Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images
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CrazyC83
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:2KT shy of being a hurricane
we need the 64KT SFMR... flight level winds are not going to get an upgrade as we have surface wind data
It seems this is holding its own, or maybe even strengthening, in spite of the shear it is facing...there was never any data today that supported Hurricane Karen...
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Derek Ortt
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
I am impressed that this seems to be right about what we all thought looking at available data- just below hurricane strength.
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CrazyC83
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URNT15 KWBC 270004
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 29 20070926
235500 1255N 04414W 6960 03152 9984 +108 +108 179036 037 044 002 00
235530 1253N 04415W 6960 03152 9985 +109 +109 181036 036 044 002 00
235600 1251N 04416W 6958 03154 0008 +109 +109 180032 032 043 000 03
235630 1250N 04417W 6962 03148 0003 +112 +112 181024 026 040 001 03
235700 1250N 04419W 6959 03153 9993 +120 +120 181020 023 039 002 00
235730 1250N 04421W 6959 03152 9986 +125 +125 189016 016 037 000 00
235800 1251N 04424W 6957 03151 9981 +127 +126 195017 018 032 001 03
235830 1251N 04426W 6957 03147 9968 +134 +129 198013 015 029 000 00
235900 1252N 04428W 6959 03144 9950 +146 +128 229010 011 031 000 03
235930 1253N 04429W 6960 03139 9954 +141 +132 225006 007 031 000 03
000000 1255N 04431W 6962 03137 9954 +140 +134 191005 006 028 001 00
000030 1256N 04433W 6957 03139 9941 +150 +127 293003 008 999 999 03
000100 1255N 04435W 6959 03137 9929 +160 +123 333011 013 999 999 03
000130 1254N 04436W 6960 03136 9936 +155 +124 340014 015 999 999 03
000200 1252N 04437W 6956 03143 9937 +157 +118 350012 014 999 999 03
000230 1250N 04438W 6958 03146 9933 +167 +103 355013 013 999 999 03
000300 1248N 04439W 6962 03142 9942 +164 +084 355017 019 999 999 03
000330 1246N 04440W 6957 03152 9951 +158 +082 353020 023 999 999 03
000400 1244N 04442W 6959 03156 9966 +150 +090 353019 020 999 999 03
000430 1242N 04443W 6958 03159 9969 +151 +085 342020 022 999 999 03
993mb pressure, SFMR no longer recording
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 29 20070926
235500 1255N 04414W 6960 03152 9984 +108 +108 179036 037 044 002 00
235530 1253N 04415W 6960 03152 9985 +109 +109 181036 036 044 002 00
235600 1251N 04416W 6958 03154 0008 +109 +109 180032 032 043 000 03
235630 1250N 04417W 6962 03148 0003 +112 +112 181024 026 040 001 03
235700 1250N 04419W 6959 03153 9993 +120 +120 181020 023 039 002 00
235730 1250N 04421W 6959 03152 9986 +125 +125 189016 016 037 000 00
235800 1251N 04424W 6957 03151 9981 +127 +126 195017 018 032 001 03
235830 1251N 04426W 6957 03147 9968 +134 +129 198013 015 029 000 00
235900 1252N 04428W 6959 03144 9950 +146 +128 229010 011 031 000 03
235930 1253N 04429W 6960 03139 9954 +141 +132 225006 007 031 000 03
000000 1255N 04431W 6962 03137 9954 +140 +134 191005 006 028 001 00
000030 1256N 04433W 6957 03139 9941 +150 +127 293003 008 999 999 03
000100 1255N 04435W 6959 03137 9929 +160 +123 333011 013 999 999 03
000130 1254N 04436W 6960 03136 9936 +155 +124 340014 015 999 999 03
000200 1252N 04437W 6956 03143 9937 +157 +118 350012 014 999 999 03
000230 1250N 04438W 6958 03146 9933 +167 +103 355013 013 999 999 03
000300 1248N 04439W 6962 03142 9942 +164 +084 355017 019 999 999 03
000330 1246N 04440W 6957 03152 9951 +158 +082 353020 023 999 999 03
000400 1244N 04442W 6959 03156 9966 +150 +090 353019 020 999 999 03
000430 1242N 04443W 6958 03159 9969 +151 +085 342020 022 999 999 03
993mb pressure, SFMR no longer recording
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
26/2345 UTC 12.7N 44.5W T3.0/3.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean
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CrazyC83
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URNT15 KWBC 270014
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 30 20070927
000500 1240N 04444W 6956 03166 9984 +142 +083 323022 023 999 999 03
000530 1238N 04445W 6959 03163 0000 +130 +088 314030 031 999 999 03
000600 1236N 04446W 6959 03166 0009 +125 +085 311033 034 999 999 03
000630 1234N 04447W 6960 03164 0007 +128 +070 310034 035 009 000 00
000700 1232N 04448W 6959 03168 0012 +126 +065 304034 035 013 001 00
000730 1231N 04449W 6958 03170 0012 +129 +047 301032 033 020 001 00
000800 1229N 04451W 6958 03172 0012 +132 +037 299028 031 022 001 00
000830 1227N 04452W 6960 03171 0009 +136 +039 290027 028 024 001 00
000900 1225N 04453W 6959 03174 0009 +137 +039 282026 027 022 000 00
000930 1223N 04454W 6960 03172 0016 +131 +043 282027 028 019 000 00
001000 1222N 04455W 6958 03176 0025 +125 +045 283027 028 015 000 00
001030 1220N 04456W 6959 03177 0042 +111 +064 279028 028 010 000 00
001100 1218N 04457W 6959 03178 0051 +105 +063 280028 028 008 000 00
001130 1217N 04458W 6960 03180 0056 +101 +074 281027 027 008 000 00
001200 1215N 04459W 6958 03182 0059 +100 +070 278026 026 007 000 00
001230 1213N 04500W 6957 03185 0067 +098 +061 275026 026 003 000 00
001300 1211N 04501W 6958 03186 0075 +093 +061 273025 025 004 000 00
001330 1210N 04502W 6958 03191 0077 +094 +060 273023 024 004 000 03
001400 1208N 04503W 6959 03191 0077 +096 +056 279023 023 005 000 00
001430 1206N 04504W 6959 03194 0079 +097 +060 276021 021 004 000 00
SFMR working again.
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 30 20070927
000500 1240N 04444W 6956 03166 9984 +142 +083 323022 023 999 999 03
000530 1238N 04445W 6959 03163 0000 +130 +088 314030 031 999 999 03
000600 1236N 04446W 6959 03166 0009 +125 +085 311033 034 999 999 03
000630 1234N 04447W 6960 03164 0007 +128 +070 310034 035 009 000 00
000700 1232N 04448W 6959 03168 0012 +126 +065 304034 035 013 001 00
000730 1231N 04449W 6958 03170 0012 +129 +047 301032 033 020 001 00
000800 1229N 04451W 6958 03172 0012 +132 +037 299028 031 022 001 00
000830 1227N 04452W 6960 03171 0009 +136 +039 290027 028 024 001 00
000900 1225N 04453W 6959 03174 0009 +137 +039 282026 027 022 000 00
000930 1223N 04454W 6960 03172 0016 +131 +043 282027 028 019 000 00
001000 1222N 04455W 6958 03176 0025 +125 +045 283027 028 015 000 00
001030 1220N 04456W 6959 03177 0042 +111 +064 279028 028 010 000 00
001100 1218N 04457W 6959 03178 0051 +105 +063 280028 028 008 000 00
001130 1217N 04458W 6960 03180 0056 +101 +074 281027 027 008 000 00
001200 1215N 04459W 6958 03182 0059 +100 +070 278026 026 007 000 00
001230 1213N 04500W 6957 03185 0067 +098 +061 275026 026 003 000 00
001300 1211N 04501W 6958 03186 0075 +093 +061 273025 025 004 000 00
001330 1210N 04502W 6958 03191 0077 +094 +060 273023 024 004 000 03
001400 1208N 04503W 6959 03191 0077 +096 +056 279023 023 005 000 00
001430 1206N 04504W 6959 03194 0079 +097 +060 276021 021 004 000 00
SFMR working again.
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Derek Ortt
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CrazyC83
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URNT15 KWBC 270024
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 31 20070927
001500 1204N 04505W 6958 03196 0077 +100 +057 275020 020 005 001 00
001530 1203N 04506W 6958 03198 0079 +099 +057 280020 020 008 001 00
001600 1201N 04507W 6957 03198 0079 +099 +063 279022 023 004 000 00
001630 1159N 04508W 6959 03197 0076 +102 +064 277022 022 003 000 03
001700 1157N 04509W 6958 03200 0076 +103 +064 274021 022 999 999 03
001730 1155N 04510W 6959 03202 0082 +100 +069 278019 019 999 999 03
001800 1154N 04511W 6957 03205 0079 +104 +066 279019 019 999 999 03
001830 1152N 04512W 6960 03203 0087 +100 +058 276019 019 999 999 03
001900 1150N 04513W 6958 03206 0088 +101 +050 275020 021 999 999 03
001930 1148N 04514W 6960 03205 0090 +101 +049 276019 020 999 999 03
002000 1146N 04516W 6960 03206 0085 +104 +056 280018 019 999 999 03
002030 1145N 04517W 6959 03206 0086 +103 +058 279019 020 999 999 03
002100 1143N 04518W 6959 03209 0089 +103 +059 280019 019 999 999 03
002130 1141N 04519W 6959 03210 0095 +099 +064 277018 018 003 000 00
002200 1139N 04520W 6960 03210 0100 +095 +069 272017 018 002 000 03
002230 1137N 04521W 6958 03212 0100 +092 +088 267018 018 999 999 03
002300 1135N 04522W 6957 03214 0097 +097 +079 271017 017 999 999 03
002330 1134N 04523W 6959 03213 0097 +098 +082 274015 016 999 999 03
002400 1132N 04524W 6958 03215 0097 +098 +084 281015 016 004 000 03
002430 1130N 04525W 6958 03216 0104 +094 +088 272014 015 999 999 03
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 31 20070927
001500 1204N 04505W 6958 03196 0077 +100 +057 275020 020 005 001 00
001530 1203N 04506W 6958 03198 0079 +099 +057 280020 020 008 001 00
001600 1201N 04507W 6957 03198 0079 +099 +063 279022 023 004 000 00
001630 1159N 04508W 6959 03197 0076 +102 +064 277022 022 003 000 03
001700 1157N 04509W 6958 03200 0076 +103 +064 274021 022 999 999 03
001730 1155N 04510W 6959 03202 0082 +100 +069 278019 019 999 999 03
001800 1154N 04511W 6957 03205 0079 +104 +066 279019 019 999 999 03
001830 1152N 04512W 6960 03203 0087 +100 +058 276019 019 999 999 03
001900 1150N 04513W 6958 03206 0088 +101 +050 275020 021 999 999 03
001930 1148N 04514W 6960 03205 0090 +101 +049 276019 020 999 999 03
002000 1146N 04516W 6960 03206 0085 +104 +056 280018 019 999 999 03
002030 1145N 04517W 6959 03206 0086 +103 +058 279019 020 999 999 03
002100 1143N 04518W 6959 03209 0089 +103 +059 280019 019 999 999 03
002130 1141N 04519W 6959 03210 0095 +099 +064 277018 018 003 000 00
002200 1139N 04520W 6960 03210 0100 +095 +069 272017 018 002 000 03
002230 1137N 04521W 6958 03212 0100 +092 +088 267018 018 999 999 03
002300 1135N 04522W 6957 03214 0097 +097 +079 271017 017 999 999 03
002330 1134N 04523W 6959 03213 0097 +098 +082 274015 016 999 999 03
002400 1132N 04524W 6958 03215 0097 +098 +084 281015 016 004 000 03
002430 1130N 04525W 6958 03216 0104 +094 +088 272014 015 999 999 03
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wxmann_91
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I have to say, I've been impressed by Karen.
My assertion that this may not become a hurricane, may be wrong.
Shear is still an uncertain variable... but the GFS shows that Karen will be in the right entrance region of a 200mb jet... which will enhance convection.
So even as Karen is sheared, there will still be bursts of convection that will help. And shear may be decreasing in about 5 days.
Not only that, but Karen is looking very healthy with a rather vigorous LLC and impressive outflow (undoubtedly, outflow in eastern quad is right now enhanced by the same TUTT that will eventually shear it).
Last but not least, there is model support for this surviving the trek and becoming a rather impressive system in the central ATL in about a week.
My assertion that this may not become a hurricane, may be wrong.
Shear is still an uncertain variable... but the GFS shows that Karen will be in the right entrance region of a 200mb jet... which will enhance convection.
So even as Karen is sheared, there will still be bursts of convection that will help. And shear may be decreasing in about 5 days.
Not only that, but Karen is looking very healthy with a rather vigorous LLC and impressive outflow (undoubtedly, outflow in eastern quad is right now enhanced by the same TUTT that will eventually shear it).
Last but not least, there is model support for this surviving the trek and becoming a rather impressive system in the central ATL in about a week.
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jasons2k
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Re:
Derek Ortt wrote:the shear vector has turned somewhat this evening from SW to more southerly... may have a UL developing to its SW, making things slightly more favorable
If an ULL forms to its SW, wouldn't that mean a more westward path?
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CrazyC83
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URNT12 KWBC 270017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/0000Z
B. 12 DEG 56 MIN N
44 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3088 M
D. 62 KT
E. 062 DEG 25 NM
F. 151 DEG 68 KT
G. 053 DEG 31 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 11 C/3059 M
J. 15 C/3058 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0112A KAREN OB 08 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 2350Z
MAX SFMR WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 2351Z
SLP FROM DROPSONDE
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/0000Z
B. 12 DEG 56 MIN N
44 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3088 M
D. 62 KT
E. 062 DEG 25 NM
F. 151 DEG 68 KT
G. 053 DEG 31 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 11 C/3059 M
J. 15 C/3058 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0112A KAREN OB 08 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 2350Z
MAX SFMR WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 2351Z
SLP FROM DROPSONDE
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Gustywind
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: CEN ATL: Discussions & Images
HUC wrote:http://aviationweather.gov/data/obs/sat/intl/ir_ICAO-B1_bw.jpg
Nice shot of the whole Atlantic basin,Africa,and east Pacific!!!
Absolutely... very nice shot tkanks for the sat pic HUC!
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wxman57
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Re: Re:
sevenleft wrote:Uhhhh, no. Cat 1 maybe. I would think we see 5-10 knots higher on the N side...so Karen may be at minimal hurricane strength. We'll find out shortly.americanrebel wrote:992 mb would mean at least a Cat 1 if not a Cat 2.
You need to consider the average environmental pressure as well. 992mb near the equator won't produce the same pressure gradient as 992mb near 30N. Looks like a moderate TS now, though I think it may have been a hurricane around 12Z.
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CrazyC83
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URNT15 KWBC 270034
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 32 20070927
002500 1128N 04526W 6958 03217 0107 +092 +085 261014 014 999 999 03
002530 1126N 04527W 6957 03216 0105 +092 +082 257015 015 999 999 03
002600 1124N 04527W 6960 03213 0102 +095 +081 252015 016 999 999 03
002630 1124N 04524W 6959 03215 0102 +096 +079 251016 017 999 999 03
002700 1124N 04522W 6959 03216 0103 +095 +079 250017 017 999 999 03
002730 1124N 04520W 6959 03214 0103 +094 +083 247018 019 999 999 03
002800 1124N 04517W 6959 03214 0103 +094 +086 246019 020 999 999 03
002830 1124N 04515W 6959 03214 0099 +096 +084 241019 019 999 999 03
002900 1124N 04513W 6959 03214 0100 +095 +082 240020 021 999 999 03
002930 1124N 04510W 6959 03213 0101 +094 +082 242021 021 999 999 03
003000 1124N 04508W 6958 03215 0100 +094 +086 238022 023 999 999 03
003030 1124N 04506W 6958 03214 0101 +093 +087 235023 024 999 999 03
003100 1124N 04503W 6958 03213 0100 +094 +087 236024 024 999 999 03
003130 1124N 04501W 6959 03211 0100 +093 +088 232025 026 999 999 03
003200 1124N 04458W 6960 03210 0102 +091 +090 230026 027 999 999 03
003230 1124N 04456W 6961 03209 0103 +090 +088 229027 027 999 999 03
003300 1124N 04454W 6960 03209 0103 +090 +088 230030 031 999 999 03
003330 1124N 04452W 6959 03211 0106 +088 +088 230033 034 999 999 03
003400 1124N 04449W 6959 03211 0107 +088 +087 231032 033 999 999 03
003430 1124N 04447W 6960 03210 0109 +086 +086 230033 034 999 999 03
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 32 20070927
002500 1128N 04526W 6958 03217 0107 +092 +085 261014 014 999 999 03
002530 1126N 04527W 6957 03216 0105 +092 +082 257015 015 999 999 03
002600 1124N 04527W 6960 03213 0102 +095 +081 252015 016 999 999 03
002630 1124N 04524W 6959 03215 0102 +096 +079 251016 017 999 999 03
002700 1124N 04522W 6959 03216 0103 +095 +079 250017 017 999 999 03
002730 1124N 04520W 6959 03214 0103 +094 +083 247018 019 999 999 03
002800 1124N 04517W 6959 03214 0103 +094 +086 246019 020 999 999 03
002830 1124N 04515W 6959 03214 0099 +096 +084 241019 019 999 999 03
002900 1124N 04513W 6959 03214 0100 +095 +082 240020 021 999 999 03
002930 1124N 04510W 6959 03213 0101 +094 +082 242021 021 999 999 03
003000 1124N 04508W 6958 03215 0100 +094 +086 238022 023 999 999 03
003030 1124N 04506W 6958 03214 0101 +093 +087 235023 024 999 999 03
003100 1124N 04503W 6958 03213 0100 +094 +087 236024 024 999 999 03
003130 1124N 04501W 6959 03211 0100 +093 +088 232025 026 999 999 03
003200 1124N 04458W 6960 03210 0102 +091 +090 230026 027 999 999 03
003230 1124N 04456W 6961 03209 0103 +090 +088 229027 027 999 999 03
003300 1124N 04454W 6960 03209 0103 +090 +088 230030 031 999 999 03
003330 1124N 04452W 6959 03211 0106 +088 +088 230033 034 999 999 03
003400 1124N 04449W 6959 03211 0107 +088 +087 231032 033 999 999 03
003430 1124N 04447W 6960 03210 0109 +086 +086 230033 034 999 999 03
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hurricanetrack
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Looks like the shear that has been around for almost all of September will stick around to make sure nothing gets to the United States- or any islands surrounding the U.S. for that matter.
Like Derek said in a post long ago, we may have 15-20 named storms before the season is over.
But, and this is me talking, we still only have three hurricanes and one of them just barely made it in at the buzzer. Not quite what I expected for a raging La Nina season.
However, there is always October and November...right?
Like Derek said in a post long ago, we may have 15-20 named storms before the season is over.
But, and this is me talking, we still only have three hurricanes and one of them just barely made it in at the buzzer. Not quite what I expected for a raging La Nina season.
However, there is always October and November...right?
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CrazyC83
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URNT15 KWBC 270044
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 33 20070927
003500 1124N 04445W 6960 03211 0118 +082 +069 223038 040 999 999 03
003530 1124N 04442W 6959 03211 0116 +082 +075 225037 038 999 999 03
003600 1124N 04440W 6957 03214 0120 +081 +058 219038 039 999 999 03
003630 1124N 04437W 6957 03215 0122 +084 +008 211042 042 999 999 03
003700 1124N 04435W 6961 03210 0123 +081 +026 214042 043 005 000 00
003730 1124N 04433W 6958 03214 0125 +079 +054 214040 041 013 002 00
003800 1124N 04430W 6960 03210 0127 +078 +043 218041 042 017 004 00
003830 1124N 04428W 6960 03211 0128 +079 +025 215042 043 002 000 03
003900 1124N 04426W 6959 03214 0127 +080 +021 214041 042 999 999 03
003930 1124N 04423W 6960 03213 0124 +083 +011 215043 043 999 999 03
004000 1124N 04421W 6961 03211 0126 +082 +010 215043 044 008 000 00
004030 1124N 04419W 6958 03216 0124 +084 +028 213043 044 009 001 00
004100 1124N 04417W 6958 03217 0123 +086 +009 213043 044 005 000 00
004130 1124N 04414W 6959 03215 0124 +085 +010 214043 044 006 001 00
004200 1124N 04412W 6959 03216 0126 +084 +005 212043 043 005 000 00
004230 1124N 04410W 6958 03219 0129 +083 +015 211041 041 005 000 00
004300 1124N 04407W 6959 03216 0129 +082 +019 216043 043 005 000 00
004330 1124N 04405W 6960 03215 0133 +079 +023 216043 044 003 000 00
004400 1124N 04403W 6959 03219 0134 +079 +024 214041 042 004 000 00
004430 1124N 04401W 6959 03219 0130 +084 +003 216041 042 004 000 00
NOAA3 0112A KAREN HDOB 33 20070927
003500 1124N 04445W 6960 03211 0118 +082 +069 223038 040 999 999 03
003530 1124N 04442W 6959 03211 0116 +082 +075 225037 038 999 999 03
003600 1124N 04440W 6957 03214 0120 +081 +058 219038 039 999 999 03
003630 1124N 04437W 6957 03215 0122 +084 +008 211042 042 999 999 03
003700 1124N 04435W 6961 03210 0123 +081 +026 214042 043 005 000 00
003730 1124N 04433W 6958 03214 0125 +079 +054 214040 041 013 002 00
003800 1124N 04430W 6960 03210 0127 +078 +043 218041 042 017 004 00
003830 1124N 04428W 6960 03211 0128 +079 +025 215042 043 002 000 03
003900 1124N 04426W 6959 03214 0127 +080 +021 214041 042 999 999 03
003930 1124N 04423W 6960 03213 0124 +083 +011 215043 043 999 999 03
004000 1124N 04421W 6961 03211 0126 +082 +010 215043 044 008 000 00
004030 1124N 04419W 6958 03216 0124 +084 +028 213043 044 009 001 00
004100 1124N 04417W 6958 03217 0123 +086 +009 213043 044 005 000 00
004130 1124N 04414W 6959 03215 0124 +085 +010 214043 044 006 001 00
004200 1124N 04412W 6959 03216 0126 +084 +005 212043 043 005 000 00
004230 1124N 04410W 6958 03219 0129 +083 +015 211041 041 005 000 00
004300 1124N 04407W 6959 03216 0129 +082 +019 216043 043 005 000 00
004330 1124N 04405W 6960 03215 0133 +079 +023 216043 044 003 000 00
004400 1124N 04403W 6959 03219 0134 +079 +024 214041 042 004 000 00
004430 1124N 04401W 6959 03219 0130 +084 +003 216041 042 004 000 00
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm KAREN: Central ATL: Global & BAM Models
630
WHXX01 KWBC 270055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070927 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000 070928 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 44.6W 14.4N 47.3W 16.0N 49.8W 17.6N 52.2W
BAMD 12.8N 44.6W 14.1N 46.5W 15.8N 47.9W 17.3N 48.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.6W 14.0N 47.0W 15.4N 48.9W 16.5N 50.5W
LBAR 12.8N 44.6W 14.3N 46.4W 16.1N 48.0W 17.3N 49.4W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 0000 070930 0000 071001 0000 071002 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 53.8W 21.0N 57.0W 22.9N 59.4W 24.2N 61.1W
BAMD 18.9N 48.9W 21.4N 49.8W 24.4N 50.5W 27.7N 50.0W
BAMM 17.6N 51.4W 19.2N 53.0W 21.1N 54.3W 22.7N 55.2W
LBAR 18.3N 50.4W 20.2N 52.1W 22.6N 52.9W 24.8N 52.2W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 40.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 150NM
$$
65kts
WHXX01 KWBC 270055
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0055 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070927 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070927 0000 070927 1200 070928 0000 070928 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 44.6W 14.4N 47.3W 16.0N 49.8W 17.6N 52.2W
BAMD 12.8N 44.6W 14.1N 46.5W 15.8N 47.9W 17.3N 48.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.6W 14.0N 47.0W 15.4N 48.9W 16.5N 50.5W
LBAR 12.8N 44.6W 14.3N 46.4W 16.1N 48.0W 17.3N 49.4W
SHIP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS
DSHP 65KTS 68KTS 69KTS 66KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070929 0000 070930 0000 071001 0000 071002 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 53.8W 21.0N 57.0W 22.9N 59.4W 24.2N 61.1W
BAMD 18.9N 48.9W 21.4N 49.8W 24.4N 50.5W 27.7N 50.0W
BAMM 17.6N 51.4W 19.2N 53.0W 21.1N 54.3W 22.7N 55.2W
LBAR 18.3N 50.4W 20.2N 52.1W 22.6N 52.9W 24.8N 52.2W
SHIP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS
DSHP 62KTS 57KTS 53KTS 52KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 42.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 40.4W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 180NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 150NM
$$
65kts
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hurricanetrack
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