CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

One thing I do notice is that Dean is currently tracking along the far northern end of the 18z model guidance envelope..



Now this might not really mean much down the road, but for the moment it is definitely worth taking note of.

[Aric Dunn]

26 miles could be the difference between Cat 4/5 winds and Cat2/3 winds.

i can assure everyone that the "point" is getting the full force all 145mph ....

[Derek Ortt]

that fix was to the center of the eye

the eyewall was only about 5 miles offshore as of 30 minutes ago... it may be onshore now

[Aric Dunn]

and it seems to be wobbling a little more north .. it may be do to the interaction with the mountain..

anymore of that and kingston will get much stronger winds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html



latest image ...

eyewall is on the coast!!!!

[HarlequinBoy]

Is that southern point populated? I hope not. =\

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I do notice is that Dean is currently tracking along the far northern end of the 18z model guidance envelope..



Now this might not really mean much down the road, but for the moment it is definitely worth taking note of.

Youre right. None of the models show it making landfall on Jamaica which it is doing right now. If this takes the northern path, southern Mexico maybe a little too far south. If this thing goes thru the Caymans, the track COULD shift a good deal north, although the present movement is unlikely to keep up for much longer and could just be a NW wobble

[Zardoz]

Is that southern point populated? I hope not. =\

TWC just said it is getting a seven-foot storm surge and 30-foot waves.

[JonathanBelles]

The Heart of Dean

[KBBOCA]

The double eyewall is showing up really clearly in the radar now. Interesting to watch.

[aguaviva]

yes- eyewall on the south coast and I the northward wobble does not seem to be over yet...Boy I am having Hugo flashbacks here...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah another EWRC is starting. Maybe because of land and some dry air. Once it moves away from Jamica it could finally come together enough to become a cat5.

[cycloneye]

Esto se hace como un servicio publico para aquellos miembros que estando en este foro son minoria porque la vasta majoria habla ingles para ayudarlos con cualquier informacion pertinente sobre los preparativos,como ests el tiempo para cuando este pasando Dean y mas.

This is done to help those members who dont know plenty of english know all the important information about the preparations before Dean arrives,Observations as Dean passes thru and much more.

[RL3AO]

Is that southern point populated? I hope not. =\

Google earth shows some small villages.

[jwayne]

seems to be closing the gap on the ULL over the last 3 hours or so? This really is a foot race between those two.

[cycloneye]

72 hours



Anyone is not interested anymore in the GFS?

[wx247]

I was waiting for it to be posted. Thanks Luis!

[Aquawind]

that fix was to the center of the eye

the eyewall was only about 5 miles offshore as of 30 minutes ago... it may be onshore now

The winds are higlhy variable in each quadrant. However the strongest eyewall with that outer band is blasting the southern coastline with at least Cat3 winds I would assume looking at the radar and sat data. The inner wall is not the strongest so I think they are getting the worst Dean has to offer at this point..

[KWT]

Not when its already too far south at 6hrs!!!
Should make any difference really in the long term set-up but truely the GFS is ignorant to the fact is now heading WSW like it shows at 6hrs!!

[Aquawind]

Is that southern point populated? I hope not. =\

Google earth shows some small villages.

Plenty of people.. Hopefully not in the lowlands or coastline..


http://www.jamaicancaves.org/jamaica-road-map.jpg

[jlauderdal]

that fix was to the center of the eye

the eyewall was only about 5 miles offshore as of 30 minutes ago... it may be onshore now

The winds are higlhy variable in each quadrant. However the strongest eyewall with that outer band is blasting the southern coastline with at least Cat3 winds I would assume looking at the radar and sat data. The inner wall is not the strongest so I think they are getting the worst Dean has to offer at this point..

the NE quad consistently has the highest winds, period.