Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Downdraft]

the Lake will only recover with a massive flood. That is what is needed to raise the Lake levels. By lowering the Lake artifically by 35%, we need a major surplus (devastating flood) to allow the Lake to recover to the pre cluster you know what levels

Everyone is talking about south Florida and Lake O but has anybody taken a look at what's going on in Georgia? The predictions up there are really dire and if it keeps going the whole state is ready to go up in a puff of smoke.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes what is going on in Georgia is dire, but the lake is exceptionally low and needs the rain as well.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 282007
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 18 20071028
195430 1648N 07143W 9760 00207 9998 +194 +194 046032 035 043 006 00
195500 1649N 07142W 9770 00197 9995 +208 +208 043036 036 043 008 00
195530 1650N 07142W 9772 00197 9996 +205 +205 042033 034 044 005 00
195600 1651N 07141W 9770 00197 9997 +196 +196 042031 033 049 011 00
195630 1652N 07140W 9771 00198 9998 +198 +198 048024 027 052 015 00
195700 1653N 07139W 9765 00204 0003 +206 +206 037029 031 042 013 00
195730 1653N 07138W 9782 00185 9994 +213 +213 030034 037 045 010 00
195800 1654N 07137W 9771 00195 9993 +223 +220 031032 035 045 002 00
195830 1655N 07136W 9766 00202 9994 +223 +220 035032 033 043 004 00
195900 1656N 07135W 9771 00199 9997 +231 +220 037031 032 042 007 00
195930 1657N 07134W 9774 00200 0000 +229 +220 038029 030 043 007 00
200000 1658N 07133W 9765 00207 0002 +225 +220 037027 028 044 009 00
200030 1659N 07132W 9774 00200 0006 +202 +202 043027 028 053 015 00
200100 1700N 07131W 9774 00206 0010 +201 +201 037021 024 043 048 00
200130 1701N 07130W 9779 00197 0009 +198 +198 035018 025 055 057 00
200200 1702N 07129W 9784 00193 0005 +200 +200 039046 047 053 044 00
200230 1703N 07128W 9757 00217 0004 +201 +201 037044 045 053 040 00
200300 1703N 07127W 9768 00209 0006 +205 +205 039040 042 052 032 00
200330 1704N 07126W 9776 00201 0007 +209 +209 036039 042 052 025 03
200400 1704N 07125W 9784 00195 0006 +215 +215 033039 042 051 020 00
$$
;

55 kt SFMR

[Cyclenall]

recon ahs confirmed my intrepretation of the satellite imagery.

We also have a somewhat symmetric windfield. This is not typical of a highly sheared TC

I agree, it looks worse then it actually is.

[MiamiensisWx]

It's easy to detect the reasons as to why Noel is experiencing problems. UL wind vectors indicate restricted outflow (100-500 mb levels). Additionally, visible imagery indicates some signs that the LLC is becoming slightly exposed.

GOES:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

CIMSS mid to upper-level wind vectors:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html

[brunota2003]

the Lake will only recover with a massive flood. That is what is needed to raise the Lake levels. By lowering the Lake artifically by 35%, we need a major surplus (devastating flood) to allow the Lake to recover to the pre cluster you know what levels

Everyone is talking about south Florida and Lake O but has anybody taken a look at what's going on in Georgia? The predictions up there are really dire and if it keeps going the whole state is ready to go up in a puff of smoke.

How about western NC? At least one town has LESS than *100* days of water left. Thats it!

[wxman57]

recon ahs confirmed my intrepretation of the satellite imagery.

We also have a somewhat symmetric windfield. This is not typical of a highly sheared TC

I agree, it looks worse then it actually is.

Visible satellite imagery shows the center exposed on the southwest side of the convection now. Southwest wind shear continues. Recon keeps reporting those 58kt FL winds from an hour and a half ago as the max found. It's definitely less organized than earlier this morning.

Again, just an observation about what I see now, I'm not saying it's dissipating or anything like that. Just a temporary weakening phase it went through.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 282008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 28/19:49:30Z
B. 16 deg 37 min N
071 deg 55 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 48 kt
E. 285 deg 032 nm
F. 040 deg 047 kt
G. 282 deg 019 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 25 C/ m
J. 26 C/ 305 m
K. C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 OB 13
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NW QUAD 18:47:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;

[MiamiensisWx]

Everyone is talking about south Florida and Lake O but has anybody taken a look at what's going on in Georgia? The predictions up there are really dire and if it keeps going the whole state is ready to go up in a puff of smoke.

I agree. I stated that the Southeast needs widespread persistent precipitation from FL through GA and the Carolinas.

By the way, thanks for confirming my thoughts, wxman57! Unfortunately, "weaker" doesn't make a difference for Hispaniola. Instability will support widespread convection as Noel's center moves closer to the island.

[cycloneye]

This radar from Eastern Cuba will be very helpful to see where the center will be tracking in that area.The quality of the radar doesnt compare with the ones that the NWS has in all the offices in the .U.S. and Puerto Rico,but at least you can see movements of the clouds and rain.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 282017
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 19 20071028
200430 1704N 07123W 9776 00203 0007 +226 +220 036030 032 042 015 03
200500 1705N 07122W 9777 00201 0006 +230 +220 044029 034 044 012 00
200530 1706N 07121W 9766 00212 0012 +221 +212 036026 029 043 012 00
200600 1706N 07119W 9769 00212 0009 +231 +220 031022 025 042 012 00
200630 1706N 07118W 9771 00211 0011 +228 +220 023018 022 038 011 00
200700 1707N 07116W 9764 00218 0012 +224 +220 032009 014 037 010 00
200730 1707N 07115W 9774 00212 0012 +235 +220 092009 011 033 007 00
200800 1707N 07113W 9769 00214 0011 +237 +220 110011 012 033 007 00
200830 1708N 07112W 9773 00211 0013 +236 +220 108011 012 032 007 03
200900 1707N 07110W 9759 00226 0014 +235 +220 111011 012 032 005 03
200930 1707N 07109W 9772 00215 0015 +240 +220 110015 015 031 005 00
201000 1706N 07108W 9771 00215 0014 +238 +220 106016 016 032 004 00
201030 1705N 07107W 9769 00217 0015 +238 +220 105015 016 031 003 00
201100 1704N 07105W 9771 00216 0016 +239 +220 111016 016 031 003 00
201130 1703N 07104W 9766 00220 0015 +240 +220 109015 016 030 003 00
201200 1703N 07103W 9771 00217 0016 +241 +220 119014 014 029 004 00
201230 1702N 07102W 9769 00218 0016 +241 +220 126014 015 030 002 00
201300 1701N 07100W 9771 00215 0016 +244 +220 136013 014 030 002 00
201330 1700N 07059W 9770 00217 0016 +244 +220 141013 013 029 002 00
201400 1700N 07058W 9770 00218 0016 +244 +220 143012 013 028 001 03
$$
;

[Vortex]

Slight disruption as a result of the Higher Terrain...In fact it's moving more wnw than anything presently and will likely re-fire deep convection over the center later tonight. Still think this moves just SW of the Haitain Peninsula and slips in between Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.

[Vortex]

This radar from Eastern Cuba will be very helpful to see where the center will be tracking in that area.

I forgot about that radar..Excellent source later tonight and Monday.

[cycloneye]

The Latest at 20:02 UTC:

[alan1961]

Stu,

Miami VS NY Giants across the pond today

at wembley stadium, London

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 282027
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 20 20071028
201430 1659N 07056W 9770 00219 0016 +245 +220 151014 014 028 000 00
201500 1659N 07055W 9771 00219 0017 +248 +220 157013 014 028 000 00
201530 1658N 07053W 9768 00220 0018 +246 +220 157011 013 026 000 00
201600 1658N 07052W 9771 00219 0018 +245 +220 157012 014 028 000 00
201630 1657N 07050W 9769 00220 0018 +241 +220 150012 013 029 000 00
201700 1657N 07049W 9770 00220 0018 +245 +220 162014 015 028 000 00
201730 1657N 07047W 9766 00222 0018 +245 +220 172016 017 027 000 00
201800 1656N 07046W 9772 00218 0018 +249 +220 177016 017 026 000 00
201830 1656N 07044W 9769 00221 0018 +245 +220 169013 015 027 000 00
201900 1655N 07043W 9771 00220 0019 +244 +220 174013 014 027 000 00
201930 1655N 07041W 9770 00222 0020 +245 +220 182014 014 027 000 00
202000 1655N 07040W 9770 00223 0021 +245 +220 184016 016 027 000 03
202030 1655N 07038W 9769 00223 0021 +243 +220 187015 015 027 000 00
202100 1655N 07036W 9768 00223 0021 +244 +220 190017 018 029 006 00
202130 1655N 07035W 9771 00221 0021 +235 +220 192017 019 032 013 03
202200 1654N 07033W 9779 00214 0022 +238 +220 150011 013 033 013 03
202230 1654N 07032W 9765 00226 0021 +240 +220 157015 017 999 999 03
202300 1656N 07031W 9766 00226 0022 +240 +220 157016 016 025 002 03
202330 1658N 07031W 9772 00221 0024 +236 +220 153016 017 029 004 00
202400 1659N 07031W 9768 00227 0025 +239 +220 162018 019 029 003 00
$$
;

[Cyclenall]

recon ahs confirmed my intrepretation of the satellite imagery.

We also have a somewhat symmetric windfield. This is not typical of a highly sheared TC

I agree, it looks worse then it actually is.

Visible satellite imagery shows the center exposed on the southwest side of the convection now. Southwest wind shear continues. Recon keeps reporting those 58kt FL winds from an hour and a half ago as the max found. It's definitely less organized than earlier this morning.

Again, just an observation about what I see now, I'm not saying it's dissipating or anything like that. Just a temporary weakening phase it went through.

I do see the center now exposed just now. It looked like the shear wasn't as strong this morning, is there is sudden change in that?

[Sanibel]

The convection is more pushed off to the NE by what looks like shear. I assume the center is drifting slowly along WNW south of Hispaniola. Could just be a dvorak flux prior to improvement.

996 is hurricane border pressure. If the convection alligns again hurricane won't be long to follow.

[Derek Ortt]

from the coordinates that the recon just reported, the center is very near the blow up of cold cloud tops that is expanding to the south on IR.

It is definately not intensifying, but I think this is transient

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 282036
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 21 20071028
202430 1701N 07031W 9773 00223 0026 +231 +220 138016 016 030 002 00
202500 1701N 07031W 9773 00223 0026 +231 +220 130018 019 031 001 00
202530 1704N 07032W 9772 00225 0026 +234 +220 126021 021 032 000 03
202600 1706N 07032W 9762 00235 0027 +235 +220 129020 021 030 004 03
202630 1707N 07034W 9770 00226 0027 +230 +220 124019 020 033 005 00
202700 1708N 07035W 9772 00224 0027 +230 +220 120017 020 033 006 00
202730 1709N 07036W 9777 00219 0028 +225 +220 113020 028 045 014 00
202800 1710N 07038W 9768 00229 0028 +218 +218 084031 035 045 016 03
202830 1712N 07038W 9764 00233 0030 +211 +211 085033 034 044 015 00
202900 1713N 07039W 9777 00223 0032 +202 +202 078036 037 051 027 00
202930 1715N 07039W 9770 00228 0033 +199 +199 081039 040 052 035 00
203000 1716N 07040W 9770 00231 0035 +205 +205 079036 037 047 025 00
203030 1718N 07040W 9773 00230 0037 +203 +203 078037 039 045 026 00
203100 1719N 07041W 9769 00236 0040 +203 +203 081039 040 042 036 03
203130 1721N 07041W 9767 00238 0039 +200 +200 080039 040 999 999 03
203200 1721N 07040W 9771 00233 0036 +216 +216 074034 035 046 016 00
203230 1721N 07038W 9771 00232 0037 +219 +219 073031 033 043 015 03
203300 1722N 07037W 9772 00232 0038 +208 +208 075032 034 043 015 03
203330 1723N 07036W 9558 00427 0036 +191 +191 080032 036 999 999 03
203400 1723N 07035W 9283 00677 0041 +177 +177 084038 039 999 999 03
$$

Ascending - mission complete.