CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KBBOCA]

There's a lot of helpful information about the Caymans on Storm Carib in the "Pleas for Help" forum (which is basically a discussion forum like Storm2K where folks can post questions). 4 pages of discussion, including news of various hotels that are closing during the storm, having already evacuated their guests by charter flights...

The Caymans seem to be taking this seriously and have put plans into high gear. Of course they have a similarly devastating storm as a very recent memory, which gives added incentive!

http://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?2,5600

[HURAKAN]

[vacanechaser]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

it is not weakening... with a pressure drop to 920... aint happening...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[weatherguru18]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

Cat 3? 920mb pressure?? Ok...I'll be quiet before I insult somebody. Cat. 3...HA HA HA

[dwg71]

I think everyone is in agreement that Jamaica will get hammered. There's some disagreement whethter it will be from the north side or the south side or right down the middle.

The Caymans are next, only the question is more critical since they don't have the mountain ridges like Jamaica.

After that, it's a crapshoot. I don't believe anything after that. We can speculate and predict, but we don't know anything.

Its far from a crapshoot, the NHC has a good grasp on Dean and have had a forecast almost identical for 3 days now.

Mexico 60%
Border Area 25%
Border to Corpus 10%
North of Corpus to LA 5%
LA east < than 1

My opinions only..

[MusicCityMan]

I didn't feel like getting nasty but I almost did lol.. I didn't think the winds weren't going to catch up till after the ERC. My bad people..

This is 1 nasty storm regardless of 155 or 150.. 5 mph isn't going to make too big of a difference right now..

[dwg71]

I think Jamica may be spared...

North or South???

[Jam151]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

Cat 3? 920mb pressure?? Ok...I'll be quiet before I insult somebody. Cat. 3...HA HA HA

Perhaps you could explain a quintuple wind maxima first.

[CrazyC83]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

Cat 3? 920mb pressure?? Ok...I'll be quiet before I insult somebody. Cat. 3...HA HA HA

Katrina at landfall was Cat 3 with a 920 pressure...

[wxmann_91]

But the category of a storm is based on its winds, not its pressure. It could theoretically have a 900 mb pressure, but if recon measures flight level winds of 115 kt in the strongest quadrant, it's a Cat 3.

[Normandy]

Derek.

If that plot is correct, then Dean has hurricane fore winds extending outwards of close to 110 miles from the center. Close to Katrina size.

And Folks, you guys need to stop quibbling over the 115-120 kt surface readings (133kt Flight Level).....This is undergoing an ERC and remains a Category 4 hurricane (borderline 3/4).....that is impressive.

The NHC didn't drop the winds for good reason....this is temporary and there is NOTHING to suggest Dean is weakening.

[wx247]

I think Jamica may be spared...

Huh? Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the center. I don't see any way this spares Jamaica unfortunately. The best case scenario beyond falling apart... is going north of Jamaica.

[ROCK]

I think Jamica may be spared...

North or South???

is it going to matter? regardless its going to be close enough to cause loss of life....

[dwg71]

I think Jamica may be spared...

North or South???

I agree, I wanted to know how they were going to get spared, i dont see any way possible.



is it going to matter? regardless its going to be close enough to cause loss of life....

[artist]

Jamaica has too - they are going to have an address to the nation by the PRime Minister here shortly

[CrazyC83]

545
URNT15 KNHC 190058
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 22 20070819
004830 1521N 07035W 6975 03090 0027 +063 +063 211064 066 052 008 00
004900 1522N 07036W 6967 03094 0004 +076 +076 212057 059 051 008 00
004930 1523N 07038W 6969 03087 9997 +077 +077 219062 063 053 007 03
005000 1525N 07039W 6966 03084 9990 +076 +076 219064 064 055 008 00
005030 1526N 07040W 6967 03072 9997 +065 +065 219068 069 056 050 03
005100 1527N 07041W 6963 03074 9992 +062 +062 223064 066 058 018 00
005130 1528N 07043W 6969 03057 9973 +072 +072 223065 066 060 016 00
005200 1530N 07044W 6967 03057 9962 +075 +075 221067 067 064 008 00
005230 1531N 07045W 6971 03044 9958 +073 +073 223072 073 066 010 00
005300 1532N 07046W 6964 03047 9943 +077 +077 221073 075 067 011 00
005330 1533N 07048W 6960 03040 9934 +075 +075 222071 073 068 039 03
005400 1534N 07049W 6967 03021 9930 +069 +069 217073 074 068 017 00
005430 1536N 07050W 6956 03023 9929 +061 +061 213076 077 072 030 00
005500 1537N 07051W 6978 02990 9990 +060 +999 228078 082 078 034 01
005530 1538N 07053W 6953 03000 9990 +066 +999 245083 092 080 029 05
005600 1539N 07054W 6991 02946 9869 +075 +075 250076 078 079 026 05
005630 1540N 07055W 6972 02957 9847 +083 +083 246070 072 999 999 03
005700 1542N 07056W 6960 02967 9819 +099 +099 246079 083 079 043 03
005730 1543N 07057W 6963 02949 9825 +085 +085 244084 087 082 018 00
005800 1544N 07058W 6964 02929 9813 +081 +081 239082 083 079 022 00
$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

Local 13 said we were out of the clear, i nearly fell over. If they keep saying this and it takes a turn it could go south quick. Everyone needs to watch this.

I just looked at the forecast track of Dean and used the distance meter at the top of it and came to the conclusion that AT ITS CLOSEST (if Dean were to stay on the exact 5pm track) the hurricane's center would be about 400-450 miles from Houston. If we assume that the tropical force winds would extend outward to 200-300 miles at that point, then that means we would be somewhere between 100-250 miles from the edge of them. Now that is a pretty long distance, but considering the average 4 to 5 day NHC average track error is 225-350 miles, it is way too close for comfort. Nobody in Houston should be letting their guard down just yet.

[sphelps8681]

1. I was wondering what the current status is on the ULL/Florida?

2. If the ULL slows down coming west will Dean move ahead of it and start going more North?

3. Or if Dean increases it's speed will Dean move out ahead of it and start moving North?

If so when and where could this happen? I am in SE TX and just want to make sure we are out of the woods or not?

Or is this not still a game player? And what about the TD over Texas?

Thanks

[KBBOCA]

KBBOCA - do you have the actual links to the webcams. I can't find any. Thanks

Jamaica1
http://www.cebullaassociates.net/cam4.htm

Jamaica2
http://www.cebullaassociates.net/cam3.htm

Jamaica3
http://www.cebullaassociates.net/cam2.htm

Cayman1
http://www.reefgrill.com/pages/netcam.html

Cayman2
http://www.oceanfrontiers.com/_/CIDmm/PGNmm-webcam

Cayman3:
http://caymanchillin.com/caymanchillin-live.htm

I opened all of these to verify that the links work, but I didn't really watch to verify if they are actually live and online at the moment...

[RL3AO]

920mb strengthening cat 3...does that sound weird to anyone else?