 50 mi in width.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamaica

Thankyou... exact info i was looking for. People starting to sound really frightened on Power 106

[mutley]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The latest Frontal NHC satellite overlay depicts a 1015 High Near Tampico. Unless the High Moves out the way, how exactly is the ULL going to make more Westward progress?

I was going to mention that too. The ULL does seem to be slowing, bumping into an area of high pressure. But the high over Florida does seem to be filling in nicely behind the ULL. Interesting, but too complicated for me.

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

The latest Frontal NHC satellite overlay depicts a 1015 High Near Tampico. Unless the High Moves out the way, how exactly is the ULL going to make more Westward progress?

I was going to mention that too. The ULL does seem to be slowing, bumping into an area of high pressure. But the high over Florida does seem to be filling in nicely behind the ULL. Interesting, but too complicated for me.

Maybe the Highs will be bridged hence the reason for the increasingly Southern track by many models.

[Typhoon_Willie]

He he I am not sure that the Jamaicans feel that they have dodged a bullet as the north eye wall is skimming the southern coastline right now.

[Pebbles]

The eye sure looks like it's contracting a bit on radar and sat loop... do you agree?

[windnrain]

He he I am not sure that the Jamaicans feel that they have dodged a bullet as the north eye wall is skimming the southern coastline right now.

Seems like it only is skimming the little peninsula sticking out. The rest of the coast looks like it'll miss the eyewall.

[Derek Ortt]

its NOT a west wobble

It is an illusion as the smaller inner eye rotates around the lager outer eye

[sau27]

Maybe the Highs will be bridged hence the reason for the increasingly Southern track by many models.

if the highs bridge wouldnt that block the ULL and cause it to sit on the tx coast

[windnrain]

its NOT a west wobble

It is an illusion as the smaller inner eye rotates around the lager outer eye

Good to know.

[Derek Ortt]

I think the NE edge of the eyewall is going to get May Pen as it is still moving north of due west. may Pen is at about 17.9N and the eyewall is at about 17.8N

[Sanibel]

We'll probably find that the bottom 1/3rd of the island suffered the next stage below a direct eye hit.

The next hour or two will be Dean's worst swipe at the bottom part of the island.

No picnic there in May Pen.

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe the Highs will be bridged hence the reason for the increasingly Southern track by many models.

if the highs bridge wouldnt that block the ULL and cause it to sit on the tx coast

Good point, now that I tihnk about it the only way those Highs can bridge is if the ULL completley dissapates, and obviously that won't happen anytime soon. So I pose the question agan, If the High near Tampico stays put, how exactly is the ULL going to move into Mexico?