Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[JTD]

This is NOT an official forecast.

Personally, I have made a decision. I do not believe it will survive Hispaniola. This is a classic scenario where there is a tremendous amount of speculation about future intensity, possible paths, etc. and the LLC ultimately decouples from the convection because of strong mid to UL shear. I don't think this system will threaten Florida; it may not even survive before it may reach Cuba or the Bahamas. The latest visible loops tell the tale. I know I am taking a risk, but I'm willingly making this call.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Finally, why are people so focused on FL? We should be concerned about HISPANIOLA.

Like Debby 2000.

[destruction92]

This is NOT an official forecast.

Personally, I have made a decision. I do not believe it will survive Hispaniola. This is a classic scenario where there is a tremendous amount of speculation about future intensity, possible paths, etc. and the LLC ultimately decouples from the convection because of strong mid to UL shear. I don't think this system will threaten Florida; it may not survive before its may reach Cuba or the Bahamas. The latest visible loops tell the tale. I know I am taking a risk, but I'm willingly making this call.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Finally, why are people so focused on FL? We should be concerned about HISPANIOLA.

Because, the MAJORITY of the people on this board live in the United States and few have properties in Hispaniola. Storm2k is a U.S. based company. Sure, my prayers go out to Hispaniola, but if we're going to think this way then I say that Asian countries which get ABSOLUTELY SLAMMED each year by major typhoons get the same respect and concern that we give to Central America and the Caribbean.

[JTD]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 282059
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

EARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE
AIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS
ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4. THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED
TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE.

FOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL
PROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS
AND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS
DIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
JOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD. THE
NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY.

EVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. THE AMOUNT OF
INTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES
STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
THAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA.
THEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED
BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS
NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE
THE WORD KNOLL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.8N 71.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 72.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 19.1N 74.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 20.2N 75.0W 60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
48HR VT 30/1800Z 21.4N 75.8W 45 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 31/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 75.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 29.0N 73.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

I think we all need to seriously consider the following wild card scenario: What happens if Noel stalls???

Then we would be looking at a disaster in Haiti. Probably big enough to get Noel retired.

Gordon wasn't retired and he killed over 1,000 in Haiti in 1994...

[RL3AO]

I think we all need to seriously consider the following wild card scenario: What happens if Noel stalls???

Then we would be looking at a disaster in Haiti. Probably big enough to get Noel retired.

Gordon wasn't retired and he killed over 1,000 in Haiti in 1994...

If Gordon happened today I think he would be retired because of the extra attention/media coverage of every little storm now.

[MiamiensisWx]

Because, the MAJORITY of the people on this board live in the United States and few have properties in Hispaniola. Storm2k is a U.S. based company. Sure, my prayers go out to Hispaniola, but if we're going to think this way then I say that Asian countries which get ABSOLUTELY SLAMMED each year by major typhoons get the same respect and concern that we give to Central America and the Caribbean.

Well, some of the islands are United States territories (i.e. Puerto Rico). Additionally, these people may have some strong ties to others in non-United States islands and territories/countries.

OT: By the way, do you concur with my recent analysis on Noel?

[Derek Ortt]

This is going to survive Hispaniola. I do not see the logic behind that forecast, unless this moves at a 350 heading, or farther to the right

[cycloneye]

And in Puerto Rico (U.S. Commenwelth)we haved been with drenching rains since friday,with 5 deaths related to the bad weather.

[jinftl]

This is NOT an official forecast.

Personally, I have made a decision. I do not believe it will survive Hispaniola. This is a classic scenario where there is a tremendous amount of speculation about future intensity, possible paths, etc. and the LLC ultimately decouples from the convection because of strong mid to UL shear. I don't think this system will threaten Florida; it may not survive before its may reach Cuba or the Bahamas. The latest visible loops tell the tale. I know I am taking a risk, but I'm willingly making this call.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Finally, why are people so focused on FL? We should be concerned about HISPANIOLA.

Because, the MAJORITY of the people on this board live in the United States and few have properties in Hispaniola. Storm2k is a U.S. based company. Sure, my prayers go out to Hispaniola, but if we're going to think this way then I say that Asian countries which get ABSOLUTELY SLAMMED each year by major typhoons get the same respect and concern that we give to Central America and the Caribbean.

Thanks you!! Couldn't have said it better...people are generally going to be concerned with weather systems that may effect them...where they live..and alot of us are from Florida.

[NcentralFlaguy]

This looks to be moving very little right now, (maybe its just my eyes,but it looks stalled or drifting). A side note: Its taking a beating right now!

[RL3AO]

Good thing we have recon or else we would be looking at a 35kt TS...maybe.

[destruction92]

Because, the MAJORITY of the people on this board live in the United States and few have properties in Hispaniola. Storm2k is a U.S. based company. Sure, my prayers go out to Hispaniola, but if we're going to think this way then I say that Asian countries which get ABSOLUTELY SLAMMED each year by major typhoons get the same respect and concern that we give to Central America and the Caribbean.

Well, some of the islands are United States territories (i.e. Puerto Rico). Additionally, these people may have some strong ties to others in non-United States islands and territories/countries.

So basically we're talking about very indirect relations.

Guam is a U.S. territory and gets slammed by much more powerful systems...the U.S. probably has stronger ties with Japan, China, and Taiwan then it will ever have with Hispaniola. Yet, the media and some people like you give more attention to tropical systems threatening Caribbean nations then category 5 hurricanes pillaging the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.

[destruction92]

And in Puerto Rico (U.S. Commenwelth)we haved been with drenching rains since friday,with 5 deaths related to the bad weather.

But there aren't any mountains in PR like there are in Haiti. They will probably end up with 10 times the destruction than PR.

This would be a good year for PR to have a mini drought to allow the saturated grounds to go back to normal.

[boca]

I'm 90% certain that Florida will not be concerned about this storm. It looks like it will get eaten up by the mountains over Haiti.What I don't understand is that if the high is so strong why is it moving NNW into the high and not west.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MiamiensisWx]

So basically we're talking about very indirect relations.

Guam is a U.S. territory and gets slammed by much more powerful systems...the U.S. probably has stronger ties with Japan, China, and Taiwan then it will ever have with Hispaniola. Yet, the media and some people like you give more attention to tropical systems threatening Caribbean nations then category 5 hurricanes pillaging the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.

You have made valid points, but I pay much more attention to WPAC systems than most people. You may have not noticed my older posts on WPAC tropical cyclones.

[destruction92]

I am pretty certain that Noel has stalled as of now...this may have big implications for its future track.

The next advisory will probably go from stating "NNW at 4 mph" to "drifting NNW".

[caribepr]

Well gosh. I don't think this is a big mystery. If there were people on this board from Asia etc. then we'd be more tied in to those systems. I know I would. However, this board DOES have some long time people from the islands of the Caribbean, so we do tend to raise our tiny heads on occasion...this is one of those occasions. Silly us! Does compassion have lines of demarcation? I didn't know!

[destruction92]

So basically we're talking about very indirect relations.

Guam is a U.S. territory and gets slammed by much more powerful systems...the U.S. probably has stronger ties with Japan, China, and Taiwan then it will ever have with Hispaniola. Yet, the media and some people like you give more attention to tropical systems threatening Caribbean nations then category 5 hurricanes pillaging the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.

You have made valid points, but I pay much more attention to WPAC systems than most people. You may have not noticed my older posts on WPAC tropical cyclones.

Your right...I never read your posts.

What do you think about Noel stalling? Does that seem plausible right now...look at the visible loop and tell me what you think. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[hial2]

God knows I'm not being callous,but due to topography, shantytowns and other factors, I would venture to say that many Haitians die during any type/strenght t/c that goes thru Haiti...Using human deaths and misery as a measuring stick, you could make an argument that every named storm that goes near Haiti should be retired..

[NcentralFlaguy]

So basically we're talking about very indirect relations.

Guam is a U.S. territory and gets slammed by much more powerful systems...the U.S. probably has stronger ties with Japan, China, and Taiwan then it will ever have with Hispaniola. Yet, the media and some people like you give more attention to tropical systems threatening Caribbean nations then category 5 hurricanes pillaging the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan.

You have made valid points, but I pay much more attention to WPAC systems than most people. You may have not noticed my older posts on WPAC tropical cyclones.

Your right...I never read your posts.

What do you think about Noel stalling? Does that seem plausible right now...look at the visible loop and tell me what you think. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I concur, It looks as though there is little if any movement at this time