CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Portastorm]

Erin looks better now than it ever did.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/avn-l.jpg

Wow, that really is something out of the "Now here's something you don't see every day" category!! I just took a radar peek out of OKC and indeed, Erin appears quite healthy. Somehow I think the models missed that one.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[jrod]

000
URNT15 KNHC 191358
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 26 20070819
134800 1625N 07512W 6968 03011 9910 +079 +079 324074 075 061 009 00
134830 1626N 07510W 6968 03003 9894 +081 +081 323079 081 064 010 00
134900 1627N 07509W 6969 02982 9871 +085 +085 321085 089 065 009 00
134930 1628N 07508W 6970 02970 9858 +083 +083 320091 092 070 040 03
135000 1630N 07507W 6967 02955 9865 +063 +063 316092 094 074 023 05
135030 1631N 07506W 6973 02926 9990 +063 +999 314090 092 080 038 01
135100 1632N 07505W 6951 02924 9990 +066 +999 324101 111 088 029 01
135130 1633N 07504W 6968 02879 9990 +074 +999 333096 104 092 022 05
135200 1634N 07503W 6967 02857 9990 +082 +999 333084 088 091 034 05
135230 1635N 07502W 6962 02844 9683 +106 +106 318075 078 089 010 00
135300 1636N 07500W 6958 02825 9640 +124 +124 313079 081 091 009 00
135330 1637N 07459W 6964 02793 9607 +125 +120 311081 083 092 005 00
135400 1638N 07458W 6969 02759 9575 +124 +121 312087 088 091 003 00
135430 1640N 07457W 6973 02712 9535 +122 +122 309091 093 083 006 00
135500 1641N 07455W 6972 02666 9497 +109 +109 307094 095 083 019 00
135530 1642N 07454W 6971 02611 9990 +100 +999 301096 100 088 020 01
135600 1643N 07453W 6980 02543 9347 +126 +126 298059 072 083 025 05
135630 1645N 07452W 6967 02531 9309 +149 +149 299037 042 043 006 00
135700 1647N 07451W 6973 02504 9282 +154 +150 301025 030 032 006 03
135730 1648N 07450W 6967 02499 9257 +166 +138 314010 015 021 006 03
$$


I am about to step out for a few hours, it is someone elses turn to copy and paste.

[marcane_1973]

I was expecting to wake up to at least a minimum cat5. Some good news for Jamaica. Still gonna take a bad hit. The overall satellite presentation does not impress me that much this morning. Seems like Dean has gotten more compact and should have actually expanded a little bit more especially having gone through another ERC. I am starting to wonder if Dean has hit his peak. I know he has more time till he gets near the Yucatan with some hot water ahead but I have a feeling Dean may never reach cat5 strength now and level off here on out. What you guys think?

[jrod]

The heat content is insane near Jamaica, I do not think Dean has reached it's peak yet. The intensity models(i know how bad they can be) are still calling for significant strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

As you look at the graphic remember that the image is updating and that the hurricane is moving, but the old plots are not. Therefore, you may get the false sense that for example, 141 kts in the NE quadrant, when in reality it was in the NW quadrant but since the hurricane has moved.

[Aquawind]

The ERC continues.. the eye is clearing out and is larger..not much to stop it from strengthening or disrupring reoganization other than the island itself. I think it still has a good chance at Cat5 with this first ERC having little impact thus far..

[wsquared77]

That's what I like to see.. Well at least they are planning.. Don't confuse yourself they will need the help even if it's not a direct hit..

http://www.jis.gov.jm/foreign_affairs/h ... LORIDA.asp

The Jamaica Consulate General and the Diaspora Foundation Advisory Board, Southern United States are co-ordinating emergency relief for Jamaica, in light of the threat posed by Hurricane Dean.

Drop off points have been set up at several churches, including Holy Family Episcopal Church in North Miami, Kendall Community Church in Kendall, and
Holy Sacrament Episcopal Church in Pembroke Pines.

Items being requested include non-perishable food items, batteries, flashlights, first aid kits, battery operated radios, and bottled water.

Persons interested in making donations can make cheques payable to the Jamaica Consulate General (Hurricane Relief) and mailed to the office at 25 Southeast Second Avenue, Suite 609, Miami, FL 33131.

For further information, persons can call the Consulate office at 305-374-8431, extensions 223 and 232.

Diaspora Advisory Board member for the Southern USA, Marlon Hill, is urging members of community associations throughout the Diaspora to be on the alert in their specific communities to collaborate effectively, as preparations are put in place.

One of the churches listed (Kendall Community Church)is the one I attend and my husband works for. If anyone would like more information on location etc. please let me know.

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm going to guess that Dean hit some cooler waters just as the ERC started and this slowed down the process. As Dean nears the warmer waters near Jamaica the ERC should finish and Dean will strengthen quickly. I really hope Dean takes a hard left turn and stays away from Jamaica but right now it doesn't look like that will happen.

[Starburst]

It looks like the high maybe squeezing him a little and the ULL is giving him a little hair cut

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[fasterdisaster]

Convection firing up again.

[marcane_1973]

The heat content is insane near Jamaica, I do not think Dean has reached it's peak yet. The intensity models(i know how bad they can be) are still calling for significant strengthening.

Yeah it sure is pretty high there. Funny though last night Dean looked more like a Hugo or Floyd and now it looks like an Andrew with that classic compact buzzsaw look. Dean has gone through many changes. I would say he has taken on the presentation and form of every type of Hurricane possible so far. You don't see that alot.

[Aquawind]

We have a pretty big eye now..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[fasterdisaster]

I still can't see missing Jamaica to the south, it honestly looks straight headed for the island.

[WindRunner]

Well, we seem to have another plane flying towards Dean on a very, very low path.

URNT15 KNHC 191413
AF305 0804A DEAN HDOB 19 20070819
140130 2019N 08221W 9793 00312 0144 +256 +236 063017 017 999 999 03
140200 2019N 08220W 9793 00314 0147 +256 +234 060016 016 999 999 03
140230 2018N 08219W 9793 00317 0150 +256 +234 061015 016 999 999 03
140300 2018N 08218W 9794 00319 0153 +256 +236 052016 018 999 999 03
140330 2016N 08218W 9794 00317 0151 +256 +230 056019 019 999 999 03
140400 2015N 08218W 9794 00320 0155 +258 +228 057020 021 999 999 03
140430 2014N 08219W 9794 00328 0164 +256 +234 055021 021 999 999 03
140500 2012N 08219W 9794 00336 0173 +256 +236 053022 022 999 999 03
140530 2011N 08220W 9785 00368 0200 +256 +238 050021 022 999 999 03
140600 2010N 08220W 9797 00372 0216 +256 +240 052020 021 999 999 03
140630 2008N 08221W 9793 00382 0224 +256 +238 051021 022 999 999 03
140700 2007N 08221W 9794 00366 0207 +256 +238 051021 022 999 999 03
140730 2006N 08222W 9794 00339 0176 +256 +236 053022 022 999 999 03
140800 2004N 08222W 9793 00341 0177 +256 +238 049021 022 999 999 03
140830 2003N 08223W 9794 00340 0177 +256 +236 051020 021 999 999 03
140900 2002N 08224W 9794 00347 0185 +256 +234 052021 021 999 999 03
140930 2000N 08224W 9794 00343 0181 +256 +232 051021 021 999 999 03
141000 1959N 08225W 9793 00342 0179 +256 +234 050021 021 999 999 03
141030 1957N 08225W 9794 00340 0177 +256 +236 051021 022 999 999 03
141100 1956N 08226W 9793 00341 0177 +256 +240 048021 022 999 999 03


BTW - I'd be posting things, but I'm about to leave as well . . .

[Stephanie]

I heard that all flights have been cancelled now, for obvious reasons.

Mide Seidel from TWC is there to report. I swear that one of these days we're going to be hearing about how one of their mets was killed during a hurricane. What the heck are they thinking???

God bless all of you that are in Jamaica. PLEASE check in when you can.

[canetracker]

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=uw4&domain=amr&period=720&incr=30&rr=900&banner=uhmet&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

A few comments from looking at this sat pic. Looks like Dean is riding under the high, the upper level low is not moving as fast as it was yesterday. Looks like high pressure is trying to build in around central Texas area from the remnants of Erin.

[drezee]

331
URNT15 KNHC 191418
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 28 20070819
140800 1702N 07442W 6977 02717 9548 +121 +121 130126 127 121 000 00
140830 1703N 07441W 6960 02768 9577 +126 +114 131122 123 119 000 00
140900 1704N 07439W 6973 02782 9601 +133 +110 131119 122 121 000 00
140930 1705N 07438W 6963 02814 9638 +118 +118 128114 115 118 000 00
141000 1706N 07437W 6954 02849 9681 +086 +086 137119 132 117 007 01
141030 1707N 07436W 6979 02853 9990 +066 +999 139141 145 111 028 01
141100 1708N 07435W 6975 02882 9990 +059 +999 132131 134 103 029 01
141130 1709N 07434W 6966 02912 9990 +053 +999 130132 133 101 026 01
141200 1710N 07433W 6963 02937 9990 +057 +999 132127 129 093 025 01
141230 1711N 07432W 6971 02943 9990 +058 +999 134125 126 093 036 05
141300 1712N 07431W 6963 02969 9870 +067 +067 139121 122 089 013 03
141330 1713N 07430W 6973 02975 9990 +063 +999 142118 120 083 022 01
141400 1714N 07428W 6969 02999 9990 +057 +999 133115 116 081 027 01
141430 1715N 07427W 6970 03008 9990 +047 +999 130114 116 077 022 01
141500 1716N 07426W 6969 03022 9962 +049 +049 128109 112 076 031 05
141530 1716N 07425W 6969 03031 9963 +056 +056 130107 107 073 009 00
141600 1717N 07424W 6968 03041 9959 +067 +067 130106 107 072 009 00
141630 1718N 07423W 6968 03049 9962 +072 +072 131102 104 069 009 00
141700 1719N 07422W 6969 03056 9975 +069 +069 133100 100 067 010 00
141730 1720N 07421W 6968 03067 9983 +069 +069 134097 097 065 010 00
$$

[tolakram]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... splay.html

This captures the ERC and what looks like to be re-intensification pretty well.

[msbee]

Luis
here is a link that lists several Mexican radio stations web sites.
I don't know which are live, but maybe you can check them out.
Barbara

http://radiostationworld.com/Locations/ ... .asp?m=qr~

[wxwatcher91]

145kts ^^^