CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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Hurrilurker
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9621 Postby Hurrilurker » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:29 pm

The eyewall looks a lot closer on radar than it does on either visible or IR satellite...weird.

EDIT: When I say closer I mean more north, closer to Jamaica.
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#9622 Postby aguaviva » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:31 pm

it would seem based on the chart super imposed on top of that Cuban radar that the eye has reached 17.5 or 17.6. That would be a super wobble from the 5 pm position. Anyone else has a better explanation?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9623 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:32 pm

Folks,go to Talking Tropics forum and read the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9624 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:Folks,go to Talking Tropics forum and read the 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.


yep its interesting.. I was wondering when they were going to mention the possible development NE of the islands
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#9625 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:34 pm

We can see another eyewall inside the larger and stronger outer wall on radar. Portland Point and Lionel Town are getting blasted from Dean.. The water building up in the bay now..

http://www.jamaicancaves.org/jamaica-road-map.jpg
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#9626 Postby aguaviva » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:34 pm

Why do I think I will not be happy when reading the outlook?
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9627 Postby Janie2006 » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:35 pm

The Cuban radar at least gives us another picture of what's happening near and on Jamaica, especially with the eyewall. However, given the distance of the radar site from Dean, it isn't really indicative of the torrential rain pounding parts of Jamaica right now.
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Re:

#9628 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:36 pm

Aquawind wrote:We can see another eyewall inside the larger and stronger outer wall on radar. Portland Point and Lionel Town are getting blasted from Dean.. The water building up in the bay now..

http://www.jamaicancaves.org/jamaica-road-map.jpg


that the old eyewall
agreed the point is probably seeing the full 145mph while Jamaica on the last report was 81 mph .. but is likely over hundred

but any more wobble north puts kingston in the kill zone
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Derek Ortt

#9629 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:36 pm

the center of the eye is only about 35 miles off shore. I fixed it on satellite

it is very very close
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#9630 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:39 pm

eye is now just 26 miles offshore
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9631 Postby whereverwx » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:41 pm

Dean is really taunting Jamaica right now.

Image
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LeeJet

#9632 Postby LeeJet » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:41 pm

Derek, so will Jamaica get the worst winds?
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Derek Ortt

Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9633 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:41 pm

center of eye fixed via 21:15 GOES12-IR at just 26 miles south of Jamaica at 17.38N 76.92W

the eywall should move onsore in about 20-40 minutes and I expect total destruction where landfall occurs
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9634 Postby aguaviva » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:42 pm

Fasten your seat belts. They are one wobble away from catastrophic damage....
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Re:

#9635 Postby mutley » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:42 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:eye is now just 26 miles offshore

I wouldn't want to be on that piece of land that protrudes from the south shore.
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9636 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:45 pm

Image
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9637 Postby Zardoz » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:45 pm

aguaviva wrote:Fasten your seat belts. They are one wobble away from catastrophic damage....

They have to be getting it right now. Jamaicans will remember this day for the rest of their lives.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN -Threat Area -Yucatan Peninsula

#9638 Postby Cozumel » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:45 pm

Luis,
Gracias por la advertencia. Ciertamente no bajaremos la guardia pues sabemos que aún se encuentra sobre Jamaica y que los huracanes tienen comportamientos erraticos. Si caminas por las calles de Cozumel ves a la gente colocando tablas en sus casas y los comercios en la zona turistica ya han tomado sus debidas precauciones. El cielo esta nublado, pero sin lluvia y hay poca brisa.
Saludos y muchas gracias por abir el espacio en español.

Thanks for the warning. We will not let our guard down as we know that its still over Jamaica and that hurricanes have an odd behavior. If you walk down the streets in Cozumel you'll see the people boarding up their homes and every store in the business district has already taken the necessary precautions. The sky is cloudy, though not raining, and there's a bit of breeze.
Greetings and thanks so much for opening the space for Spanish posts
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Re: Major Hurricane DEAN: (5 PM page 262) Discussions, Analysis

#9639 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:46 pm

26 miles could be the difference between Cat 4/5 winds and Cat2/3 winds.
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Re: HURRICANE DEAN - Threat Area - Jamaica, Caymans, Hispanola

#9640 Postby jinftl » Sun Aug 19, 2007 4:46 pm

Following the eye on the radar, given the current direction, seems to put Grand Cayman in a bit more precarious spot....
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