CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sjones]

This morning TWC had only Mexico in his projected path.At the top of this hour,it included Corpus Christi.They must be catching on the Erin's influence faster than the other models

I too am watching TWC, have been all morning, and I haven't heard anything from them regarding Corpus Christi being included.

[HouTXmetro]

Also of note, the ULL is beggining to move NW towards the TX coast and not SW. Not sure of any sgnificance that might have on Deans track.

[Ivanhater]

Last few frames bumping north ...bad news for Jamaica...it was looking better with the due west..but each bump north is huge for Jamaica

[weatherrabbit_tx]

This morning TWC had only Mexico in his projected path.At the top of this hour,it included Corpus Christi.They must be catching on the Erin's influence faster than the other models

there were some on this board asking that eariler today

[M_0331]

Can Erin have become a TS due to a lot of Texas being flooded?

[Portastorm]

The remnant low of Erin should have little, if any, affect on Dean. I don't know what TWC is on about!

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, there's absolutely no doubt this is going into Mexico now...Yesterday I thought Texas still had a chance for landfall, but it's all Mexico now......Based on how Africa is looking, I'm sure the USA will have PLENTY of storms to worry about down the road over the next few week, so those who enjoy the rush of hurricanes hitting the USA, will get it. It's only just beginning..Regarding Dean, I think the track is pretty solidified now, the best hope is that it stays even further south than they are showing so that it will be over water alot less once it emerges from Yucatan.

[gotoman38]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191638
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 42 20070819
162800 1654N 07401W 6967 03149 0057 +085 +072 172055 056 037 004 00
162830 1656N 07402W 6968 03146 0057 +085 +073 171056 057 039 005 00
162900 1658N 07402W 6970 03147 0063 +080 +079 168056 057 040 005 00
162930 1700N 07403W 6967 03152 0063 +081 +078 166057 058 039 005 00
163000 1702N 07404W 6963 03153 0060 +082 +077 163057 058 039 005 00
163030 1705N 07405W 6968 03150 0061 +083 +073 159057 058 039 005 00
163100 1707N 07405W 6972 03148 0060 +081 +072 159059 060 041 006 00
163130 1709N 07406W 6970 03150 0062 +085 +075 157059 060 042 005 00
163200 1711N 07407W 6961 03156 0067 +081 +078 153060 061 043 004 00
163230 1713N 07408W 6970 03150 0071 +077 +077 151063 065 044 006 00
163300 1715N 07409W 6969 03151 0068 +079 +079 149067 068 045 005 00
163330 1717N 07410W 6968 03151 0068 +079 +079 150068 069 045 005 00
163400 1719N 07411W 6971 03149 0068 +081 +075 151068 069 045 004 03
163430 1720N 07413W 6968 03154 0068 +082 +074 147065 067 999 999 03
163500 1720N 07415W 6973 03141 0060 +084 +070 146063 064 045 006 03
163530 1720N 07417W 6967 03150 0055 +085 +075 144063 064 047 007 00
163600 1719N 07419W 6970 03142 0049 +089 +072 143063 064 047 007 00
163630 1719N 07421W 6967 03146 0043 +091 +075 144065 065 048 007 00
163700 1718N 07423W 6963 03145 0048 +083 +078 148068 069 046 007 00
163730 1718N 07425W 6971 03135 0055 +074 +074 147068 070 048 017 03
$$

[Sanibel]

Still on a steady path south of island.

Warm tops should keep any burst from happening for now.

Good hurricane about to hit south shore of Jamaica.

[HURAKAN]

[Stratosphere747]

It's down to the ULL, and it is behaving just like it was forecast to do. I'm almost speechless with how well the GFS has behaved with this storm since coming back to the Mexico solution days ago. Impressive!

[HouTXmetro]

Yep, there's absolutely no doubt this is going into Mexico now...Yesterday I thought Texas still had a chance for landfall, but it's all Mexico now......Based on how Africa is looking, I'm sure the USA will have PLENTY of storms to worry about down the road over the next few week, so those who enjoy the rush of hurricanes hitting the USA, will get it. It's only just beginning..Regarding Dean, I think the track is pretty solidified now, the best hope is that it stays even further south than they are showing so that it will be over water alot less once it emerges from Yucatan.

Mexico is the likely place of landfall, but remember things can change quickly in the Tropics. Other scenarios are worthy of discussion.

[theworld]

[DelrayMorris]

Can Erin have become a TS due to a lot of Texas being flooded?

Not sure what that means. Are you asking if Erin became a Tropical Storm? (She did, that's when she got the name). Or are you asking if she can become a TS again because of all the flooding? (No.)

[ConvergenceZone]

This morning TWC had only Mexico in his projected path.At the top of this hour,it included Corpus Christi.They must be catching on the Erin's influence faster than the other models

Who knows, perhaps they have to stretch the cone that far North for legal reasons...
I don't think they actually believe it has a chance of landfalling there though.

[lrak]

Just mentioning CC TX is worrying me too death. It seems IM40YRO that all the previous thousands of storms we've watched 75% go N of the projected path, why is that?

[southerngale]

The Wunderground cone extends to about Corpus Christi as well, but the projected path is still well into Mexico. I think Central to SE Texas should be breathing a sigh of relief today.

The NHC has been superb so far.

[Sjones]

TWC just stated that Texas is pretty much out of the woods...Mexico Landfall it is!

[M_0331]

Thanks for answer.

[ronjon]

I think the NHC has been dead on with the track of this storm and their projected path lines up well with the consensus of the models. This call was really fairly easy with a strong subtropical ridge building westward and zero influence of any mid-latitude systems. The only hiccup was that ULL but its behaved acording to the models moving away in tandem with the cyclone. I don't see any surprises with the path and look for this storm to not affect any part of the lower 48.