CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

a southward shift is terrible for Mexico

There are major cities along the southern GOM coast. Ther eis hardly anyone between Tampico and Matamoros, and this looks to hit south of Tampico

Diana hit near Veracruz in 1990 as a cat 2, left 75,000 homeless and killed 139

[sau27]

I personally think the Clips is going to be the closest to being correct of all the models at this particular time. No need to flame me... I know there are almost no people that agree with me and I'll be more than happy to be wrong about this.

Just staring out with that this is my own opinion not and nothing else.
I kind of want to agree. I don't have as much in depth knowledge about these things and the over all pattern as most of the people do here but theres something about this one that feels a bit screwy to me. Houston has missed soooooo many times its got to end at some point. My reasoning for my feeling is
1. I have read on another forum that the ULL is now only crawling along and could get cut off between the high over the SE US and one out in west TX. I don't know if the overall pattern from this summer matters any more but it sure seemed like there were quite a few ULL's that got cut of and hung around Texas for quite a while.
2. another reason i feel this could change is that well i just feel funny about this one. how often is it that models get a consensus 4 or 5 days out and how often is that that a storm precisely follows the forecast track the whole way through its life time. It would just seem like Dean could be setting up for a "made you look" situation and well how ironic would it be that once it becomes too late to have smooth evacuations and other preparations and once people let their guard down dean suddenly changes course.

Either this one is going to be a pretty big achievement in long range forecasting or a big uh-oh in the end.

[Derek Ortt]

they nheed a Hurricane Watch, not a TS watch. They seem to be focusing directly on the center path, not the cone of uncertainty

[TampaFl]

5:00pm location:

[marcane_1973]

I know alot of people were dissing on the GFS but this is the model that nailed it from the start. Congrats to GFS!!! It won this round See how it does with the next storm

[Aric Dunn]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html


WHOA KINGSTON IS NOW GETTING POUNDED AS I SAID IT WOULD WHEN THE WINDS SWITCHED

SE 81mph

[Derek Ortt]

Cuban radar shows the eyewall about to move onshore

[Aric Dunn]

There is going to be some very significant damage.....!!! I imagine the winds will get stronger as well ..

[mgpetre]

I know alot of people were dissing on the GFS but this is the model that nailed it from the start. Congrats to GFS!!! It won this round See how it does with the next storm

Three or four days out is definately too early to declare a winner. You may be right, but I think saying that this storms forecasting is over and let's see how it does on the next one is much more alarming of a thing to do than to make outlier predictions that may or may not come true.

[tolakram]

I have read on another forum that the ULL is now only crawling along

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

It's moving at about the same speed Dean is. Look for yourself.

[artist]

when is recon going to be back in? thought it was leaving for it at 4:45

[artist]

link please Derek

[Derek Ortt]

Center of the eye is only 35 miles offshore of the little peninsula in central Jamaica

[Aric Dunn]

Strongest winds for kingston occurring now for for the next couple hours





Northern EYEWALL about to brush the southern coast

[Aric Dunn]

link please Derek

kingston

SE 81mph...
as the WIND switched SE strongest winds for kingston next couple of hours
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

[tolakram]

Eye is moving NW, at least in that radar image. Hopefully that will stop.

[TampaFl]

link please Derek

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif

[jinftl]

It looks like the northern eye wall might graze the southern part of the coast of the island, west of Kingston...that part looks like it dips below 18'N.

Now is not the time for a northward wobble....

[gotoman38]

when is recon going to be back in? thought it was leaving for it at 4:45

I don't think they've started transmitting yet - expecting a start at any time now.

[Aric Dunn]

It looks like the northern eye wall might graze the southern part of the coast of the island, west of Kingston...that part looks like it dips below 18'N.

Now is not the time for a northward wobble....

right because it would put kingston very close the east EYEWALL..

they are probably experiencing over 100mph now....

but a wobble would bring them close to the 145mph


latest report SE 81 MPH