INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[RL3AO]

In a way, this reminds me of Irene's development in 1999. Sat was very impressive but the aircraft found similar readings to today. When it developed, it went from nothing to near hurricane in about 18 hours

Which is why I think the NHC should upgrade it 3 hours ago.

[HarlequinBoy]

Just a note, The Weather Channel already has Jeff Morrow in Port Aransas.

[sealbach]

how much rain would houston get from this...potentially?

[Javlin]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

[Extremeweatherguy]

how much rain would houston get from this...potentially?

Not exactly sure, but an earlier AFD mentioned possibly 3-5". That could all change though depending on the exact track and strength of this system.

[Stormcenter]

Wow pretty impressive wave ( ) I must say.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Incident_MET]

Are there no VDMs because it very poorly defined?

I'd personally perfer to wait until a VDM before upgrading

There have been plenty of storms upgraded without a vortex message. Grace was. She was upgraded by satellite and sfc obs...recon hadn't made it there yet....and when they did...they had a terrible time finding the center. Systems are (or used to be) upgraded all the time if it was tropical and a closed low. You didn't need a vortex. In my opinion...that is a mistake. Especially when you are starting down the barrel of the news cycle and people going to bed. Be a forecaster. If they honestly don't think it is going to develop...then don't upgrade it and wait for hard data before you do...and I am cool with that...because that is being a forecaster. If...however...you are just waiting for data...and you think it will eventually (while people are asleep)...and if it fits the criteria of TD's that have been upgraded time and time again in the past...then pull the trigger.

That is the right choice. It is the right choice for all the EOM officials out there and the public at large. Because most of them are going to bed tonight without a warning and if explosive deepening happens over-night...the average joe is going to wake up in South Texas tomorrow and be SHOCKED.

So my personal opinion is this: It looks better than other systems we have upgraded...I think it will be a TS...so there is no harm in calling it a 30 mph TD before people go to bed and putting out some watches. News casters pay attention to that more than they do the tropical weather outlook and the NHC should know it.

AFM, Im with you on this. The system needs an upgrade before the evening news. Relying only on Tropical weather outlook for info instead of an advisory with associated watches gives more credence to the potential for intensification as well as communicating the potential threats to the coast.

[Nimbus]

In the sunset visibles you could see the high cirrus clouds outflowing clockwise. The center of the anticyclone is right over that burst of convection.

[jasons2k]

This is just a little observation -

On this evening's radar, the presentation of the seabreeze is the boldest/thickest I have ever seen it. I've never seen it look like this, eerily strange.

Also, some of the dying showers & mid-level moisture being picked-up moving from LA are moving really fast to the SW...

[RL3AO]

Unless they don't expect it to strengthen, issuing an advisory helps protect life and property. IMO.

[CrazyC83]

At a minimum, they should put out warnings even if there is no tropical cyclone...

[Derek Ortt]

cannot issue warnings if there is no TC

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hopefully they come through and give this an 11pm upgrade. With 30-36mph surface winds reported by Recon, a pressure down to near 1006mph and a closed circulation this clearly meets the criteria for a TD. IMO.

[Kludge]

I don't know about you guys, but if I worked at the NHC and had the choice between being known forever as...

1) The idiiot who gave a name to an open wave or
2) The idiot who didn't upgrade an obvious TD that became a stong TS overnight and surprised coastal folks

...I would choose 1) every day. Maybe it's just me.

[RL3AO]

cannot issue warnings if there is no TC

It would come in handy in situations like this.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know about you guys, but if I worked at the NHC and had the choice between being known forever as...

1) The idiiot who gave a name to an open wave or
2) The idiot who didn't upgrade an obvious TD that became a stong TS overnight and surprised coastal folks

...I would choose 1) every day. Maybe it's just me.

Open wave? According to AFM and the recon reports this has a closed circulation..thus it is not really an "open" wave.

[CrazyC83]

I don't know about you guys, but if I worked at the NHC and had the choice between being known forever as...

1) The idiiot who gave a name to an open wave or
2) The idiot who didn't upgrade an obvious TD that became a stong TS overnight and surprised coastal folks

...I would choose 1) every day. Maybe it's just me.

It has happened twice - Mike in 1950 and Kendra in 1966.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

[Kludge]

I don't know about you guys, but if I worked at the NHC and had the choice between being known forever as...

1) The idiiot who gave a name to an open wave or
2) The idiot who didn't upgrade an obvious TD that became a stong TS overnight and surprised coastal folks

...I would choose 1) every day. Maybe it's just me.

Open wave? According to AFM and the recon reports this has a closed circulation..thus it is not really an "open" wave.

Read carefully...I agree it's a TC....what's the danger in being over precautious when it's this close to shore?

[CrazyC83]

Derek and AFM I look at cloud track sometimes as a signal to movement and they seem to be going NNW towards TX/LA line is that wrong?Sure 12-20hrs from now they might be going NW or WNW but is that a decent assumption for motion maybe in the next 12hrs?Kevin

I'd be surprised if it would go as far East as LA/TX border, but, it wouldn't be shocking. I'm calling around Galveston right now....a Cat. 1 hurricane. It won't be a horrible event, but, I see a signifcant system moving in...and I don't particularly see it moving very fast all the way into the Coast, which could spell a great deal of rain for SW and SCentral LA, IMO. We'll see....I'm only watching clouds.

I'm thinking a fast-mover between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, perhaps slipping north late...