CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canegrl04]

I might eat my words later but I'm really starting to think this is Mexico storm. I was pretty convinced Texas was going to get it but the models continue to shift south. Looks like the GFS nailed this one as of a couple of days ago.

Just keep in mind models had Rita pegged as a Mexico hit 4 or 5 days out

[kurtpage]

they dont draw the cone on the uncertainty in that particular forecast...but on the 10 year average that the storm will be in that cone 2/3rds of the time.

yes mu how many hurricanes have we had over the last 10 years....and the 2/3rds number is coming from how far our 5 days, 3 days????

[Dean4Storms]

latest upper level wind flows...

The area between The Western Tip of Cuba and the Eastern tip of Cuba shows winds from South to North....Could this area tend to pull Dean more Northward when he reaches it?

Yes in a way, first Dean would have to speed way up to reach that area, but it would likely only turn Dean more to the NW as the ridge would still be pushing from East. This is sort of what the GFDL was showing Dean doing once in the GOM on yesterdays runs. You must remember that south to north flow is also moving off to the west as the ULL moves WSW and the ridge moves west.

[tolakram]

I might eat my words later but I'm really starting to think this is Mexico storm. I was pretty convinced Texas was going to get it but the models continue to shift south. Looks like the GFS nailed this one as of a couple of days ago.

Just keep in mind models had Rita pegged as a Mexico hit 4 or 5 days out

I've heard this a couple of times now. Does anyone remember why the models were wrong?

[rainman]

they dont draw the cone on the uncertainty in that particular forecast...but on the 10 year average that the storm will be in that cone 2/3rds of the time.

yes mu how many hurricanes have we had over the last 10 years....and the 2/3rds number is coming from how far our 5 days, 3 days????

the cone is drawn for that particular day. for the 3 day forecast the cone doesnt go out as far as the 5 day forecast

[wxmann_91]

I might eat my words later but I'm really starting to think this is Mexico storm. I was pretty convinced Texas was going to get it but the models continue to shift south. Looks like the GFS nailed this one as of a couple of days ago.

Just keep in mind models had Rita pegged as a Mexico hit 4 or 5 days out

The first run, and ONLY the first run, had a Mex hit (extrapolating), and that was 6-7 days out from a landfall. Once Rita began to deepen, the models did a better job initializing it, and they shifted northward.

And also, totally different scenario with Dean. Like comparing apples to oranges.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Extremeweatherguy]

"Horrible bias of the GFS"

GFS + good for s*** .Why is this model taken seriously?

It's performed well with Dean, saw the Caribbean track days ago when everyone else was sold on wrn ATL.

Persistence and trend are keys. In this case both are our friends. Although I was banking on a TX/LA hit before, I am going to shift now to a Mexico track. I overlooked something, and that is the fact that the ridge to the east builds in very quickly after landfall. Dean has a lot of inertia as it will get rather large. If the weakness would remain there, I'd be convinced of a TX hit, but rather, since the weakness closes, timing has to be perfect... which almost never happens.

Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan

...went on to make final landfall in TX?

Storms I think of are Gilbert, Emily, Janet, and Beulah, all of which made final landfall in nrn MX.

Well let's see..

Here are a few storms that did all three of those things and then made landfall in TX or western LA:

Claudette (2003): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Edith (1971): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1942: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1938: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane of 1918: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

[Windtalker2]

Dean4Storms says: Yes in a way, first Dean would have to speed way up to reach that area, but it would likely only turn Dean more to the NW as the ridge would still be pushing from East. This is sort of what the GFDL was showing Dean doing once in the GOM on yesterdays runs. You must remember that south to north flow is also moving off to the west as the ULL moves WSW and the ridge moves west.
Windtalker says: I understand what you are saying but if Dean is moving faster than the ULL, wouldn't the ULL keep the ridge at bay? Thanks for your knowldge in teaching

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is a link to a page concerning the difficulty of calculating the weather... Should prove informative!

http://www.franksingleton.clara.net/nwp.html

[wxmann_91]

Well let's see..

Here are a few storms that did all three of those things and then made landfall in TX or western LA:

Claudette (2003): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Edith (1971): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1942: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1938: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane of 1918: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

sorry, I knew I forgot one criterion.

"Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan
and d) peaked at major hurricane status

...went on to make final landfall in TX?"

[WindRunner]

URNT15 KNHC 181701
AF304 0604A DEAN HDOB 39 20070818
165100 1521N 06841W 6958 03059 9959 +068 +068 208063 065 068 018 01
165130 1522N 06843W 6984 03028 9947 +080 +080 205064 066 062 016 03
165200 1524N 06844W 6964 03045 9919 +094 +085 205068 070 057 013 00
165230 1525N 06845W 6967 03034 9909 +097 +089 204071 073 058 007 00
165300 1526N 06847W 6967 03025 9899 +099 +091 202072 072 056 010 00
165330 1528N 06848W 6966 03018 9893 +095 +088 202074 075 060 007 00
165400 1529N 06850W 6965 03008 9882 +095 +094 201078 081 059 007 00
165430 1530N 06851W 6969 02993 9868 +096 +093 201083 085 065 009 00
165500 1532N 06852W 6964 02988 9871 +082 +082 201083 085 068 009 00
165530 1533N 06854W 6964 02971 9861 +078 +078 201087 090 070 055 03
165600 1534N 06855W 6961 02958 9843 +078 +078 200080 089 076 031 01
165630 1536N 06857W 6962 02941 9805 +090 +090 195081 083 080 033 03
165700 1537N 06858W 6968 02917 9752 +122 +122 199086 088 079 011 00
165730 1538N 06859W 6964 02905 9741 +114 +114 201085 085 075 008 00
165800 1539N 06901W 6967 02882 9708 +123 +113 204087 087 069 006 00
165830 1541N 06902W 6962 02861 9681 +123 +117 206087 088 071 007 00
165900 1542N 06904W 6968 02825 9655 +116 +116 209089 091 071 006 00
165930 1543N 06905W 6972 02787 9613 +122 +116 210096 098 079 004 00
170000 1544N 06906W 6956 02759 9556 +130 +102 210104 107 089 008 00
170030 1545N 06908W 6966 02687 9505 +116 +116 213105 110 093 034 03

Heading in again . . .

[aguaviva]

I agree with msbee. I have been listening to Jamaican radio and they seem to have good organization and information, the issue here will be the quality of the infrastructure and the availability of resources for recovery. I have been to Ocho Rios and it seems to me, based on what I saw there, that on both fronts the answer is: less than what is required to deal with a storm of this magnitude, especially one hitting Kingston head on, as this one is forecast to do.

[Windtalker2]

"Horrible bias of the GFS"

GFS + good for s*** .Why is this model taken seriously?

It's performed well with Dean, saw the Caribbean track days ago when everyone else was sold on wrn ATL.

Persistence and trend are keys. In this case both are our friends. Although I was banking on a TX/LA hit before, I am going to shift now to a Mexico track. I overlooked something, and that is the fact that the ridge to the east builds in very quickly after landfall. Dean has a lot of inertia as it will get rather large. If the weakness would remain there, I'd be convinced of a TX hit, but rather, since the weakness closes, timing has to be perfect... which almost never happens.

Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan

...went on to make final landfall in TX?

Storms I think of are Gilbert, Emily, Janet, and Beulah, all of which made final landfall in nrn MX.

Well let's see..

Here are a few storms that did all three of those things and then made landfall in TX or western LA:

Claudette (2003): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Edith (1971): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1942: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1938: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane of 1918: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

and all those tracks had the Storms south of Jamacia....what would happen to the tracks if the Storms were North of Jamacia as we will probably see in the case of Dean?

[Cape Verde]

Which was the last hurricane named Dean that did all that, and still nailed Texas? You can't name one, can ya?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well let's see..

Here are a few storms that did all three of those things and then made landfall in TX or western LA:

Claudette (2003): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Edith (1971): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1942: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1938: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane of 1918: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

sorry, I knew I forgot one criterion.

"Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan
and d) peaked at major hurricane status

...went on to make final landfall in TX?"

lol. Now trying to change it after I proved you wrong. That shouldn't matter that much though. It just goes to show that the steering patterns can bring storms like these to TX/LA if they please. It doesn't really matter if it peaks at major status in the eastern or central Caribbean.

[tolakram]

and all those tracks had the Storms south of Jamacia....what would happen to the tracks if the Storms were North of Jamacia as we will probably see in the case of Dean?

I don't understand why people are comparing Dean to other tracks? The track is dependent on the weather around the storm, not a previous track.

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 181637
XXAA 68167 99157 70690 04359 99937 26209 16591 00/// ///// /////
92118 25815 18091 85863 22414 20600 70542 15602 24572 88999 77999
31313 09608 81615
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYEWALL 180 SPL 1575N06899W 1619 MBL WND 18594 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 21083 937709 WL150 17591 081 =
XXBB 68168 99157 70690 04359 00937 26209 11850 22414 22708 17008
33696 15000
21212 00937 16591 11928 17587 22922 18596 33915 19098 44850 20600
55764 23074 66696 24572
31313 09608 81615
61616 AF304 0604A DEAN OB 25
62626 EYEWALL 180 SPL 1575N06899W 1619 MBL WND 18594 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 21083 937709 WL150 17591 081 =

Pressure was 937mb w/91kt wind from the SSE in this part of the eyewall.

[fasterdisaster]

Well let's see..

Here are a few storms that did all three of those things and then made landfall in TX or western LA:

Claudette (2003): http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Edith (1971): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1942: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

Hurricane of 1938: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Hurricane of 1918: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

sorry, I knew I forgot one criterion.

"Not to mention, when was the last time a storm which ...
a) formed east of the Lesser Antilles
b) traversed the entire length of the Caribbean
c) made some sort of landfall on the Yucatan
and d) peaked at major hurricane status

...went on to make final landfall in TX?"

Oh please. Like that makes a difference. If anything it would weaken the argument further as major hurricanes move north.

[wxmann_91]

lol. Now trying to change it after I proved you wrong. That shouldn't matter that much though. It just goes to show that the steering patterns can bring storms like these to TX/LA if they please. It doesn't really matter if it peaks at major status in the eastern or central Caribbean.

No, I really did forget. Not trying to cover up anything. Just looking at storms analogous to Dean.

Of course steering patterns can bring storms up to TX/LA. I just don't remember any major ones which have.

Good job on your part with the research.