Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[brunota2003]

Next flight reaches the center at 2 am:

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 29/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 29/0300Z
D. 16.1N 76.0W
E. SFC TO 10,000FT FROM 0500Z TO 0900Z

[Blown Away]

The models zig zagging around, is that due to the steering currents getting weak? Seems the models want to bring Noel between E Bahamas and Fl Keys, but the NNW movement now won't come anywhere near that.

[JTD]

...Noel a little stronger as it approaches Hispaniola...

a Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has
been extended northward to include the entire coast of Haiti.

At 500 PM EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for portions of southeastern
Cuba in the provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Guantanamo...
and Holguin. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was
located near latitude 16.8 north...longitude 71.9 west or about 125
miles...205 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about
320 miles...515 km...southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph...7 km/hr. A
continued motion toward the north-northwest with a slight increase
in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center of Noel will move near or over southwestern
Haiti tonight.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 60 mph...95
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185
km...mainly to the north from the center.

The minimum central pressure recently reported by the aircraft was
996 mb...29.41 inches.
Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.

Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with
possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. Additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during
the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.8 N...71.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

[Vortex]

18Z NAM continues west and seems reasonable. So far the NAM has been on the money. The UKMET/ECMWF/GFS/NAM all bring Noel into the NW carribean. This appears more likely....In fact I expect to see Noel in the vicinity of 20N/80W..

[JTD]

NNW and 60 mph at 5

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 60 mph...95
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.


Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.8 N...71.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb

[Nimbus]

A weaker storm won't respond to the upper level winds as much. The difference should be evident between the shallow BAMS and deep BAMD. Rapid intensification could be delayed till it approaches Cuba. It is going to take a little time for the shear to decrease and the circulation to tighten up. Still think the NHC will keep the track east of Miami for consistancy but the right turn may be delayed.

[Brent]

Florida is out of the cone!

[destruction92]

18Z NAM continues west and seems reasonable. So far the NAM has been on the money. The UKMET/ECMWF/GFS/NAM all bring Noel into the NW carribean. This appears more likely....In fact I expect to see Noel in the vicinity of 20N/80W..

what does this mean in terms of U.S. landfall implications?

[Blown Away]

18Z NAM continues west and seems reasonable. So far the NAM has been on the money. The UKMET/ECMWF/GFS/NAM all bring Noel into the NW carribean. This appears more likely....In fact I expect to see Noel in the vicinity of 20N/80W..

Not according to the NHC.

[cycloneye]

Goodbye to Noel for a Florida landfall.

[RL3AO]

Gotta hand it to Cuba, they don't mess around with tropical cyclones.

AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...
AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[Vortex]

For now they have abandoned the rest of the solutions and have decided to go with the GFDL/Climo...NOT set in stone.

[Blown Away]

The NHC track is following the GFDL model, almost exactly.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM hot of the press


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Vortex]

18Z NAM Hot of the press


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[destruction92]

I think we all need to seriously consider the following wild card scenario: What happens if Noel stalls???

[RL3AO]

I think we all need to seriously consider the following wild card scenario: What happens if Noel stalls???

Then we would be looking at a disaster in Haiti. Probably big enough to get Noel retired.

[destruction92]

I think we all need to seriously consider the following wild card scenario: What happens if Noel stalls???

Then we would be looking at a disaster in Haiti. Probably big enough to get Noel retired.

We all already know that there is going to be catastrophic flooding in Haiti. That's a no-brainer.
I meant to incite long term tracking speculation.

[MiamiensisWx]

This is NOT an official forecast.

Personally, I have made a decision. I do not believe it will survive Hispaniola. This is a classic scenario where there is a tremendous amount of speculation about future intensity, possible paths, etc. and the LLC ultimately decouples from the convection because of strong mid to UL shear. I don't think this system will threaten Florida; it may not even survive before it may reach Cuba or the Bahamas. The latest visible loops tell the tale. I know I am taking a risk, but I'm willingly making this call.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Finally, why are people so focused on FL? We should be concerned about HISPANIOLA.

[Tertius]

18Z NAM hot of the press


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well now there's an outlier. There seems to be a significant amount of disagreement amongst the models. Weak steering?